Dosage: Pedigree & Performance
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Prep Race Pace Parameters for 2005 Preakness Stakes Entries

Below is presented a variety of pace parameters for Preakness entries in 2005 prep races at a mile or more on dirt.  In addition to the horse, race, track, date and distance, we have included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times.  These are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 9 1/2f (unadjusted), the predicted turn time in a 9 1/2f race (9.5fTT) and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in a 10f race (9.5fLQ).  The various pace parameters are described at the end of the following tables.
  
HORSE RACE DIST SLOPE INT CC EP SP AP 1Fr 2Fr 3Fr TE %E 4f 6f 8f 9.5f 9.5fTT 9.5fLQ
Afleet Alex Arkansas Derby 9.00 0.9963 1.0858 1.00000 54.55 54.62 54.58 54.50 54.63 54.70 109.2 49.95 48.49 72.63 96.73 114.80 24.11 24.09
Afleet Alex Derby 10.00 1.0521 1.0346 0.99972 56.34 53.36 54.85 56.53 55.99 50.38 106.7 52.80 46.56 71.33 96.54 115.68 25.12 25.47
Afleet Alex Rebel S 8.50 1.0690 1.0349 0.99980 54.35 51.10 52.72 55.19 52.77 47.84 102.2 53.18 47.70 73.58 100.07 120.25 26.36 26.85
Closing Argument Holy Bull S 9.00 1.0512 1.0376 0.99998 55.39 53.41 54.40 56.33 53.62 51.42 106.8 51.87 46.83 71.72 97.04 116.26 25.23 25.58
Closing Argument Derby 10.00 1.0648 1.0222 0.99986 56.45 53.39 54.92 57.19 55.06 50.33 106.8 52.85 46.05 70.92 96.34 115.69 25.30 25.74
Closing Argument Blue Grass S 9.00 1.0556 1.0376 0.99945 55.75 52.18 53.97 55.69 55.88 48.61 104.4 53.40 47.11 72.28 97.92 117.40 25.54 25.92
Galloping Grocer Whirlaway S 8.50 1.0589 1.0301 0.99997 55.62 53.32 54.47 56.65 53.65 51.02 106.6 52.17 46.52 71.47 96.92 116.26 25.34 25.74
Galloping Grocer Gotham 8.00 1.1017 0.9851 0.99993 57.23 53.42 55.32 59.28 53.60 49.62 106.8 53.58 44.50 69.56 95.51 115.41 25.75 26.46
Galloping Grocer NY Stallion S 8.00 1.0807 1.0039 0.99967 57.27 53.17 55.22 58.24 55.40 49.08 106.3 53.87 45.14 69.97 95.48 114.97 25.36 25.92
Galloping Grocer Wood Memorial 9.00 1.0553 1.0402 0.99962 55.37 52.05 53.71 55.54 55.04 48.72 104.1 53.19 47.38 72.68 98.46 118.04 25.67 26.06
Giacomo Santa Anita Derby 9.00 1.0108 1.0732 0.99992 55.09 53.97 54.53 54.87 55.52 52.84 107.9 51.06 48.05 72.39 96.82 115.19 24.41 24.48
Giacomo San Felipe S 8.50 1.0292 1.0469 0.99979 56.75 54.61 55.68 56.74 56.77 52.47 109.2 51.97 46.40 70.44 94.71 113.03 24.22 24.41
Giacomo Derby 10.00 1.0153 1.0718 0.99990 55.04 53.65 54.35 54.87 55.37 52.26 107.3 51.30 48.20 72.75 97.42 115.99 24.65 24.75
Giacomo Sham S 9.00 1.0540 1.0350 0.99988 55.74 53.15 54.44 56.30 54.62 50.57 106.3 52.43 46.72 71.64 97.01 116.28 25.27 25.64
Going Wild Santa Catalina S 8.50 1.0347 1.0486 0.99987 55.86 53.80 54.83 56.09 55.41 51.74 107.6 51.92 46.94 71.41 96.18 114.89 24.70 24.93
Going Wild Sham S 9.00 1.0538 1.0334 0.99976 56.09 53.17 54.63 56.41 55.46 50.25 106.3 52.77 46.55 71.36 96.64 115.82 25.17 25.54
Going Wild Derby 10.00 1.1349 0.9696 0.99938 56.81 50.65 53.73 58.08 54.44 44.50 101.3 56.08 44.97 71.24 98.75 120.01 27.23 28.24
Going Wild Wood Memorial S 9.00 1.1267 0.9815 0.99914 56.16 49.72 52.94 57.17 54.20 43.28 99.4 56.50 45.70 72.16 99.79 121.10 27.37 28.32
Greeley's Galaxy SA Alw 0310 8.50 1.0099 1.0748 1.00000 54.63 54.18 54.40 54.77 54.33 53.73 108.4 50.39 48.18 72.56 97.03 115.42 24.45 24.51
Greeley's Galaxy Illinois Derby 9.00 1.0520 1.0359 1.00000 55.39 53.68 54.53 56.57 53.20 51.96 107.4 51.58 46.69 71.53 96.81 115.99 25.18 25.54
Greeley's Galaxy Derby 10.00 1.0497 1.0399 0.99908 56.48 52.68 54.58 55.75 57.85 48.87 105.4 53.59 46.97 71.89 97.23 116.46 25.25 25.59
Hal's Image Aqu 75OCl 8.00 1.0645 1.0266 1.00000 55.31 53.41 54.36 56.79 52.57 51.51 106.8 51.79 46.50 71.60 97.25 116.77 25.53 25.98
Hal's Image Aventura S 8.00 1.0938 1.0094 0.99994 54.99 51.47 53.23 56.77 51.71 47.95 102.9 53.44 46.56 72.54 99.37 119.92 26.64 27.32
Hal's Image Unbridled S 8.50 1.0707 1.0388 0.99969 53.80 50.34 52.07 54.44 52.57 46.88 100.7 53.43 48.24 74.46 101.32 121.79 26.72 27.23
Hal's Image GP Alw 8.00 1.1003 0.9984 0.99971 55.93 51.38 53.66 57.39 53.22 46.83 102.8 54.41 45.80 71.55 98.19 118.63 26.44 27.17
High Fly Aventura S 8.00 1.0611 1.0226 0.99999 53.88 53.24 53.56 54.38 52.95 52.59 106.5 50.59 45.87 70.52 95.70 114.84 25.06 25.48
High Fly Fountain of Youth S 9.00 1.0415 1.0447 0.99992 55.63 53.59 54.61 56.09 54.75 51.55 107.2 51.90 46.96 71.63 96.66 115.60 24.95 25.23
High Fly Holy Bull S 9.00 1.0531 1.0372 0.99997 55.32 53.18 54.25 56.22 53.62 51.04 106.4 51.99 46.91 71.89 97.33 116.63 25.34 25.70
High Fly Florida Derby 9.00 1.0657 1.0202 0.99985 56.52 53.45 54.98 57.31 55.00 50.38 106.9 52.87 45.90 70.71 96.08 115.39 25.24 25.70
High Fly Derby 10.00 1.0831 1.0033 0.99982 57.06 53.34 55.20 58.08 55.16 49.62 106.7 53.48 45.22 70.16 95.81 115.42 25.49 26.07
High Limit Louisiana Derby 8.50 1.0302 1.0539 1.00000 55.15 54.36 54.76 55.93 53.65 53.57 108.7 50.74 47.23 71.71 96.45 115.13 24.68 24.88
High Limit Blue Grass S 9.00 1.0646 1.0267 0.99948 56.18 52.39 54.29 56.33 55.88 48.61 104.8 53.61 46.53 71.64 97.31 116.85 25.55 26.00
High Limit Derby 10.00 1.1404 0.9731 0.99890 56.27 49.28 52.77 57.08 54.75 42.29 98.6 57.07 45.67 72.52 100.69 122.48 27.87 28.94
Malibu Moonshine Miracle Wood S 8.00 1.0235 1.0784 0.99985 52.49 52.88 52.69 53.64 50.46 53.27 105.8 49.62 49.50 74.96 100.62 119.97 25.62 25.78
Malibu Moonshine Battaglia S 8.50 1.0267 1.0665 1.00000 54.13 53.09 53.61 54.70 53.07 52.04 106.2 50.97 48.37 73.35 98.55 117.56 25.15 25.33
Malibu Moonshine Tesio S 9.00 1.0151 1.0840 0.99994 53.24 52.13 52.69 53.15 53.42 51.02 104.3 51.05 49.57 74.80 100.17 119.26 25.34 25.44
Malibu Moonshine Private Terms S 8.00 1.0236 1.0744 0.99994 53.59 52.12 52.85 53.85 53.10 50.65 104.2 51.43 49.06 74.29 99.73 118.91 25.39 25.56
Noble Causeway GP Alw 0305 9.00 1.0471 1.0448 0.99999 54.89 53.08 53.99 55.74 53.25 51.28 106.2 51.68 47.34 72.38 97.82 117.11 25.35 25.68
Noble Causeway GP Mdn 0205 9.00 1.0408 1.0525 0.99994 54.67 52.75 53.71 55.30 53.55 50.83 105.5 51.82 47.77 72.85 98.28 117.53 25.35 25.63
Noble Causeway Florida Derby 9.00 1.0465 1.0394 0.99979 56.09 53.42 54.76 56.39 55.52 50.76 106.8 52.52 46.72 71.41 96.50 115.51 25.00 25.32
Noble Causeway Derby 10.00 1.0572 1.0352 0.99905 56.38 52.29 54.33 55.75 57.54 48.21 104.6 53.90 46.96 72.09 97.71 117.18 25.51 25.91
Scrappy T Withers S 8.00 1.0211 1.0581 1.00000 55.62 54.86 55.24 56.06 54.75 54.10 109.7 50.70 47.09 71.24 95.57 113.90 24.29 24.43
Scrappy T Count Fleet S 8.32 1.0351 1.0587 0.99997 53.95 53.36 53.65 55.00 51.96 52.76 106.7 50.56 48.07 73.14 98.52 117.69 25.30 25.55
Scrappy T Whirlaway S 8.50 1.0557 1.0335 1.00000 55.41 53.48 54.45 56.55 53.25 51.56 107.0 51.78 46.67 71.60 97.01 116.31 25.30 25.69
Scrappy T Wood Memorial 9.00 1.0797 1.0114 0.99978 56.38 52.68 54.53 57.28 54.62 48.99 105.4 53.49 45.86 71.05 96.92 116.68 25.73 26.28
Sun King Tampa Bay Derby 8.50 1.0070 1.0809 0.99998 53.95 54.12 54.03 54.32 53.22 54.28 108.2 49.86 48.66 73.20 97.80 116.27 24.58 24.63
Sun King GP Alw 0226 8.00 1.0487 1.0350 1.00000 55.86 54.22 55.04 56.96 53.83 52.58 108.4 51.53 46.38 70.96 95.95 114.90 24.90 25.23
Sun King Blue Grass S 9.00 1.0419 1.0510 0.99948 55.40 52.29 53.84 55.10 55.98 49.18 104.6 52.96 47.67 72.74 98.16 117.40 25.34 25.63
Sun King Derby 10.00 1.0783 1.0168 0.99940 56.38 52.06 54.22 56.58 55.99 47.74 104.1 54.16 46.34 71.75 97.84 117.76 25.94 26.50
Wilko Santa Anita Derby 9.00 1.0267 1.0573 0.99997 55.37 54.04 54.71 55.67 54.79 52.71 108.1 51.22 47.36 71.82 96.49 115.11 24.63 24.81
Wilko San Felipe S 8.50 1.0245 1.0523 0.99974 56.61 54.45 55.53 56.41 56.99 52.30 108.9 51.98 46.68 70.72 94.96 113.24 24.20 24.36
Wilko Derby 10.00 1.0411 1.0502 0.99984 55.33 52.97 54.15 55.53 54.95 50.61 105.9 52.25 47.54 72.51 97.83 117.00 25.24 25.52

These are the top 5 in the major pace categories:

3Fr %E 9.5f 9.5fTT 9.5fLQ PF
Afleet Alex Malibu Moonshine   Giacomo Afleet Alex Afleet Alex high fly (-68)
Sun King Sun King Wilko Wilko Wilko afleet alex (-63)
Scrappy T Afleet Alex Scrappy T Giacomo Giacomo noble causeway (-62)
Greeley's Galaxy   Greeley's Galaxy Afleet Alex   Scrappy T Scrappy T high limit (-57)
High Limit Scrappy T High Fly Greeley's Galaxy   Greeley's Galaxy   scrappy t (-50
          SUN KING (-50)
 
The last table shows the ranking of the contenders in each of the five pace categories.  They are displayed in the order of ascending average rank order.
 
2005 Contender  3Fr   %E   9.5f   9.5fLQ   9.5fTT   Rank 
Afleet Alex 1 3 4 1 1 1
Scrappy T 3 5 3 4 4 2
Giacomo 7 8 1 3 3 3
Sun King 2 2 7 6 6 4
Wilko 8 9 2 2 2 5
Greeley's Galaxy 4 4 10 5 5 6
High Limit 5 7 9 7 7 7
High Fly 9 6 5 9 9 8
Going Wild 10 13 6 8 8 9
Malibu Moonshine 6 1 14 11 11 10
Noble Causeway 13 10 11 10 10 11
Closing Argument 12 12 12 12 12 12
Galloping Grocer 14 14 8 13 13 11
Hal's Image 11 11 13 14 14 12

Definition of Pace Terms:

Slope is a measure of fatigue.  It parallels the increase in time required to negotiate an additional distance.  The higher the number, the steeper the slope, indicating that the fatigue rate is greater.  Slopes will generally fall between 0.9 (slow early-fast late) and 1.2 (fast early-slow late).

Int., or Intercept is a measure of early speed and is inversely related to the slope.  In this case, the lower the intercept, the greater the relative early speed.  Intercepts also will usually fall between 0.9 (fast early) and 1.2 (slow early).

CC, or Correlation Coefficient is a measure of how efficiently a horse's speed is used throughout the whole race.  Perfect efficiency is equal to a CC of 1.00000.  Any value below 1.00000 represents less than ideal efficiency, although it is almost always greater than 0.99900.  The very best horses continually display CC's above 0.99990 while lower quality horses may not display CCs that high.

The remaining terms are part of the "Sartin Methodology" for describing pace characteristics as discussed by Tom Brohamer ("Modern Pace Handicapping", by Tom Brohamer, William Morrow and Company, Inc,. New York, 1991):

EP (Early Pace) is velocity in fps (feet-per-second) to the second call.

SP (Sustained Pace) is the average of early pace and the final fraction, thus relating a horse's speed to the second call and his ability to finish.

AP (Average Pace) is the average  of EP and SP.

1Fr (First Fraction), 2Fr (Second Fraction) and 3Fr (Third Fraction) are the average velocities in fps between each of the calls.

TE (Total Energy) is the sum of EP and 3Fr.  It is the total available energy based on current conditions of distance, surface and track as well as inherent ability.

%E (Percent Early) is a relative measure of energy used through the second call (EP/TE).  Speed types display %E figures significantly higher than off-the-pace types, although the absolute numbers are greatly affected by the distance of a race.