Dosage: Pedigree & Performance
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Prep Race Pace Parameters for 2006 Kentucky Derby Entries

The following Table displays a variety of pace parameters for Derby entries in 2006 prep races at a mile or more on dirt.  In addition to the horse, race, track, date and distance, we have included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times.  These are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 10f, the predicted turn time in a 10f race and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in a 10f race.  Non-competitive performances are not included.  The various pace parameters are described here. 

The historical guideline figures for all Derby winners since 1984 plus Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid are :

3Fr %E 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
>=51.56 <=52.08 <=122.34 <=24.94 <=25.33

Cells colored green meet or exceed the guideline figures.  Cells colored red fail to meet the guideline figures.  Races for each horse are listed in chronological order with the latest race last.
 
Horse Race Trk Date Dist Slope Int CC EP SP AP 1Fr 2Fr 3Fr TE %E 4f 6f 8f 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
A. P. Warrior El Camino Real Derby BM 0129 8.50 1.0246 1.0606 0.99976 55.52 53.44 54.48 55.34 55.88 51.36 106.9 51.94 47.59 72.09 96.81 121.68 24.71 24.87
A. P. Warrior San Felipe S SA 0318 8.50 1.0350 1.0461 0.99977 56.30 53.89 55.10 56.36 56.19 51.48 107.8 52.23 46.69 71.04 95.67 120.53 24.64 24.85
A. P. Warrior Santa Anita Derby SA 0408 9.00 1.0082 1.0731 0.99981 55.48 54.13 54.81 54.96 56.51 52.79 108.3 51.23 47.88 72.06 96.31 120.61 24.25 24.30
Barbaro Holy Bull S GP 0204 9.00 1.0581 1.0267 0.99985 56.41 53.59 55.00 57.03 55.20 50.77 107.2 52.62 46.10 70.80 95.99 121.56 25.19 25.56
Barbaro Florida Derby GP 0401 9.00 1.0243 1.0587 0.99992 55.55 54.03 54.79 55.61 55.41 52.51 108.1 51.39 47.36 71.74 96.32 121.05 24.58 24.73
Bluegrass Cat Sam F. Davis S Tam 0218 8.50 1.0173 1.0710 0.99998 54.48 53.59 54.03 54.71 54.03 52.71 107.2 50.82 48.25 72.88 97.65 122.54 24.78 24.88
Bluegrass Cat Tampa Bay Derby Tam 0318 8.50 0.9923 1.0966 0.99998 53.75 53.58 53.66 53.35 54.54 53.41 107.2 50.14 49.43 73.92 98.34 122.71 24.42 24.37
Bluegrass Cat Toyoya Blue Grass S Kee 0415 9.00 1.0771 1.0232 0.99978 55.23 51.62 53.42 56.11 53.54 48.01 103.2 53.52 46.95 72.66 99.06 125.97 26.39 26.91
Bob and John Alw SA 0120 8.50 1.0218 1.0698 0.99997 54.25 53.07 53.66 54.44 53.86 51.89 106.1 51.13 48.42 73.27 98.31 123.49 25.04 25.18
Bob and John Sham S SA 0204 9.00 0.9910 1.0899 0.99983 55.00 54.26 54.63 54.10 56.89 53.51 108.5 50.69 48.59 72.62 96.58 120.48 23.96 23.90
Bob and John San Felipe S SA 0318 8.50 1.0329 1.0500 0.99972 56.09 53.62 54.86 56.03 56.19 51.16 107.2 52.32 46.97 71.40 96.11 121.02 24.71 24.91
Bob and John Wood Memorial S Aqu 0408 9.00 1.0774 1.0170 0.99987 55.70 52.42 54.06 56.82 53.62 49.13 104.8 53.15 46.31 71.68 97.73 124.28 26.04 26.56
Brother Derek San Rafael S SA 0114 8.00 1.0346 1.0459 0.99982 56.25 53.91 55.08 56.41 55.93 51.56 107.8 52.18 46.65 70.96 95.56 120.37 24.60 24.81
Brother Derek Santa Catalina S SA 0304 8.50 1.0462 1.0343 0.99995 56.41 54.32 55.36 57.09 55.10 52.22 108.6 51.94 46.15 70.53 95.30 120.36 24.77 25.06
Brother Derek Santa Anita Derby SA 0408 9.00 1.0155 1.0637 0.99998 55.62 54.71 55.16 55.70 55.46 53.80 109.4 50.84 47.32 71.43 95.67 120.00 24.24 24.33
Cause to Believe El Camino Real Derby BM 0129 8.50 1.0136 1.0646 0.99994 55.81 54.67 55.24 55.77 55.88 53.53 109.3 51.06 47.30 71.34 95.49 119.72 24.15 24.24
Cause to Believe California Derby GG 0311 8.50 1.0257 1.0498 0.99993 56.59 54.94 55.77 56.86 56.09 53.28 109.9 51.50 46.49 70.46 94.65 118.99 24.18 24.34
Cause to Believe Illinois Derby Haw 0408 9.00 1.0304 1.0653 1.00000 53.84 52.83 53.33 54.48 52.60 51.83 105.7 50.93 48.49 73.64 99.04 124.65 25.41 25.60
Deputy Glitters Alw GP 0115 8.00 1.0947 1.0003 0.99998 55.88 52.64 54.26 57.79 52.33 49.41 105.3 53.06 45.65 71.15 97.49 124.46 26.34 26.98
Deputy Glitters Sam F. Davis S Tam 0218 8.50 1.0288 1.0616 1.00000 54.48 53.39 53.93 55.02 53.42 52.31 106.8 51.01 47.97 72.80 97.87 123.13 25.07 25.26
Deputy Glitters Tampa Bay Derby Tam 0318 8.50 0.9900 1.0973 0.99999 53.81 53.86 53.84 53.46 54.54 53.90 107.7 49.97 49.36 73.74 98.03 122.27 24.30 24.23
Deputy Glitters Wood Memorial S Aqu 0408 9.00 1.0865 1.0188 0.99967 54.93 50.85 52.89 55.84 53.22 46.78 101.7 54.01 47.09 73.16 100.00 127.43 26.84 27.44
Flashy Bull Holy Bull S GP 0204 9.00 1.0639 1.0239 0.99981 56.27 53.16 54.72 56.93 55.00 50.06 106.3 52.93 46.18 71.08 96.53 122.40 25.45 25.87
Flashy Bull Fountain of Youth S GP 0304 9.00 1.0014 1.0821 0.99997 54.71 54.22 54.47 54.46 55.20 53.74 108.4 50.47 48.41 72.66 96.92 121.19 24.26 24.27
Flashy Bull Florida Derby GP 0401 9.00 1.0380 1.0533 0.99980 55.13 52.79 53.96 55.19 55.00 50.46 105.6 52.20 47.67 72.61 97.88 123.39 25.27 25.51
Jazil Alw GP 0202 9.00 0.9969 1.0882 0.99996 54.42 53.99 54.20 54.03 55.20 53.56 108.0 50.39 48.80 73.11 97.39 121.65 24.28 24.26
Jazil Fountain of Youth S GP 0304 9.00 0.9940 1.0939 0.99995 54.05 53.69 53.87 53.58 55.00 53.33 107.4 50.33 49.24 73.68 98.07 122.43 24.39 24.35
Jazil Wood Memorial S Aqu 0408 9.00 0.9850 1.1077 0.99999 53.13 53.21 53.17 52.76 53.83 53.28 106.4 49.94 50.21 74.86 99.39 123.82 24.53 24.43
Keyed Entry Gotham S Aqu 0318 8.50 1.0164 1.0685 1.00000 54.71 54.26 54.48 55.15 53.86 53.81 108.5 50.42 47.91 72.35 96.93 121.60 24.57 24.68
Keyed Entry Wood Memorial S Aqu 0408 9.00 1.0898 1.0068 0.99987 55.77 52.14 53.96 57.14 53.22 48.51 104.3 53.48 46.01 71.58 97.93 124.90 26.36 26.96
Lawyer Ron Risen Star S LaD 0114 8.50 1.0350 1.0504 0.99999 55.31 53.93 54.62 55.93 54.09 52.55 107.9 51.26 47.16 71.75 96.63 121.74 24.88 25.11
Lawyer Ron Southwest S OP 0225 8.00 1.0586 1.0437 1.00000 53.80 51.90 52.85 55.00 51.56 50.00 103.8 51.83 47.98 73.69 99.93 126.55 26.23 26.63
Lawyer Ron Rebel S OP 0318 8.50 1.0216 1.0675 1.00000 54.36 53.66 54.01 54.88 53.37 52.96 107.3 50.66 48.15 72.86 97.75 122.78 24.89 25.03
Lawyer Ron Arkansas Derby OP 0415 9.00 1.0778 1.0155 0.99982 55.93 52.47 54.20 56.90 54.09 49.01 104.9 53.32 46.18 71.49 97.47 123.97 25.99 26.50
Point Determined MSW SA 0113 8.50 1.0647 1.0267 0.99997 55.48 53.04 54.26 56.68 53.22 50.61 106.1 52.29 46.53 71.64 97.32 123.42 25.68 26.10
Point Determined Alw SA 0203 8.00 1.0576 1.0280 0.99993 56.11 53.59 54.85 57.07 54.30 51.07 107.2 52.34 46.21 70.95 96.17 121.77 25.23 25.60
Point Determined OCl 80K GG 0217 8.00 1.0263 1.0544 0.99995 55.77 54.29 55.03 56.09 55.16 52.80 108.6 51.36 47.02 71.29 95.77 120.42 24.48 24.65
Point Determined San Felipe S SA 0318 8.50 1.0423 1.0406 0.99992 56.09 53.94 55.01 56.57 55.14 51.79 107.9 51.98 46.57 71.07 95.92 121.04 24.85 25.12
Point Determined Santa Anita Derby SA 0408 9.00 0.9997 1.0810 0.99994 55.13 54.50 54.81 54.75 55.88 53.87 109.0 50.57 48.18 72.26 96.34 120.42 24.08 24.08
Private Vow Rebel S OP 0318 8.50 1.0455 1.0512 1.00000 54.12 52.66 53.39 55.09 52.28 51.20 105.3 51.40 47.94 73.24 98.94 124.94 25.70 26.00
Private Vow Arkansas Derby OP 0415 9.00 1.0793 1.0170 0.99974 55.72 52.03 53.87 56.57 54.09 48.33 104.1 53.53 46.43 71.92 98.11 124.82 26.19 26.72
Seaside Retreat Sam F. Davis S Tam 0218 8.50 1.0202 1.0766 0.99973 53.96 51.98 52.97 53.66 54.53 50.00 104.0 51.88 49.07 74.21 99.52 124.96 25.31 25.44
Seaside Retreat Florida Derby GP 0401 9.00 1.0276 1.0638 0.99984 54.74 52.85 53.79 54.71 54.77 50.96 105.7 51.78 48.14 73.03 98.14 123.44 25.12 25.29
Sharp Humor Florida Derby GP 0401 9.00 1.0332 1.0507 0.99994 55.62 53.93 54.78 55.93 55.00 52.25 107.9 51.55 47.08 71.57 96.35 121.33 24.77 24.98
Showing Up Alw GP 0311 8.00 1.0309 1.0420 1.00000 56.73 55.64 56.19 57.39 55.46 54.55 111.3 50.97 45.99 69.85 93.96 118.26 24.11 24.30
Showing Up Coolmore Lexington S Kee 0422 8.50 1.0662 1.0339 0.99982 54.72 51.64 53.18 55.56 53.17 48.55 103.3 52.97 47.41 73.04 99.27 125.93 26.22 26.66
Sinister Minister California Derby GG 0311 8.50 1.0762 1.0054 0.99981 57.39 53.85 55.62 58.41 55.46 50.31 107.7 53.29 45.01 69.63 94.90 120.66 25.27 25.76
Sinister Minister Toyota Blue Grass S Kee 0415 9.00 1.0670 1.0169 0.99989 56.73 53.75 55.24 57.64 55.00 50.77 107.5 52.78 45.63 70.33 95.59 121.29 25.27 25.70
Steppenwolfer OCl  50K LaD 0107 8.50 1.0123 1.0892 0.99998 52.44 52.42 52.43 52.96 51.45 52.41 104.8 50.04 49.97 75.33 100.79 126.33 25.46 25.54
Steppenwolfer Alw OP 0203 8.00 1.0349 1.0671 1.00000 53.13 52.09 52.61 53.93 51.64 51.05 104.2 50.99 49.00 74.55 100.40 126.48 25.85 26.08
Steppenwolfer Southwest S OP 0225 8.00 1.0220 1.0772 0.99999 53.26 52.25 52.75 53.65 52.53 51.23 104.5 50.97 49.26 74.55 100.03 125.66 25.48 25.62
Steppenwolfer Rebel S OP 0318 8.50 1.0048 1.0846 0.99993 54.16 53.28 53.72 53.94 54.56 52.40 106.6 50.80 48.93 73.54 98.19 122.86 24.65 24.68
Steppenwolfer Arkansas Derby OP 0415 9.00 1.0319 1.0606 0.99960 55.05 52.46 53.76 54.74 55.63 49.88 104.9 52.48 48.07 73.04 98.29 123.73 25.24 25.45
Storm Treasure Alw GP 0222 8.00 1.0387 1.0402 0.99982 56.63 54.16 55.39 56.93 56.03 51.69 108.3 52.29 46.30 70.55 95.12 119.92 24.57 24.81
Storm Treasure Tampa Bay Derby Tam 0318 8.50 1.0158 1.0856 0.99979 53.20 51.52 52.36 52.85 53.92 49.84 103.0 51.65 49.79 75.17 100.69 126.30 25.52 25.62
Storm Treasure Toyota Blue Grass S Kee 0415 9.00 1.0441 1.0507 0.99999 54.37 53.05 53.71 55.51 52.18 51.73 106.1 51.24 47.79 72.98 98.55 124.40 25.57 25.86
Sweetnorthernsaint    Miracle Wood S Lrl 0204 8.00 1.0405 1.0562 0.99983 53.51 53.59 53.55 55.00 50.76 53.66 107.2 49.92 48.16 73.43 99.05 124.93 25.62 25.89
Sweetnorthernsaint Gotham S Aqu 0318 8.50 1.0147 1.0701 1.00000 54.78 54.13 54.46 55.04 54.26 53.49 108.3 50.58 47.97 72.39 96.93 121.56 24.54 24.63
Sweetnorthernsaint Illinois Derby Haw 0408 9.00 1.0153 1.0725 0.99998 54.18 54.06 54.12 54.79 53.00 53.94 108.1 50.12 48.28 72.87 97.58 122.39 24.72 24.81

 
Definition of Pace Terms:

Slope is a measure of fatigue.  It parallels the increase in time required to negotiate an additional distance.  The higher the number, the steeper the slope, indicating that the fatigue rate is greater.  Slopes will generally fall between 0.9 (slow early-fast late) and 1.2 (fast early-slow late).

Int., or Intercept is a measure of early speed and is inversely related to the slope.  In this case, the lower the intercept, the greater the relative early speed.  Intercepts also will usually fall between 0.9 (fast early) and 1.2 (slow early).

CC, or Correlation Coefficient is a measure of how efficiently a horse's speed is used throughout the whole race.  Perfect efficiency is equal to a CC of 1.00000.  Any value below 1.00000 represents less than ideal efficiency, although it is almost always greater than 0.99900.  The very best horses continually display CC's above 0.99990 while lower quality horses may not display CCs that high.

The remaining terms are part of the "Sartin Methodology" for describing pace characteristics as discussed by Tom Brohamer ("Modern Pace Handicapping", by Tom Brohamer, William Morrow and Company, Inc,. New York, 1991):

EP (Early Pace) is velocity in fps (feet-per-second) to the second call.

SP (Sustained Pace) is the average of early pace and the final fraction, thus relating a horse's speed to the second call and his ability to finish.

AP (Average Pace) is the average  of EP and SP.

1Fr (First Fraction), 2Fr (Second Fraction) and 3Fr (Third Fraction) are the average velocities in fps between each of the calls.

TE (Total Energy) is the sum of EP and 3Fr.  It is the total available energy based on current conditions of distance, surface and track as well as inherent ability.

%E (Percent Early) is a relative measure of energy used through the second call (EP/TE).  Speed types display %E figures significantly higher than off-the-pace types, although the absolute numbers are greatly affected by the distance of a race.

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