Dosage: Pedigree & Performance
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Prep Race Pace Parameters for 2007 Kentucky Derby Entries

Below is presented a variety of pace parameters for Derby entries in 2007 prep races at a mile or more on dirt.  In addition to the horse, race, track, date and distance, we have included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times.  These are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 10f (unadjusted), the predicted turn time in a 10f race (10fTT) and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in a 10f race (10fLQ).  Following 10f is Adj10f which is the projected 10f time adjusted for the differences in track speed between the track on which the prep race was run and Churchill Downs.  The various pace parameters are described here. 

The historical guideline figures for all Derby winners since 1984 plus Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid are displayed in the following table.  The Adj10f number is missing because the comparative data is unavailable for the races used in developing the guideline figures.  The significance of Adj10f is left to the reader.  In addition, we have added the leading contenders by Performance Figures (PF) to the Top 5 summary.

3Fr %E 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
>=51.56 <=52.08 <=122.34 <=24.94 <=25.33

Cells colored green meet or exceed the guideline figures.  Cells colored red fail to meet the guideline figures.  Races for each horse are listed in chronological order with the latest race last.
 
HORSE RACE TRK DATE DIST SLOPE INT CC EP SP AP 1Fr 2Fr 3Fr TE %E 4f 6f 8f 9F 10f Adj10f 10fTT 10fLQ
ANY GIVEN SATURDAY SAM F. DAVIS S TAM 0217 8.50 1.0194 1.0689 0.99988 54.78 53.25 54.01 54.69 54.95 51.72 106.5 51.44 48.15 72.79 97.60 110.05 122.53 121.13 24.81 24.93
ANY GIVEN SATURDAY TAMPA BAY DERBY (G3) TAM 0317 8.50 1.0044 1.0787 0.99998 54.79 54.25 54.52 54.75 54.87 53.71 108.5 50.50 48.24 72.49 96.78 108.93 121.09 119.69 24.29 24.31
ANY GIVEN SATURDAY WOOD MEMORIAL S (G1) AQU 0407 9.00 1.0411 1.0457 0.99966 55.90 53.14 54.52 55.77 56.14 50.39 106.3 52.58 47.05 71.76 96.82 109.45 122.14 122.94 25.06 25.32
BWANA BULL CALIFORNIA DERBY GG 0128 8.50 1.0525 1.0404 0.99996 54.97 52.83 53.90 55.90 53.24 50.69 105.7 52.00 47.21 72.34 97.92 110.85 123.84 125.44 25.58 25.92
BWANA BULL EL CAMINO REAL DERBY (G3) BM 0310 8.50 1.0543 1.0327 0.99995 55.81 53.52 54.66 56.77 54.03 51.23 107.0 52.16 46.51 71.31 96.58 109.35 122.20 124.20 25.27 25.62
BWANA BULL SANTA ANITA DERBY (G1) SA 0407 9.00 1.0354 1.0546 0.99999 54.83 53.37 54.10 55.45 53.65 51.91 106.7 51.39 47.64 72.49 97.64 110.31 123.02 124.02 25.15 25.38
CIRCULAR QUAY RISEN STAR S (G3) FG 0210 8.50 1.0515 1.0458 0.99994 54.49 52.25 53.37 55.29 53.00 50.00 104.5 52.15 47.74 73.12 98.95 112.00 125.12 124.32 25.83 26.17
CIRCULAR QUAY LOUISIANA DERBY (G2) FG 0310 8.50 0.9903 1.0908 0.99988 54.94 54.18 54.56 54.31 56.14 53.42 108.4 50.69 48.65 72.69 96.65 108.60 120.55 119.75 23.96 23.90
COWTOWN CAT GOTHAM S (G3) AQUI 0310 8.50 0.9894 1.0989 0.99995 53.81 53.51 53.66 53.24 55.00 53.21 107.0 50.29 49.50 73.93 98.27 110.42 122.55 122.35 24.34 24.28
COWTOWN CAT ILLINOIS DERBY (G2) HAW 0407 9.00 1.0006 1.0899 0.99990 53.95 53.17 53.56 53.44 55.00 52.38 106.3 50.75 49.24 73.88 98.52 110.84 123.16 121.76 24.64 24.64
CURLIN REBEL S (G3) OP 0317 8.50 1.0134 1.0759 0.99986 54.52 53.08 53.80 54.31 54.93 51.63 106.2 51.34 48.53 73.20 97.97 110.39 122.83 122.83 24.78 24.86
CURLIN ARKANSAS DERBY (G2) OP 0414 9.00 1.0124 1.0752 1.00000 54.34 53.84 54.09 54.60 53.83 53.34 107.7 50.45 48.39 72.94 97.61 109.97 122.35 122.35 24.66 24.74
DOMINICAN RUSHAWAY S TP 0324 8.50 1.0179 1.0680 0.99999 54.79 53.91 54.35 55.04 54.30 53.03 107.8 50.83 47.95 72.45 97.10 109.47 121.86 119.86 24.65 24.76
DOMINICAN TOYOTA BLUE GRASS S (G1) KEE 0414 9.00 0.9349 1.1564 0.99968 51.17 54.78 52.98 50.68 52.18 58.38 109.6 46.69 52.39 76.54 100.16 111.82 123.40 124.00 23.62 23.24
GREAT HUNTER ROBERT B. LEWIS S (G2) SA 0303 8.50 1.0171 1.0663 0.99999 55.09 54.25 54.67 55.40 54.50 53.40 108.5 50.78 47.71 72.07 96.57 108.86 121.17 122.17 24.50 24.60
GREAT HUNTER TOYOTA BLUE GRASS S (G1) KEE 0414 9.00 0.9483 1.1444 0.99982 51.50 54.33 52.91 51.07 52.38 57.15 108.7 47.38 51.92 76.26 100.18 112.02 123.79 124.39 23.92 23.61
HARD SPUN LECOMTE S (G3) FG 0113 8.00 1.0675 1.0242 0.99981 55.77 52.51 54.14 56.65 54.09 49.25 105.0 53.12 46.44 71.59 97.33 110.37 123.50 122.70 25.73 26.18
HARD SPUN SOUTHWEST S OP 0219 8.00 1.0298 1.0620 0.99965 54.86 52.24 53.55 54.71 55.16 49.62 104.5 52.50 48.08 73.00 98.17 110.83 123.53 123.53 25.17 25.36
HARD SPUN LANE'S END S (G2) TP 0324 9.00 1.0340 1.0518 0.99999 55.27 53.86 54.57 55.83 54.20 52.45 107.7 51.32 47.24 71.84 96.73 109.26 121.83 119.83 24.89 25.10
IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY RISEN STAR S (G3) FG 0210 8.50 1.0353 1.0559 0.99997 54.70 53.13 53.91 55.29 53.60 51.55 106.3 51.46 47.78 72.70 97.92 110.62 123.36 122.56 25.22 25.45
IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY    LOUISIANA DERBY (G2) FG 0310 8.50 1.0137 1.0737 0.99979 54.94 53.25 54.10 54.63 55.53 51.55 106.5 51.59 48.30 72.85 97.52 109.88 122.27 121.47 24.67 24.75
IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY    FLORIDA DERBY (G1) GP 0331 9.00 1.0126 1.0754 0.99998 54.52 53.66 54.09 54.61 54.33 52.81 107.3 50.81 48.43 73.02 97.71 110.09 122.48 122.48 24.69 24.77
LIQUIDITY SHAM S (G3) SA 0204 9.00 1.0114 1.0725 1.00000 54.70 54.41 54.55 55.00 54.09 54.12 108.8