Dosage: Pedigree & Performance
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Prep Race Pace Parameters for 2007 Kentucky Derby Entries

Below is presented a variety of pace parameters for Derby entries in 2007 prep races at a mile or more on dirt.  In addition to the horse, race, track, date and distance, we have included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times.  These are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 10f (unadjusted), the predicted turn time in a 10f race (10fTT) and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in a 10f race (10fLQ).  Following 10f is Adj10f which is the projected 10f time adjusted for the differences in track speed between the track on which the prep race was run and Churchill Downs.  The various pace parameters are described here. 

The historical guideline figures for all Derby winners since 1984 plus Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid are displayed in the following table.  The Adj10f number is missing because the comparative data is unavailable for the races used in developing the guideline figures.  The significance of Adj10f is left to the reader.  In addition, we have added the leading contenders by Performance Figures (PF) to the Top 5 summary.

3Fr %E 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
>=51.56 <=52.08 <=122.34 <=24.94 <=25.33

Cells colored green meet or exceed the guideline figures.  Cells colored red fail to meet the guideline figures.  Races for each horse are listed in chronological order with the latest race last.
 
HORSE RACE TRK DATE DIST SLOPE INT CC EP SP AP 1Fr 2Fr 3Fr TE %E 4f 6f 8f 9F 10f Adj10f 10fTT 10fLQ
ANY GIVEN SATURDAY SAM F. DAVIS S TAM 0217 8.50 1.0194 1.0689 0.99988 54.78 53.25 54.01 54.69 54.95 51.72 106.5 51.44 48.15 72.79 97.60 110.05 122.53 121.13 24.81 24.93
ANY GIVEN SATURDAY TAMPA BAY DERBY (G3) TAM 0317 8.50 1.0044 1.0787 0.99998 54.79 54.25 54.52 54.75 54.87 53.71 108.5 50.50 48.24 72.49 96.78 108.93 121.09 119.69 24.29 24.31
ANY GIVEN SATURDAY WOOD MEMORIAL S (G1) AQU 0407 9.00 1.0411 1.0457 0.99966 55.90 53.14 54.52 55.77 56.14 50.39 106.3 52.58 47.05 71.76 96.82 109.45 122.14 122.94 25.06 25.32
BWANA BULL CALIFORNIA DERBY GG 0128 8.50 1.0525 1.0404 0.99996 54.97 52.83 53.90 55.90 53.24 50.69 105.7 52.00 47.21 72.34 97.92 110.85 123.84 125.44 25.58 25.92
BWANA BULL EL CAMINO REAL DERBY (G3) BM 0310 8.50 1.0543 1.0327 0.99995 55.81 53.52 54.66 56.77 54.03 51.23 107.0 52.16 46.51 71.31 96.58 109.35 122.20 124.20 25.27 25.62
BWANA BULL SANTA ANITA DERBY (G1) SA 0407 9.00 1.0354 1.0546 0.99999 54.83 53.37 54.10 55.45 53.65 51.91 106.7 51.39 47.64 72.49 97.64 110.31 123.02 124.02 25.15 25.38
CIRCULAR QUAY RISEN STAR S (G3) FG 0210 8.50 1.0515 1.0458 0.99994 54.49 52.25 53.37 55.29 53.00 50.00 104.5 52.15 47.74 73.12 98.95 112.00 125.12 124.32 25.83 26.17
CIRCULAR QUAY LOUISIANA DERBY (G2) FG 0310 8.50 0.9903 1.0908 0.99988 54.94 54.18 54.56 54.31 56.14 53.42 108.4 50.69 48.65 72.69 96.65 108.60 120.55 119.75 23.96 23.90
COWTOWN CAT GOTHAM S (G3) AQUI 0310 8.50 0.9894 1.0989 0.99995 53.81 53.51 53.66 53.24 55.00 53.21 107.0 50.29 49.50 73.93 98.27 110.42 122.55 122.35 24.34 24.28
COWTOWN CAT ILLINOIS DERBY (G2) HAW 0407 9.00 1.0006 1.0899 0.99990 53.95 53.17 53.56 53.44 55.00 52.38 106.3 50.75 49.24 73.88 98.52 110.84 123.16 121.76 24.64 24.64
CURLIN REBEL S (G3) OP 0317 8.50 1.0134 1.0759 0.99986 54.52 53.08 53.80 54.31 54.93 51.63 106.2 51.34 48.53 73.20 97.97 110.39 122.83 122.83 24.78 24.86
CURLIN ARKANSAS DERBY (G2) OP 0414 9.00 1.0124 1.0752 1.00000 54.34 53.84 54.09 54.60 53.83 53.34 107.7 50.45 48.39 72.94 97.61 109.97 122.35 122.35 24.66 24.74
DOMINICAN RUSHAWAY S TP 0324 8.50 1.0179 1.0680 0.99999 54.79 53.91 54.35 55.04 54.30 53.03 107.8 50.83 47.95 72.45 97.10 109.47 121.86 119.86 24.65 24.76
DOMINICAN TOYOTA BLUE GRASS S (G1) KEE 0414 9.00 0.9349 1.1564 0.99968 51.17 54.78 52.98 50.68 52.18 58.38 109.6 46.69 52.39 76.54 100.16 111.82 123.40 124.00 23.62 23.24
GREAT HUNTER ROBERT B. LEWIS S (G2) SA 0303 8.50 1.0171 1.0663 0.99999 55.09 54.25 54.67 55.40 54.50 53.40 108.5 50.78 47.71 72.07 96.57 108.86 121.17 122.17 24.50 24.60
GREAT HUNTER TOYOTA BLUE GRASS S (G1) KEE 0414 9.00 0.9483 1.1444 0.99982 51.50 54.33 52.91 51.07 52.38 57.15 108.7 47.38 51.92 76.26 100.18 112.02 123.79 124.39 23.92 23.61
HARD SPUN LECOMTE S (G3) FG 0113 8.00 1.0675 1.0242 0.99981 55.77 52.51 54.14 56.65 54.09 49.25 105.0 53.12 46.44 71.59 97.33 110.37 123.50 122.70 25.73 26.18
HARD SPUN SOUTHWEST S OP 0219 8.00 1.0298 1.0620 0.99965 54.86 52.24 53.55 54.71 55.16 49.62 104.5 52.50 48.08 73.00 98.17 110.83 123.53 123.53 25.17 25.36
HARD SPUN LANE'S END S (G2) TP 0324 9.00 1.0340 1.0518 0.99999 55.27 53.86 54.57 55.83 54.20 52.45 107.7 51.32 47.24 71.84 96.73 109.26 121.83 119.83 24.89 25.10
IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY RISEN STAR S (G3) FG 0210 8.50 1.0353 1.0559 0.99997 54.70 53.13 53.91 55.29 53.60 51.55 106.3 51.46 47.78 72.70 97.92 110.62 123.36 122.56 25.22 25.45
IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY    LOUISIANA DERBY (G2) FG 0310 8.50 1.0137 1.0737 0.99979 54.94 53.25 54.10 54.63 55.53 51.55 106.5 51.59 48.30 72.85 97.52 109.88 122.27 121.47 24.67 24.75
IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY    FLORIDA DERBY (G1) GP 0331 9.00 1.0126 1.0754 0.99998 54.52 53.66 54.09 54.61 54.33 52.81 107.3 50.81 48.43 73.02 97.71 110.09 122.48 122.48 24.69 24.77
LIQUIDITY SHAM S (G3) SA 0204 9.00 1.0114 1.0725 1.00000 54.70 54.41 54.55 55.00 54.09 54.12 108.8 50.27 48.01 72.36 96.79 109.03 121.29 122.29 24.43 24.50
LIQUIDITY LOUISIANA DERBY (G2) FG 0310 8.50 1.0677 1.0248 0.99983 55.72 52.55 54.14 56.57 54.09 49.38 105.1 53.02 46.51 71.71 97.50 110.56 123.73 122.93 25.78 26.23
LIQUIDITY SANTA ANITA DERBY (G1) SA 0407 9.00 1.0540 1.0356 0.99995 55.46 53.23 54.34 56.30 53.86 50.99 106.5 52.08 46.79 71.74 97.15 109.99 122.91 123.91 25.41 25.76
NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ HOLY BULL S (G3) GP 0203 8.00 1.0202 1.0570 0.99993 56.09 54.66 55.38 56.17 55.93 53.23 109.3 51.32 46.91 70.94 95.13 107.28 119.45 119.45 24.20 24.32
NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S (G2) GP 0303 9.00 1.0516 1.0320 0.99977 56.52 53.64 55.08 56.85 55.88 50.77 107.3 52.67 46.25 70.85 95.88 108.52 121.24 121.24 25.03 25.36
NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ WOOD MEMORIAL S (G1) AQU 0407 9.00 1.0353 1.0489 0.99978 55.93 53.62 54.77 55.88 56.03 51.30 107.2 52.18 47.01 71.53 96.35 108.84 121.38 122.18 24.82 25.04
SAM P. HOLY BULL S (G3) GP 0203 8.00 1.0367 1.0519 0.99990 55.24 53.18 54.21 55.59 54.55 51.11 106.4 51.92 47.43 72.22 97.32 109.96 122.65 122.65 25.10 25.33
SAM P. ROBERT B. LEWIS S (G2) SA 0303 8.50 1.0356 1.0498 0.99998 55.41 53.85 54.63 55.98 54.30 52.29 107.7 51.45 47.13 71.72 96.62 109.15 121.73 122.73 24.89 25.12
SAM P. SANTA ANITA DERBY (G1) SA 0407 9.00 1.0544 1.0354 1.00000 55.22 53.46 54.34 56.41 52.94 51.71 106.9 51.65 46.80 71.76 97.19 110.04 122.97 123.97 25.43 25.78
SCAT DADDY HOLY BULL S (G3) GP 0203 8.00 1.0284 1.0520 0.99992 55.95 54.23 55.09 56.17 55.50 52.52 108.5 51.57 46.90 71.16 95.66 107.98 120.34 120.34 24.50 24.67
SCAT DADDY FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S (G2) GP 0303 9.00 1.0400 1.0428 0.99978 56.30 53.79 55.05 56.41 56.09 51.28 107.6 52.33 46.66 71.13 95.94 108.44 121.00 121.00 24.81 25.06
SCAT DADDY FLORIDA DERBY (G1) GP 0331 9.00 1.0400 1.0440 0.99995 55.79 53.94 54.87 56.33 54.75 52.09 107.9 51.71 46.79 71.33 96.21 108.75 121.34 121.34 24.88 25.13
SEDGEFIELD LANE'S END S (G2) TP 0324 9.00 1.0361 1.0524 0.99999 54.99 53.56 54.27 55.61 53.79 52.12 107.1 51.35 47.45 72.22 97.29 109.92 122.60 120.60 25.08 25.31
STORMELLO FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S (G2) GP 0303 9.00 1.0638 1.0202 0.99982 56.73 53.62 55.18 57.39 55.46 50.51 107.2 52.92 45.78 70.47 95.70 108.48 121.35 121.35 25.23 25.64
STORMELLO FLORIDA DERBY (G1) GP 0331 9.00 1.0569 1.0306 0.99990 55.93 53.36 54.65 56.65 54.54 50.79 106.7 52.42 46.44 71.29 96.62 109.42 122.31 122.31 25.33 25.70
STORM IN MAY ARKANSAS DERBY (G2) OP 0414 9.00 1.0055 1.0886 0.99989 53.72 52.73 53.22 53.35 54.43 51.74 105.5 50.92 49.43 74.31 99.24 111.71 124.20 124.20 24.93 24.96
STREET SENSE TAMPA BAY DERBY (G3) TAM 0317 8.50 0.9910 1.0917 1.00000 54.38 54.53 54.45 54.22 54.67 54.68 109.1 49.84 48.79 72.92 96.98 108.98 120.98 119.58 24.06 24.00
STREET SENSE TOYOTA BLUE GRASS S (G1) KEE 0414 9.00 0.9397 1.1514 0.99979 51.44 54.62 53.03 50.88 52.57 57.80 109.2 47.10 52.13 76.31 100.00 111.70 123.33 123.93 23.69 23.33
TEUFLESBERG SOUTHWEST S OP 0219 8.00 1.0368 1.0538 0.99983 55.00 52.69 53.85 55.23 54.54 50.38 105.4 52.18 47.65 72.55 97.76 110.46 123.21 123.21 25.21 25.45
TEUFLESBERG REBEL S (G3) OP 0317 8.50 1.0380 1.0584 0.99965 54.56 51.85 53.21 54.52 54.63 49.15 103.7 52.61 48.23 73.47 99.04 111.92 124.85 124.85 25.57 25.81
TEUFLESBERG TOYOTA BLUE GRASS S (G1) KEE 0414 9.00 0.9522 1.1396 0.99981 51.70 54.42 53.06 51.36 52.38 57.15 108.8 47.52 51.62 75.94 99.88 111.73 123.52 124.12 23.93 23.64
TIAGO ROBERT B. LEWIS S (G2) SA 0303 8.50 1.0410 1.0498 0.99964 55.37 52.53 53.95 55.40 55.32 49.68 105.1 52.69 47.48 72.42 97.71 110.45 123.26 124.26 25.29 25.55
TIAGO SANTA ANITA DERBY (G1) SA 0407 9.00 0.9892 1.0939 0.99993 54.59 54.17 54.38 54.01 55.69 53.75 108.3 50.40 48.91 73.05 97.10 109.10 121.08 122.08 24.05 23.98
ZANJERO RISEN STAR S (G3) FG 0210 8.50 1.0283 1.0622 0.99996 54.63 53.17 53.90 55.02 53.90 51.71 106.3 51.39 48.01 72.85 97.92 110.53 123.18 122.38 25.08 25.26
ZANJERO LOUISIANA DERBY (G2) FG 0310 8.50 0.9880 1.0984 0.99999 54.03 53.91 53.97 53.66 54.71 53.80 107.8 50.12 49.35 73.66 97.88 109.96 122.03 121.23 24.22 24.14
ZANJERO TOYOTA BLUE GRASS S (G1) KEE 0414 9.00 0.9444 1.1471 0.99973 51.44 54.62 53.03 51.07 52.18 57.80 109.2 47.10 51.97 76.21 100.01 111.77 123.47 124.07 23.79 23.46


Top 5 in each major pace category as of May 2:
(The final order will include only those horses entered in the Derby.)
3Fr %E 10f Adj10f 10fTT 10fLQ PF
DOMINICAN DOMINICAN NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ DOMINICAN DOMINICAN CIRCULAR QUAY (-65)
STREET SENSE STREET SENSE DRUMS OF THUNDER DRUMS OF THUNDER STREET SENSE STREET SENSE STREET SENSE (-60)
ZANJERO ZANJERO SCAT DADDY STREET SENSE ZANJERO ZANJERO ANY GIVEN SATURDAY (-60)
TEUFLESBERG GREAT HUNTER CIRCULAR QUAY ANY GIVEN SATURDAY GREAT HUNTER GREAT HUNTER NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ (-55)
GREAT HUNTER TEUFLESBERG SUMMER DOLDRUMS CIRCULAR QUAY TEUFLESBERG TEUFLESBERG DOMINICAN (-54)
            ZANJERO (-54)

These are the top 5 in each major pace category as of May 2 excluding the Blue Grass Stakes:
(The exclusion is based on the unique and unusual pace characteristics of that race.)
3Fr %E 10f Adj10f 10fTT 10fLQ PF
STREET SENSE STREET SENSE NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ CIRCULAR QUAY CIRCULAR QUAY CIRCULAR QUAY (-65)
LIQUIDITY ZANJERO SCAT DADDY STREET SENSE TIAGO TIAGO STREET SENSE (-60)
ZANJERO LIQUIDITY CIRCULAR QUAY ANY GIVEN SATURDAY STREET SENSE STREET SENSE ANY GIVEN SATURDAY (-60)
TIAGO COWTOWN CAT STREET SENSE CIRCULAR QUAY NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ ZANJERO NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ (-55)
ANY GIVEN SATURDAY TIAGO TIAGO HARD SPUN ZANJERO COWTOWN CAT DOMINICAN (-54)
             ZANJERO (-54)

  
Since 1998, the Derby winner has been among the top 5 seven times in 3Fr, 4 times in %E, 6 times each in 10f, 10fTT and 10fLQ and 7 times in PF.

Definition of Pace Terms:

Slope is a measure of fatigue.  It parallels the increase in time required to negotiate an additional distance.  The higher the number, the steeper the slope, indicating that the fatigue rate is greater.  Slopes will generally fall between 0.9 (slow early-fast late) and 1.2 (fast early-slow late).

Int., or Intercept is a measure of early speed and is inversely related to the slope.  In this case, the lower the intercept, the greater the relative early speed.  Intercepts also will usually fall between 0.9 (fast early) and 1.2 (slow early).

CC, or Correlation Coefficient is a measure of how efficiently a horse's speed is used throughout the whole race.  Perfect efficiency is equal to a CC of 1.00000.  Any value below 1.00000 represents less than ideal efficiency, although it is almost always greater than 0.99900.  The very best horses continually display CC's above 0.99990 while lower quality horses may not display CCs that high.

The remaining terms are part of the "Sartin Methodology" for describing pace characteristics as discussed by Tom Brohamer ("Modern Pace Handicapping", by Tom Brohamer, William Morrow and Company, Inc,. New York, 1991):

EP (Early Pace) is velocity in fps (feet-per-second) to the second call.

SP (Sustained Pace) is the average of early pace and the final fraction, thus relating a horse's speed to the second call and his ability to finish.

AP (Average Pace) is the average  of EP and SP.

1Fr (First Fraction), 2Fr (Second Fraction) and 3Fr (Third Fraction) are the average velocities in fps between each of the calls.

TE (Total Energy) is the sum of EP and 3Fr.  It is the total available energy based on current conditions of distance, surface and track as well as inherent ability.

%E (Percent Early) is a relative measure of energy used through the second call (EP/TE).  Speed types display %E figures significantly higher than off-the-pace types, although the absolute numbers are greatly affected by the distance of a race.

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