Dosage: Pedigree & Performance
Main Menu | Search    
  

Prep Race Pace Parameters for 2005 Kentucky Derby Entries

The following Table displays a variety of pace parameters for possible Derby contenders in 2005 prep races at a mile or more on dirt.  In addition to the horse, race and distance, we have included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times.  These are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 10f, the predicted turn time in a 10f race and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in a 10f race.  The various pace parameters are described here. 

The historical guideline figures for Derby winners since 1973 are :

3Fr %E 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
>=51.56 <=52.08 <=122.34 <=24.94 <=25.33

Cells colored green meet or exceed the guideline figures.  Cells colored red fail to meet the guideline figures.  Horses with multiple entries are indicated by adjacent rows in the same color, either yellow or gray.  Races for each horse are listed in chronological order with the latest race first.
 
Horse Race Dist Slope Int CC EP SP AP 1Fr 2Fr 3Fr TE %E 4f 6f 8f 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
Afleet Alex Arkansas Derby 9.00 0.9963 1.0858 1.00000 54.55 54.62 54.58 54.50 54.63 54.70 109.2 49.95 48.49 72.63 96.73 120.82 24.11 24.08
Afleet Alex Rebel S 8.50 1.0690 1.0349 0.99980 54.35 51.10 52.72 55.19 52.77 47.84 102.2 53.18 47.70 73.58 100.07 127.03 26.49 26.96
Andromeda's Hero Arkansas Derby 9.00 1.0160 1.0737 0.99999 54.24 53.57 53.90 54.50 53.72 52.90 107.1 50.64 48.46 73.17 98.00 122.94 24.84 24.94
Andromeda's Hero Sam F. Davis S 8.50 1.0510 1.0495 0.99990 54.16 51.79 52.97 54.86 52.85 49.42 103.6 52.27 48.11 73.67 99.68 126.02 26.01 26.34
Bandini Blue Grass S 9.00 1.0407 1.0456 0.99968 55.97 53.24 54.60 55.90 56.09 50.51 106.5 52.55 47.01 71.69 96.71 121.99 25.02 25.28
Bandini Fountain of Youth S 9.00 1.0432 1.0438 0.99994 55.56 53.53 54.55 56.09 54.54 51.49 107.1 51.88 46.97 71.70 96.79 122.16 25.09 25.37
Bandini GP Alw 0205 9.00 1.0703 1.0242 1.00000 55.00 52.89 53.94 56.65 51.96 50.77 105.8 51.98 46.62 71.95 97.89 124.30 25.94 26.41
Bellamy Road Wood Memorial S 9.00 1.0410 1.0353 0.99998 56.73 54.98 55.86 57.39 55.46 53.23 110.0 51.58 45.92 70.04 94.49 119.20 24.45 24.71
Bellamy Road GP Alw 0312 8.00 1.0705 1.0141 0.99999 56.41 53.99 55.20 57.89 53.65 51.56 108.0 52.23 45.56 70.33 95.70 121.52 25.37 25.82
Buzzards Bay Santa Anita Derby 9.00 1.0321 1.0515 0.99995 55.62 54.00 54.81 55.93 55.00 52.38 108.0 51.50 47.08 71.55 96.29 121.22 24.74 24.94
Buzzards Bay El Camino Real Derby 8.50 1.0297 1.0519 0.99972 56.20 53.79 54.99 56.14 56.30 51.39 107.6 52.23 46.97 71.30 95.89 120.66 24.58 24.77
Buzzards Bay Risen Star S 8.50 1.0730 1.0279 0.99980 54.85 51.47 53.16 55.79 53.10 48.09 102.9 53.31 47.20 72.92 99.30 126.16 26.37 26.86
Buzzards Bay Golden Gate Derby 8.50 1.0539 1.0351 0.99997 55.46 53.35 54.41 56.41 53.65 51.24 106.7 51.98 46.73 71.64 97.01 122.73 25.37 25.72
Closing Argument Blue Grass S 9.00 1.0556 1.0376 0.99945 55.75 52.18 53.97 55.69 55.88 48.61 104.4 53.40 47.11 72.28 97.92 123.93 25.65 26.01
Closing Argument Holy Bull S 9.00 1.0512 1.0376 0.99998 55.39 53.41 54.40 56.33 53.62 51.42 106.8 51.87 46.83 71.72 97.04 122.70 25.33 25.65
Coin Silver Coolmore Lexington S 8.50 1.0722 1.0263 0.99997 54.79 52.17 53.48 56.20 52.24 49.55 104.3 52.53 46.97 72.55 98.77 125.46 26.21 26.70
Coin Silver GP Alw 0402 9.00 1.0456 1.0438 0.99998 55.15 53.37 54.26 55.93 53.65 51.59 106.7 51.69 47.13 72.01 97.29 122.85 25.27 25.57
Coin Silver GP MSW 0305 9.00 1.0708 1.0263 0.99995 55.00 52.25 53.63 56.17 52.80 49.50 104.5 52.63 46.88 72.37 98.48 125.06 26.11 26.58
Don't Get Mad Derby Trial S 8.00 1.0400 1.0435 0.99999 55.58 54.50 55.04 56.78 53.44 53.42 109.0 50.99 46.73 71.24 96.09 121.18 24.85 25.10
Don't Get Mad Santa Anita Derby 9.00 1.0011 1.0871 0.99978 54.53 53.29 53.91 53.81 55.93 52.05 106.6 51.15 48.96 73.47 97.99 122.52 24.52 24.53
Don't Get Mad San Felipe S 8.50 1.0122 1.0632 0.99979 56.39 54.76 55.58 56.03 57.09 53.13 109.5 51.50 47.06 70.93 94.91 118.96 23.98 24.05
Flower Alley Arkansas Derby 9.00 1.0169 1.0717 0.99996 54.51 53.54 54.02 54.60 54.33 52.56 107.1 50.90 48.30 72.95 97.74 122.63 24.79 24.90
Flower Alley Lane's End S 9.00 1.0482 1.0411 0.99997 55.32 53.33 54.32 56.12 53.79 51.34 106.7 51.84 47.01 71.91 97.22 122.84 25.31 25.62
Flower Alley GP Mdn 0215 8.00 1.0689 1.0239 0.99998 55.08 53.42 54.25 56.84 51.87 51.76 106.8 51.58 46.50 71.72 97.54 123.81 25.82 26.27
Giacomo Santa Anita Derby 9.00 1.0108 1.0732 0.99992 55.09 53.97 54.53 54.87 55.52 52.84 107.9 51.06 48.05 72.39 96.82 121.32 24.43 24.50
Giacomo San Felipe S 8.50 1.0292 1.0469 0.99979 56.75 54.61 55.68 56.74 56.77 52.47 109.2 51.97 46.40 70.44 94.71 119.16 24.27 24.45
Giacomo Sham S 9.00 1.0540 1.0350 0.99988 55.74 53.15 54.44 56.30 54.62 50.57 106.3 52.43 46.72 71.64 97.01 122.74 25.38 25.72
Going Wild Wood Memorial S 9.00 1.1267 0.9815 0.99914 56.16 49.72 52.94 57.17 54.20 43.28 99.4 56.50 45.70 72.16 99.79 128.31 27.63 28.52
Going Wild Santa Catalina S 8.50 1.0347 1.0486 0.99987 55.86 53.80 54.83 56.09 55.41 51.74 107.6 51.92 46.94 71.41 96.18 121.15 24.76 24.98
Going Wild Sham S 9.00 1.0538 1.0334 0.99976 56.09 53.17 54.63 56.41 55.46 50.25 106.3 52.77 46.55 71.36 96.64 122.26 25.27 25.62
Greater Good Arkansas Derby