Dosage: Pedigree & Performance
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Prep Race Pace Parameters for 2007 Preakness Stakes Contenders

Below is presented a variety of pace parameters for Preakness contenders in 2007 prep races at a mile or more on dirt.  In addition to the horse, race, track, date and distance, we have included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times.  These are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 9 1/2f (unadjusted), the predicted turn time in a 9 1/2f race (9.5fTT) and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in a 10f race (9.5fLQ).  The various pace parameters are described at the end of the following tables.

Data from the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) are excluded because of the unique and unusual pace characteristics of that race. 
  
HORSE RACE TRK DATE DIST SLOPE INT CC EP SP AP 1Fr 2Fr 3Fr TE %E 4f 6f 8f 9f 9.5f 9.5fTT 9.5fLQ
C P WEST WITHERS S (G3) AQU 0428 8.00 1.0604 1.0205 0.99998 56.68 54.39 55.54 57.87 54.44 52.10 108.8 52.10 45.60 70.09 95.10 107.75 114.11 24.89 25.30
CIRCULAR QUAY RISEN STAR S (G3) FG 210 8.50 1.0515 1.0458 0.99994 54.49 52.25 53.37 55.29 53.00 50.00 104.5 52.15 47.74 73.12 98.95 111.99 118.54 25.73 26.09
CIRCULAR QUAY LOUISIANA DERBY (G2) FG 310 8.50 0.9903 1.0908 0.99988 54.94 54.18 54.56 54.31 56.14 53.42 108.4 50.69 48.64 72.68 96.63 108.59 114.56 23.97 23.91
CIRCULAR QUAY KENTUCKY DERBY (G1) CD 0505 10.00 0.9935 1.0973 0.99979 54.08 53.19 53.64 53.14 55.84 52.30 106.4 50.83 49.60 74.20 98.75 111.01 117.13 24.56 24.52
CURLIN REBEL S (G3) OP 0317 8.50 1.0134 1.0759 0.99986 54.52 53.08 53.80 54.31 54.93 51.63 106.2 51.34 48.53 73.20 97.97 110.39 116.61 24.75 24.84
CURLIN ARKANSAS DERBY (G2) OP 0414 9.00 1.0124 1.0752 1.00000 54.34 53.84 54.09 54.60 53.83 53.34 107.7 50.45 48.39 72.94 97.61 109.97 116.15 24.64 24.72
CURLIN KENTUCKY DERBY (G1) CD 0505 10.00 1.0193 1.0717 0.99996 54.44 53.25 53.84 54.55 54.23 52.06 106.5 51.11 48.46 73.27 98.24 110.77 117.04 24.93 25.06
FLYING FIRST CLASS   REBEL S (G3) OP 0317 8.50 1.0645 1.0375 0.99954 54.70 50.95 52.82 55.04 54.03 47.20 101.9 53.68 47.69 73.43 99.74 113.06 119.76 26.18 26.64
FLYING FIRST CLASS ARKANSAS DERBY (G2) OP 0414 9.00 1.0204 1.0752 0.99974 54.13 52.23 53.18 53.77 54.83 50.33 104.5 51.80 48.93 74.01 99.26 111.93 118.28 25.21 25.35
HARD SPUN LECOMTE S (G3) FG 0113 8.00 1.0675 1.0242 0.99981 55.77 52.51 54.14 56.65 54.09 49.25 105.0 53.12 46.44 71.59 97.33 110.37 116.92 25.61 26.08
HARD SPUN SOUTHWEST S OP 0219 8.00 1.0298 1.0620 0.99965 54.86 52.24 53.55 54.71 55.16 49.62 104.5 52.50 48.08 73.00 98.17 110.83 117.17 25.11 25.32
HARD SPUN LANE'S END S (G2) TP 0324 9.00 1.0340 1.0518 0.99999 55.27 53.86 54.57 55.83 54.20 52.45 107.7 51.32 47.24 71.84 96.73 109.26 115.54 24.82 25.05
HARD SPUN KENTUCKY DERBY (G1) CD 0505 10.00 1.0639 1.0238 1.00000 55.77 53.55 54.66 57.14 53.22 51.32 107.1 52.08 46.17 71.08 96.53 109.41 115.89 25.33 25.77
KING OF THE ROXY SANTA ANITA DERBY (G1) SA 0407 9.00 1.0377 1.0488 0.99999 55.25 53.81 54.53 55.98 53.86 52.37 107.6 51.35 47.16 71.83 96.82 109.40 115.72 24.92 25.17
MINT SLEWLEP GOTHAM S (G3) AQU 0310 8.50 1.0065 1.0893 0.99997 53.34 52.67 53.00 53.19 53.64 52.00 105.3 50.65 49.57 74.55 99.59 112.12 118.39 25.02 25.07
MINT SLEWLEP LRL ALW LRL 0406 8.00 1.0619 1.0329 0.99995 55.00 52.50 53.75 56.06 53.00 50.00 105.0 52.38 47.02 72.31 98.15 111.23 117.80 25.72 26.15
MINT SLEWLEP WITHERS S (G3) AQU 0428 8.00 1.0684 1.0160 0.99999 56.25 54.43 55.34 57.93 53.09 52.60 108.9 51.65 45.63 70.38 95.70 108.53 114.99 25.19 25.66
STREET SENSE TAMPA BAY DERBY (G3) TAM 0317 8.50 0.9910 1.0917 1.00000 54.38 54.53 54.45 54.22 54.67 54.68 109.1 49.84 48.79 72.92 96.98 108.98 114.98 24.07 24.01
STREET SENSE KENTUCKY DERBY (G1) CD 0505 10.00 0.9723 1.1125 0.99988 54.08 54.10 54.09 52.92 56.25 54.12 108.2 49.99 49.88 73.98 97.86 109.74 115.66 23.93 23.75
XCHANGER SOUTHWEST S OP 0219 8.00 1.0364 1.0576 0.99981 54.62 52.26 53.44 54.81 54.23 49.90 104.5 52.27 48.04 73.13 98.54 111.33 117.75 25.34 25.59
XCHANGER REBEL S (G3) OP 0317 8.50 1.0747 1.0283 0.99971 54.70 51.03 52.86 55.46 53.22 47.36 102.1 53.57 47.35 73.22 99.74 113.20 119.97 26.38 26.92
XCHANGER FEDERICO TESIO S PIM 0421 9.00 1.0622 1.0258 0.99994 55.93 53.35 54.64 56.90 54.09 50.77 106.7 52.42 46.27 71.18 96.63 109.50 115.98 25.32 25.75

These are the top 5 in the major categories:

3Fr %E 9.5f 9.5fTT 9.5fLQ PF
STREET SENSE  STREET SENSE  C P WEST STREET SENSE STREET SENSE  CIRCULAR QUAY (-65)
CIRCULAR QUAY  CURLIN CIRCULAR QUAY  CIRCULAR QUAY  CIRCULAR QUAY  STREET SENSE (-60)
CURLIN MINT SLEWLEP STREET SENSE CURLIN CURLIN HARD SPUN (-49)
MINT SLEWLEP CIRCULAR QUAY  MINT SLEWLEP  HARD SPUN HARD SPUN CURLIN (-44)
HARD SPUN HARD SPUN HARD SPUN C P WEST MINT SLEWLEP KING OF THE ROXY (-43)
 
The last table shows the ranking of the contenders in each of the five pace categories.  They are displayed in the order of ascending average rank order.
  
2007 Contender  3Fr   %E   9.5f   9.5fTT   9.5fLQ   Rank 
STREET SENSE 1 1 3 1 1 1
CIRCULAR QUAY 2 4 2 2 2 2
CURLIN 3 2 8 3 3 3
HARD SPUN 5 5 5 4 4 4 (tie)
MINT SLEWLEP 4 3 4 7 5 4 (tie)
KING OF THE ROXY 6 6 6 6 6 6
C P WEST 7 8 1 5 7 7
FLYING FIRST CLASS  9 7 9 8 8 8
XCHANGER 8 9 7 9 9 9

Definition of Pace Terms:

Slope is a measure of fatigue.  It parallels the increase in time required to negotiate an additional distance.  The higher the number, the steeper the slope, indicating that the fatigue rate is greater.  Slopes will generally fall between 0.9 (slow early-fast late) and 1.2 (fast early-slow late).

Int., or Intercept is a measure of early speed and is inversely related to the slope.  In this case, the lower the intercept, the greater the relative early speed.  Intercepts also will usually fall between 0.9 (fast early) and 1.2 (slow early).

CC, or Correlation Coefficient is a measure of how efficiently a horse's speed is used throughout the whole race.  Perfect efficiency is equal to a CC of 1.00000.  Any value below 1.00000 represents less than ideal efficiency, although it is almost always greater than 0.99900.  The very best horses continually display CC's above 0.99990 while lower quality horses may not display CCs that high.

The remaining terms are part of the "Sartin Methodology" for describing pace characteristics as discussed by Tom Brohamer ("Modern Pace Handicapping", by Tom Brohamer, William Morrow and Company, Inc,. New York, 1991):

EP (Early Pace) is velocity in fps (feet-per-second) to the second call.

SP (Sustained Pace) is the average of early pace and the final fraction, thus relating a horse's speed to the second call and his ability to finish.

AP (Average Pace) is the average  of EP and SP.

1Fr (First Fraction), 2Fr (Second Fraction) and 3Fr (Third Fraction) are the average velocities in fps between each of the calls.

TE (Total Energy) is the sum of EP and 3Fr.  It is the total available energy based on current conditions of distance, surface and track as well as inherent ability.

%E (Percent Early) is a relative measure of energy used through the second call (EP/TE).  Speed types display %E figures significantly higher than off-the-pace types, although the absolute numbers are greatly affected by the distance of a race.