Dosage: Pedigree & Performance
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Prep Race Pace Parameters for 2006 Kentucky Derby Entries

The following Table displays a variety of pace parameters for Derby entries in 2006 prep races at a mile or more on dirt.  In addition to the horse, race, track, date and distance, we have included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times.  These are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 10f, the predicted turn time in a 10f race and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in a 10f race.  Non-competitive performances are not included.  The various pace parameters are described here. 

The historical guideline figures for all Derby winners since 1984 plus Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid are :

3Fr %E 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
>=51.56 <=52.08 <=122.34 <=24.94 <=25.33

Cells colored green meet or exceed the guideline figures.  Cells colored red fail to meet the guideline figures.  Races for each horse are listed in chronological order with the latest race last.
 
Horse Race Trk Date Dist Slope Int CC EP SP AP 1Fr 2Fr 3Fr TE %E 4f 6f 8f 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
A. P. Warrior El Camino Real Derby BM 0129 8.50 1.0246 1.0606 0.99976 55.52 53.44 54.48 55.34 55.88 51.36 106.9 51.94 47.59 72.09 96.81 121.68 24.71 24.87
A. P. Warrior San Felipe S SA 0318 8.50 1.0350 1.0461 0.99977 56.30 53.89 55.10 56.36 56.19 51.48 107.8 52.23 46.69 71.04 95.67 120.53 24.64 24.85
A. P. Warrior Santa Anita Derby SA 0408 9.00 1.0082 1.0731 0.99981 55.48 54.13 54.81 54.96 56.51 52.79 108.3 51.23 47.88 72.06 96.31 120.61 24.25 24.30
Barbaro Holy Bull S GP 0204 9.00 1.0581 1.0267 0.99985 56.41 53.59 55.00 57.03 55.20 50.77 107.2 52.62 46.10 70.80 95.99 121.56 25.19 25.56
Barbaro Florida Derby GP 0401 9.00 1.0243 1.0587 0.99992 55.55 54.03 54.79 55.61 55.41 52.51 108.1 51.39 47.36 71.74 96.32 121.05 24.58 24.73
Bluegrass Cat Sam F. Davis S Tam 0218 8.50 1.0173 1.0710 0.99998 54.48 53.59 54.03 54.71 54.03 52.71 107.2 50.82 48.25 72.88 97.65 122.54 24.78 24.88
Bluegrass Cat Tampa Bay Derby Tam 0318 8.50 0.9923 1.0966 0.99998 53.75 53.58 53.66 53.35 54.54 53.41 107.2 50.14 49.43 73.92 98.34 122.71 24.42 24.37
Bluegrass Cat Toyoya Blue Grass S Kee 0415 9.00 1.0771 1.0232 0.99978 55.23 51.62 53.42 56.11 53.54 48.01 103.2 53.52 46.95 72.66 99.06 125.97 26.39 26.91
Bob and John Alw SA 0120 8.50 1.0218 1.0698 0.99997 54.25 53.07 53.66 54.44 53.86 51.89 106.1 51.13 48.42 73.27 98.31 123.49 25.04 25.18
Bob and John Sham S SA 0204 9.00 0.9910 1.0899 0.99983 55.00 54.26 54.63 54.10 56.89 53.51 108.5 50.69 48.59 72.62 96.58 120.48 23.96 23.90
Bob and John San Felipe S SA 0318 8.50 1.0329 1.0500 0.99972 56.09 53.62 54.86 56.03 56.19 51.16 107.2 52.32 46.97 71.40 96.11 121.02 24.71 24.91
Bob and John Wood Memorial S Aqu 0408 9.00 1.0774 1.0170 0.99987 55.70 52.42 54.06 56.82 53.62 49.13 104.8 53.15 46.31 71.68 97.73 124.28 26.04 26.56
Brother Derek San Rafael S SA 0114 8.00 1.0346 1.0459 0.99982 56.25 53.91 55.08 56.41 55.93 51.56 107.8 52.18 46.65 70.96 95.56 120.37 24.60 24.81
Brother Derek Santa Catalina S SA 0304 8.50 1.0462 1.0343 0.99995 56.41 54.32 55.36 57.09 55.10 52.22 108.6 51.94 46.15 70.53 95.30 120.36 24.77 25.06
Brother Derek Santa Anita Derby SA 0408 9.00 1.0155 1.0637 0.99998 55.62 54.71 55.16 55.70 55.46 53.80 109.4 50.84 47.32 71.43 95.67 120.00 24.24 24.33
Cause to Believe El Camino Real Derby BM 0129 8.50 1.0136 1.0646 0.99994 55.81 54.67 55.24 55.77 55.88 53.53 109.3 51.06 47.30 71.34 95.49 119.72 24.15 24.24
Cause to Believe California Derby GG 0311 8.50 1.0257 1.0498 0.99993 56.59 54.94 55.77 56.86 56.09 53.28 109.9 51.50 46.49 70.46 94.65 118.99 24.18 24.34
Cause to Believe Illinois Derby Haw 0408 9.00 1.0304 1.0653 1.00000 53.84 52.83 53.33 54.48 52.60 51.83 105.7 50.93 48.49 73.64 99.04 124.65 25.41 25.60
Deputy Glitters Alw GP 0115 8.00 1.0947 1.0003 0.99998 55.88 52.64 54.26 57.79 52.33 49.41 105.3 53.06 45.65 71.15 97.49 124.46 26.34 26.98
Deputy Glitters Sam F. Davis S Tam 0218 8.50 1.0288 1.0616 1.00000 54.48 53.39 53.93 55.02 53.42 52.31 106.8 51.01 47.97 72.80 97.87 123.13 25.07 25.26
Deputy Glitters Tampa Bay Derby Tam 0318 8.50 0.9900 1.0973 0.99999 53.81 53.86 53.84 53.46 54.54 53.90 107.7 49.97 49.36 73.74 98.03 122.27 24.30 24.23
Deputy Glitters Wood Memorial S Aqu 0408 9.00 1.0865 1.0188 0.99967 54.93 50.85 52.89 55.84 53.22 46.78 101.7 54.01 47.09 73.16 100.00 127.43 26.84 27.44
Flashy Bull Holy Bull S GP 0204 9.00 1.0639 1.0239 0.99981 56.27 53.16 54.72 56.93 55.00 50.06 106.3 52.93 46.18 71.08 96.53 122.40 25.45 25.87
Flashy Bull Fountain of Youth S GP 0304 9.00 1.0014 1.0821 0.99997 54.71 54.22 54.47 54.46 55.20 53.74 108.4 50.47 48.41 72.66 96.92 121.19 24.26 24.27
Flashy Bull Florida Derby GP 0401 9.00 1.0380 1.0533 0.99980 55.13 52.79 53.96 55.19 55.00 50.46 105.6 52.20 47.67 72.61 97.88 123.39 25.27 25.51
Jazil Alw GP 0202 9.00 0.9969 1.0882 0.99996 54.42 53.99 54.20 54.03 55.20 53.56 108.0 50.39 48.80 73.11 97.39 121.65 24.28 24.26
Jazil Fountain of Youth S GP 0304 9.00 0.9940 1.0939 0.99995 54.05 53.69 53.87 53.58 55.00 53.33 107.4 50.33 49.24 73.68 98.07 <