Dosage: Pedigree & Performance
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Prep Race Pace Parameters for 2007 Preakness Stakes Contenders

Below is presented a variety of pace parameters for Belmont Stakes starters in 2007 prep races at a mile or more on dirt.  In addition to the horse, race, track, date and distance, we have included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times.  These are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 12f (unadjusted), the predicted turn time in a 12f race (12fTT) and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in a 12f race (12fLQ).  The various pace parameters are described at the end of the following tables.  The significance of using pace parameters for analyzing the Belmont has been neither tested nor confirmed.

Data from the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) are excluded because of the unique and unusual pace characteristics of that race. 
  
HORSE RACE TRK DATE DIST SLOPE INT CC EP SP AP 1Fr 2Fr 3Fr TE %E 4f 6f 8f 10f 12f 12fTT 12fLQ
C P WEST WITHERS S (G3) AQU 0428 8.00 1.0604 1.0205 0.99998 56.68 54.39 55.54 57.87 54.44 52.10 108.8 52.10 45.60 70.09 95.10 120.48 146.18 25.39 25.70
C P WEST PREAKNESS S (G1) PIM 0519 9.50 1.0367 1.0453 1.00000 55.73 54.53 55.13 56.69 53.92 53.33 109.1 51.08 46.72 71.14 95.85 120.80 145.94 24.95 25.14
CURLIN REBEL S (G3) OP 0317 8.50 1.0134 1.0759 0.99986 54.52 53.08 53.80 54.31 54.93 51.63 106.2 51.34 48.53 73.20 97.97 122.83 147.76 24.86 24.93
CURLIN ARKANSAS DERBY (G2) OP 0414 9.00 1.0124 1.0752 1.00000 54.34 53.84 54.09 54.60 53.83 53.34 107.7 50.45 48.39 72.94 97.61 122.35 147.15 24.74 24.80
CURLIN KENTUCKY DERBY (G1) CD 0505 10.00 1.0193 1.0717 0.99996 54.44 53.25 53.84 54.55 54.23 52.06 106.5 51.11 48.46 73.27 98.24 123.33 148.51 25.09 25.19
CURLIN PREAKNESS S (G1) PIM 0519 9.50 0.9850 1.0896 0.99981 55.80 55.14 55.47 54.80 57.70 54.47 110.3 50.59 48.15 71.79 95.31 118.74 142.10 23.43 23.36
HARD SPUN LECOMTE S (G3) FG 0113 8.00 1.0675 1.0242 0.99981 55.77 52.51 54.14 56.65 54.09 49.25 105.0 53.12 46.44 71.59 97.33 123.50 150.04 26.18 26.54
HARD SPUN SOUTHWEST S OP 0219 8.00 1.0298 1.0620 0.99965 54.86 52.24 53.55 54.71 55.16 49.62 104.5 52.50 48.08 73.00 98.17 123.53 149.04 25.36 25.51
HARD SPUN LANE'S END S (G2) TP 0324 9.00 1.0340 1.0518 0.99999 55.27 53.86 54.57 55.83 54.20 52.45 107.7 51.32 47.24 71.84 96.73 121.83 147.11 25.10 25.28
HARD SPUN KENTUCKY DERBY (G1) CD 0505 10.00 1.0639 1.0238 1.00000 55.77 53.55 54.66 57.14 53.22 51.32 107.1 52.08 46.17 71.08 96.53 122.39 148.59 25.86 26.20
HARD SPUN PREAKNESS S (G1) PIM 0519 9.50 1.0346 1.0438 0.99975 56.73 54.40 55.57 56.66 56.87 52.06 108.8 52.14 46.42 70.61 95.08 119.78 144.64 24.69 24.86
IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY RISEN STAR S (G3) FG 0210 8.50 1.0353 1.0559 0.99997 54.70 53.13 53.91 55.29 53.60 51.55 106.3 51.46 47.78 72.70 97.92 123.36 148.99 25.45 25.63
IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY LOUISIANA DERBY (G2) FG 0310 8.50 1.0137 1.0737 0.99979 54.94 53.25 54.10 54.63 55.53 51.55 106.5 51.59 48.30 72.85 97.52 122.27 147.09 24.75 24.82
IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY FLORIDA DERBY (G1) GP 0331 9.00 1.0126 1.0754 0.99998 54.52 53.66 54.09 54.61 54.33 52.81 107.3 50.81 48.43 73.02 97.71 122.48 147.32 24.77 24.84
IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY KENTUCKY DERBY (G1) CD 0505 10.00 0.9676 1.1240 0.99989 53.13 53.36 53.25 51.84 55.54 53.58 106.7 49.80 50.88 75.33 99.50 123.48 147.30 23.98 23.82
RAGS TO RICHES (f) LAS VIRGENES S (G1) SA 0210 8.00 1.0212 1.0670 0.99994 54.74 53.33 54.03 54.91 54.40 51.92 106.7 51.30 48.06 72.72 97.55 122.52 147.59 24.97 25.07
RAGS TO RICHES (f) SANTA ANITA OAKS (G1) SA 0311 8.50 1.0355 1.0496 1.00000 55.24 54.14 54.69 56.06 53.65 53.04 108.3 51.00 47.11 71.68 96.55 121.65 146.92 25.10 25.28
RAGS TO RICHES (f) KENTUCKY OAKS (G1) CD 0504 9.00 1.0127 1.0746 0.99999 54.27 54.01 54.14 54.71 53.42 53.76 108.0 50.25 47.11 71.68 97.53 122.26 147.05 24.73 24.79
SLEW'S TIZZY COOLMORE LEXINGTON S (G2) KEE 0421 8.50 1.0155 1.0698 1.00000 54.70 54.13 54.41 55.00 54.09 53.57 108.3 55.11 47.99 72.44 97.01 121.68 146.43 24.67 24.75
SLEW'S TIZZY LONE STAR DERBY (G3) LS 0512 8.50 1.0712 1.0267 0.99999 54.78 52.31 53.55 56.22 52.14 49.85 104.6 52.37 46.95 72.48 98.64 125.27 152.29 26.63 27.02
TIAGO ROBERT B. LEWIS S (G2) SA 0303 8.50 1.0410 1.0498 0.99964 55.37 52.53 53.95 55.40 55.32 49.68 105.1 53.11 47.48 72.42 97.70 123.25 149.01 25.55 25.76
TIAGO SANTA ANITA DERBY (G1) SA 0407 9.00 0.9892 1.0939 0.99993 54.59 54.17 54.38 54.01 55.69 53.75 108.3 54.11 48.92 73.05 97.10 121.09 145.02 23.98 23.93
TIAGO KENTUCKY DERBY (G1) CD 0505 10.00 0.9990 1.0925 0.99983 54.08 53.12 53.60 53.35 55.44 52.16 106.2 50.93 49.43 74.12 98.80 123.47 148.13 24.67 24.67
 
The following table shows the ranking of the contenders in each of the five pace categories and separately by PF (Performance Figure).  They are displayed in the order of ascending average rank order for pace parameters only.
  
2007 Contender  3Fr   %E   12f   12fTT   12fLQ   PF   Rank 
CURLIN 1 3 1 1 1   2 (-52) 1
IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY 4 1 7 2 2 6 (-43) 2 (tie)
TIAGO 3 4 3 3 3 5 (-45) 2 (tie)
RAGS TO RICHES (f) 2 2 6 6 5 1 (-64) 4
SLEW'S TIZZY 5 7 5 4 4 4 (-48) 5
HARD SPUN  7 6 2 5 6 3 (-49) 6
C P WEST 6 5 4 7 7 7 (-30) 7

Definition of Pace Terms:

Slope is a measure of fatigue.  It parallels the increase in time required to negotiate an additional distance.  The higher the number, the steeper the slope, indicating that the fatigue rate is greater.  Slopes will generally fall between 0.9 (slow early-fast late) and 1.2 (fast early-slow late).

Int., or Intercept is a measure of early speed and is inversely related to the slope.  In this case, the lower the intercept, the greater the relative early speed.  Intercepts also will usually fall between 0.9 (fast early) and 1.2 (slow early).

CC, or Correlation Coefficient is a measure of how efficiently a horse's speed is used throughout the whole race.  Perfect efficiency is equal to a CC of 1.00000.  Any value below 1.00000 represents less than ideal efficiency, although it is almost always greater than 0.99900.  The very best horses continually display CC's above 0.99990 while lower quality horses may not display CCs that high.

The remaining terms are part of the "Sartin Methodology" for describing pace characteristics as discussed by Tom Brohamer ("Modern Pace Handicapping", by Tom Brohamer, William Morrow and Company, Inc,. New York, 1991):

EP (Early Pace) is velocity in fps (feet-per-second) to the second call.

SP (Sustained Pace) is the average of early pace and the final fraction, thus relating a horse's speed to the second call and his ability to finish.

AP (Average Pace) is the average  of EP and SP.

1Fr (First Fraction), 2Fr (Second Fraction) and 3Fr (Third Fraction) are the average velocities in fps between each of the calls.

TE (Total Energy) is the sum of EP and 3Fr.  It is the total available energy based on current conditions of distance, surface and track as well as inherent ability.

%E (Percent Early) is a relative measure of energy used through the second call (EP/TE).  Speed types display %E figures significantly higher than off-the-pace types, although the absolute numbers are greatly affected by the distance of a race.