Dosage: Pedigree & Performance
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Prep Race Pace Parameters for 2005 Kentucky Derby Entries

The following Table displays a variety of pace parameters for possible Derby contenders in 2005 prep races at a mile or more on dirt.  In addition to the horse, race and distance, we have included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times.  These are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 10f, the predicted turn time in a 10f race and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in a 10f race.  The various pace parameters are described here. 

The historical guideline figures for Derby winners since 1973 are :

3Fr %E 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
>=51.56 <=52.08 <=122.34 <=24.94 <=25.33

Cells colored green meet or exceed the guideline figures.  Cells colored red fail to meet the guideline figures.  Horses with multiple entries are indicated by adjacent rows in the same color, either yellow or gray.  Races for each horse are listed in chronological order with the latest race first.
 
Horse Race Dist Slope Int CC EP SP AP 1Fr 2Fr 3Fr TE %E 4f 6f 8f 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
Afleet Alex Arkansas Derby 9.00 0.9963 1.0858 1.00000 54.55 54.62 54.58 54.50 54.63 54.70 109.2 49.95 48.49 72.63 96.73 120.82 24.11 24.08
Afleet Alex Rebel S 8.50 1.0690 1.0349 0.99980 54.35 51.10 52.72 55.19 52.77 47.84 102.2 53.18 47.70 73.58 100.07 127.03 26.49 26.96
Andromeda's Hero Arkansas Derby 9.00 1.0160 1.0737 0.99999 54.24 53.57 53.90 54.50 53.72 52.90 107.1 50.64 48.46 73.17 98.00 122.94 24.84 24.94
Andromeda's Hero Sam F. Davis S 8.50 1.0510 1.0495 0.99990 54.16 51.79 52.97 54.86 52.85 49.42 103.6 52.27 48.11 73.67 99.68 126.02 26.01 26.34
Bandini Blue Grass S 9.00 1.0407 1.0456 0.99968 55.97 53.24 54.60 55.90 56.09 50.51 106.5 52.55 47.01 71.69 96.71 121.99 25.02 25.28
Bandini Fountain of Youth S 9.00 1.0432 1.0438 0.99994 55.56 53.53 54.55 56.09 54.54 51.49 107.1 51.88 46.97 71.70 96.79 122.16 25.09 25.37
Bandini GP Alw 0205 9.00 1.0703 1.0242 1.00000 55.00 52.89 53.94 56.65 51.96 50.77 105.8 51.98 46.62 71.95 97.89 124.30 25.94 26.41
Bellamy Road Wood Memorial S 9.00 1.0410 1.0353 0.99998 56.73 54.98 55.86 57.39 55.46 53.23 110.0 51.58 45.92 70.04 94.49 119.20 24.45 24.71
Bellamy Road GP Alw 0312 8.00 1.0705 1.0141 0.99999 56.41 53.99 55.20 57.89 53.65 51.56 108.0 52.23 45.56 70.33 95.70 121.52 25.37 25.82
Buzzards Bay Santa Anita Derby 9.00 1.0321 1.0515 0.99995 55.62 54.00 54.81 55.93 55.00 52.38 108.0 51.50 47.08 71.55 96.29 121.22 24.74 24.94
Buzzards Bay El Camino Real Derby 8.50 1.0297 1.0519 0.99972 56.20 53.79 54.99 56.14 56.30 51.39 107.6 52.23 46.97 71.30 95.89 120.66 24.58 24.77
Buzzards Bay Risen Star S 8.50 1.0730 1.0279 0.99980 54.85 51.47 53.16 55.79 53.10 48.09 102.9 53.31 47.20 72.92 99.30 126.16 26.37 26.86
Buzzards Bay Golden Gate Derby 8.50 1.0539 1.0351 0.99997 55.46 53.35 54.41 56.41 53.65 51.24 106.7 51.98 46.73 71.64 97.01 122.73 25.37 25.72
Closing Argument Blue Grass S 9.00 1.0556 1.0376 0.99945 55.75 52.18 53.97 55.69 55.88 48.61 104.4 53.40 47.11 72.28 97.92 123.93 25.65 26.01
Closing Argument Holy Bull S 9.00 1.0512 1.0376 0.99998 55.39 53.41 54.40 56.33 53.62 51.42 106.8 51.87 46.83 71.72 97.04 122.70 25.33 25.65
Coin Silver Coolmore Lexington S 8.50 1.0722 1.0263 0.99997 54.79 52.17 53.48 56.20 52.24 49.55 104.3 52.53 46.97 72.55 98.77 125.46 26.21 26.70
Coin Silver GP Alw 0402 9.00 1.0456 1.0438 0.99998 55.15 53.37 54.26 55.93 53.65 51.59 106.7 51.69 47.13 72.01 97.29 122.85 25.27 25.57
Coin Silver GP MSW 0305 9.00 1.0708 1.0263 0.99995 55.00 52.25 53.63 56.17 52.80 49.50 104.5 52.63 46.88 72.37 98.48 125.06 26.11 26.58
Don't Get Mad Derby Trial S 8.00 1.0400 1.0435 0.99999 55.58 54.50 55.04 56.78 53.44 53.42 109.0 50.99 46.73 71.24 96.09 121.18 24.85 25.10
Don't Get Mad Santa Anita Derby 9.00 1.0011 1.0871 0.99978 54.53 53.29 53.91 53.81 55.93 52.05 106.6 51.15 48.96 73.47 97.99 122.52 24.52 24.53
Don't Get Mad San Felipe S 8.50 1.0122 1.0632 0.99979 56.39 54.76 55.58 56.03 57.09 53.13 109.5 51.50 47.06 70.93 94.91 118.96 23.98 24.05
Flower Alley Arkansas Derby 9.00 1.0169 1.0717 0.99996 54.51 53.54 54.02 54.60 54.33 52.56 107.1 50.90 48.30 72.95 97.74 122.63 24.79 24.90
Flower Alley Lane's End S 9.00 1.0482 1.0411 0.99997 55.32 53.33 54.32 56.12 53.79 51.34 106.7 51.84 47.01 71.91 97.22 122.84 25.31 25.62
Flower Alley GP Mdn 0215 8.00 1.0689 1.0239 0.99998 55.08 53.42 54.25 56.84 51.87 51.76 106.8 51.58 46.50 71.72 97.54 123.81 25.82 26.27
Giacomo Santa Anita Derby 9.00 1.0108 1.0732 0.99992 55.09 53.97 54.53 54.87 55.52 52.84 107.9 51.06 48.05 72.39 96.82 121.32 24.43 24.50
Giacomo San Felipe S 8.50 1.0292 1.0469 0.99979 56.75 54.61 55.68 56.74 56.77 52.47 109.2 51.97 46.40 70.44 94.71 119.16 24.27 24.45
Giacomo Sham S 9.00 1.0540 1.0350 0.99988 55.74 53.15 54.44 56.30 54.62 50.57 106.3 52.43 46.72 71.64 97.01 122.74 25.38 25.72
Going Wild Wood Memorial S 9.00 1.1267 0.9815 0.99914 56.16 49.72 52.94 57.17 54.20 43.28 99.4 56.50 45.70 72.16 99.79 128.31 27.63 28.52
Going Wild Santa Catalina S 8.50 1.0347 1.0486 0.99987 55.86 53.80 54.83 56.09 55.41 51.74 107.6 51.92 46.94 71.41 96.18 121.15 24.76 24.98
Going Wild Sham S 9.00 1.0538 1.0334 0.99976 56.09 53.17 54.63 56.41 55.46 50.25 106.3 52.77 46.55 71.36 96.64 122.26 25.27 25.62
Greater Good Arkansas Derby 9.00 1.0118 1.0803 1.00000 53.82 53.33 53.57 54.03 53.42 52.83 106.7 50.44 48.92 73.74 98.65 123.64 24.91 24.99
Greater Good Rebel S 8.50 1.0224 1.0707 0.99998 53.80 53.36 53.58 54.56 52.38 52.93 106.7 50.42 48.56 73.51 98.64 123.92 25.14 25.28
Greater Good Southwest S 8.00 0.9998 1.0910 0.99985 53.96 52.79 53.37 53.55 54.72 51.61 105.6 51.10 49.31 73.96 98.60 123.25 24.65 24.64
Greeley's Galaxy Illinois Derby 9.00 1.0520 1.0359 1.00000 55.39 53.68 54.53 56.57 53.20 51.96 107.4 51.58 46.69 71.53 96.81 122.42 25.28 25.61
Greeley's Galaxy SA Alw 0310 8.50 1.0099 1.0748 1.00000 54.63 54.18 54.40 54.77 54.33 53.73 108.4 50.39 48.18 72.56 97.03 121.55 24.46 24.53
High Fly Florida Derby 9.00 1.0657 1.0202 0.99985 56.52 53.45 54.98 57.31 55.00 50.38 106.9 52.87 45.90 70.71 96.08 121.87 25.37 25.79
High Fly Fountain of Youth S 9.00 1.0415 1.0447 0.99992 55.63 53.59 54.61 56.09 54.75 51.55 107.2 51.90 46.96 71.63 96.66 121.94 25.02 25.29
High Fly Holy Bull S 9.00 1.0531 1.0372 0.99997 55.32 53.18 54.25 56.22 53.62 51.04 106.4 51.99 46.91 71.89 97.33 123.11 25.44 25.78
High Fly Aventura S 8.00 1.0611 1.0226 0.99999 53.88 53.24 53.56 54.38 52.95 52.59 106.5 50.59 45.87 70.52 95.70 121.27 25.18 25.57
High Limit Blue Grass S 9.00 1.0646 1.0267 0.99948 56.18 52.39 54.29 56.33 55.88 48.61 104.8 53.61 46.53 71.64 97.31 123.41 25.67 26.09
High Limit Louisiana Derby 8.50 1.0302 1.0539 1.00000 55.15 54.36 54.76 55.93 53.65 53.57 108.7 50.74 47.23 71.71 96.45 121.38 24.74 24.93
Noble Causeway Florida Derby 9.00 1.0465 1.0394 0.99979 56.09 53.42 54.76 56.39 55.52 50.76 106.8 52.52 46.72 71.41 96.50 121.88 25.09 25.38
Noble Causeway GP Alw 0305 9.00 1.0471 1.0448 0.99999 54.89 53.08 53.99 55.74 53.25 51.28 106.2 51.68 47.34 72.38 97.82 123.57 25.44 25.75
Noble Causeway GP Mdn 0205 9.00 1.0408 1.0525 0.99994 54.67 52.75 53.71 55.30 53.55 50.83 105.5 51.82 47.77 72.85 98.28 123.97 25.43 25.69
Sort It Out Coolmore Lexington S 8.50 1.0723 1.0286 0.99993 54.62 51.75 53.18 55.87 52.34 48.88 103.5 52.77 47.23 72.95 99.31 126.16 26.36 26.85
Sort It Out WinStar Derby 9.00 1.0394 1.0464 0.99987 55.74 53.54 54.64 56.01 55.20 51.35 107.1 52.04 47.02 71.66 96.64 121.86 24.98 25.23
Sort It Out Louisiana Derby 8.50 1.0229 1.0688 0.99993 54.42 52.98 53.70 54.56 54.16 51.54 106.0 51.34 48.38 73.25 98.31 123.51 25.06 25.21
Sort It Out Whirlaway S 8.50 1.0133 1.0700 0.99983 55.34 53.76 54.55 55.10 55.79 52.19 107.5 51.48 47.87 72.19 96.62 121.14 24.43 24.52
Sort It Out Aqu OC 0126 8.50 1.0289 1.0698 1.00000 53.38 52.46 52.92 54.03 52.14 51.55 104.9 50.89 48.90 74.21 99.77 125.52 25.56 25.75
Sort It Out Aqu Alw 0109 8.50 1.0318 1.0628 0.99998 53.84 53.17 53.50 54.78 52.06 52.50 106.3 50.64 48.31 73.41 98.77 124.35 25.37 25.57
Spanish Chestnut Blue Grass S 9.00 1.0896 1.0082 0.99927 56.25 51.39 53.82 56.65 55.46 46.53 102.8 54.72 46.15 71.78 98.21 125.24 26.43 27.03
Spanish Chestnut Lane's End S 9.00 1.0819 1.0145 0.99973 55.77 51.96 53.87 56.65 54.09 48.15 103.9 53.68 46.33 71.84 98.07 124.84 26.23 26.78
Spanish Chestnut Santa Catalina S 8.50 1.0508 1.0359 0.99984 55.93 53.28 54.61 56.41 55.00 50.63 106.6 52.47 46.62 71.39 96.59 122.11 25.20 25.52
Spanish Chestnut San Rafael S 8.00 1.0681 1.0180 0.99976 56.57 53.10 54.83 57.39 55.00 49.62 106.2 53.27 45.82 70.66 96.07 121.93 25.42 25.86
Sun King Blue Grass S 9.00 1.0419 1.0510 0.99948 55.40 52.29 53.84 55.10 55.98 49.18 104.6 52.96 47.67 72.74 98.16 123.85 25.42 25.69
Sun King Tampa Bay Derby 8.50 1.0070 1.0809 0.99998 53.95 54.12 54.03 54.32 53.22 54.28 108.2 49.86 48.66 73.20 97.80 122.44 24.60 24.64
Sun King GP Alw 0226 8.00 1.0487 1.0350 1.00000 55.86 54.22 55.04 56.96 53.83 52.58 108.4 51.53 46.38 70.96 95.95 121.25 24.99 25.30
Wilko Santa Anita Derby 9.00 1.0267 1.0573 0.99997 55.37 54.04 54.71 55.67 54.79 52.71 108.1 51.22 47.36 71.82 96.49 121.34 24.68 24.84
Wilko San Felipe S 8.50 1.0245 1.0523 0.99974 56.61 54.45 55.53 56.41 56.99 52.30 108.9 51.98 46.68 70.72 94.96 119.35 24.24 24.39


Definition of Pace Terms: 

Slope is a measure of fatigue.  It parallels the increase in time required to negotiate an additional distance.  The higher the number, the steeper the slope, indicating that the fatigue rate is greater.  Slopes will generally fall between 0.9 (slow early-fast late) and 1.2 (fast early-slow late).

Int., or Intercept is a measure of early speed and is inversely related to the slope.  In this case, the lower the intercept, the greater the relative early speed.  Intercepts also will usually fall between 0.9 (fast early) and 1.2 (slow early).

CC, or Correlation Coefficient is a measure of how efficiently a horse's speed is used throughout the whole race.  Perfect efficiency is equal to a CC of 1.00000.  Any value below 1.00000 represents less than ideal efficiency, although it is almost always greater than 0.99900.  The very best horses continually display CC's above 0.99990 while lower quality horses may not display CCs that high.

The remaining terms are part of the "Sartin Methodology" for describing pace characteristics as discussed by Tom Brohamer ("Modern Pace Handicapping", by Tom Brohamer, William Morrow and Company, Inc,. New York, 1991):

EP (Early Pace) is velocity in fps (feet-per-second) to the second call.

SP (Sustained Pace) is the average of early pace and the final fraction, thus relating a horse's speed to the second call and his ability to finish.

AP (Average Pace) is the average  of EP and SP.

1Fr (First Fraction), 2Fr (Second Fraction) and 3Fr (Third Fraction) are the average velocities in fps between each of the calls.

TE (Total Energy) is the sum of EP and 3Fr.  It is the total available energy based on current conditions of distance, surface and track as well as inherent ability.

%E (Percent Early) is a relative measure of energy used through the second call (EP/TE).  Speed types display %E figures significantly higher than off-the-pace types, although the absolute numbers are greatly affected by the distance of a race.

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