Dosage: Pedigree & Performance
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Pace Parameters for 2008 Kentucky Derby Prep Races

Below is presented a variety of pace parameters for Derby contenders in 2008 prep races at a mile or more on dirt.  In addition to the horse, race, track, date and distance, we have included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times.  These are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 10f (unadjusted), the predicted turn time in a 10f race (10fTT) and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in a 10f race (10fLQ).  Following 10f is Adj10f which is the projected 10f time adjusted for the differences in track speed between the track on which the prep race was run and Churchill Downs.  The various pace parameters are described here. 

The historical guideline figures for all Derby winners since 1984 plus Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid are displayed in the following table.  The Adj10f number is missing because the comparative data is unavailable for the races used in developing the guideline figures.  The significance of Adj10f is left to the reader.

3Fr TE %E 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
>=51.56 >=107.3 <=52.08 <=122.34 <=24.94 <=25.33

Cells colored green meet or exceed the guideline figures.  Cells colored red fail to meet the guideline figures.  Races for each horse are listed in chronological order with the latest race last.  The top five in each category include only those horses believed still in consideration for the Kentucky Derby.
 
Pace parameters for the Gotham Stakes (G3) contested on March 8 are unavailable because the positions of the horses at the fractional distances were obscured by the weather conditions.
 
HORSE RACE TRK DATE DIST SLOPE INT CC EP SP AP 1FR 2FR 3FR TE %E 4F 6F 8F 9F 10F ADJ10F 10FTT 10FLQ
ABSOLUTELY CINDY JOHN BATTAGLIA MEMORIAL S TP 0301 8.50 0.9674 1.1175 0.99956 54.18 53.32 53.75 52.63 56.93 52.47 106.6 50.82 50.11 74.18 97.98 109.80 121.58 120.78 23.80 23.61
ABSOLUTELY CINDY ASHLAND S KEE 0405 8.50 0.9662 1.1222 0.99996 53.17 53.73 53.45 52.18 55.20 54.30 107.5 49.46 50.57 74.82 98.79 110.70 122.56 122.56 23.97 23.77
ADRIANO FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S GP 0224 9.00 1.0360 1.0632 0.99963 54.31 51.67 52.99 54.04 54.83 49.03 103.3 52.57 48.63 74.02 99.72 112.66 125.65 126.65 25.70 25.93
ADRIANO LANE'S END S TP 0322 9.00 1.0404 1.0497 1.00000 54.70 53.54 54.12 55.74 52.75 52.38 107.1 51.07 47.43 72.32 97.55 110.26 123.04 122.24 25.23 25.49
ANAL NAKAL FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S GP 0224 9.00 1.0218 1.0722 0.99973 54.48 52.47 53.48 54.11 55.20 50.45 104.9 51.94 48.68 73.67 98.84 111.48 124.15 124.15 25.17 25.31
ANAL NAKAL REBEL S OP 0315 8.50 1.0632 1.0359 0.99985 54.75 51.79 53.27 55.60 53.17 48.84 103.6 52.85 47.42 72.98 99.10 112.32 125.63 125.23 26.11 26.53
ANAL NAKAL WOOD MEMORIAL S AQU 0405 9.00 1.0509 1.0485 0.99991 54.34 51.99 53.16 55.05 53.05 49.63 104.0 52.25 47.99 73.49 99.43 112.53 125.70 124.70 25.94 26.28
ATONED TAMPA BAY DERBY TAM 0315 8.50 1.0306 1.0576 0.99968 55.36 52.91 54.13 55.17 55.72 50.46 105.8 52.32 47.65 72.37 97.34 109.90 122.51 121.51 24.97 25.17
ATONED ILLINOIS DERBY HAW 0405 9.00 0.9858 1.1003 0.99997 53.98 54.00 53.99 53.40 55.16 54.01 108.0 49.98 49.41 73.68 97.84 109.89 121.92 121.72 24.16 24.07
ATONED COOLMORE LEXINGTON S KEE 0419 8.50 1.0485 1.0412 0.99965 55.84 52.73 54.28 56.08 55.37 49.62 105.5 52.92 47.04 71.96 97.29 110.08 122.94 122.94 25.33 25.65
BARRIER REEF WHIRLAWAY S AQUI 0202 8.50 1.0057 1.0828 0.99994 54.25 53.40 53.82 54.06 54.60 52.55 106.8 50.79 48.79 73.36 97.97 110.29 122.62 122.42 24.61 24.65
BARRIER REEF TRANSYLVANIA S KEE 0404 8.50 0.9699 1.1243 0.99993 52.61 52.91 52.76 51.57 54.79 53.21 105.8 49.72 51.08 75.69 100.05 112.15 124.22 124.22 24.36 24.17
BEHINDATTHEBAR COOLMORE LEXINGTON S KEE 0419 8.50 0.9953 1.0822 0.99992 55.55 54.69 55.12 55.14 56.30 53.83 109.4 50.77 48.03 71.90 95.74 107.65 119.55 119.55 23.84 23.81
BIG BROWN ALW GP 0305 8.00 1.0734 1.0101 0.99996 56.73 53.95 55.34 58.19 54.06 51.16 107.9 52.58 45.33 70.05 95.40 108.25 121.22 121.22 25.35 25.82
BIG BROWN FLORIDA DERBY GP 0329 9.00 1.0579 1.0233 0.99998 56.57 54.34 55.46 57.64 54.54 52.11 108.7 52.04 45.73 70.22 95.20 107.83 120.54 120.54 24.98 25.35
BIG GLEN WEBN S TP 0202 8.00 0.9974 1.0911 0.99993 54.05 53.30 53.68 53.71 54.69 52.56 106.6 50.70 49.16 73.66 98.14 110.37 122.60 121.80 24.48 24.46
BIG GLEN RUSHAWAY S TP 0322 8.50 0.9887 1.0997 1.00000 53.57 53.85 53.71 53.32 54.06 54.14 107.7 49.74 49.54 73.97 98.31 110.45 122.58 121.78 24.34 24.27
BIG GLEN COOLMORE LEXINGTON S KEE 0419 8.50 1.0411 1.0416 0.99978 56.34 53.75 55.04 56.64 55.78 51.15 107.5 52.41 46.60 71.07 95.88 108.39 120.96 120.96 24.82 25.07
BIG TRUCK SAM F. DAVIS S TAM 0216 8.50 1.0105 1.0781 1.00000 54.19 53.70 53.94 54.38 53.83 53.21 107.4 50.46 48.58 73.17 97.86 110.23 122.61 121.61 24.69 24.75
BIG TRUCK TAMPA BAY DERBY TAM 0315 8.50 1.0329 1.0556 0.99977 55.29 52.99 54.14 55.27 55.31 50.69 106.0 52.16 47.59 72.34 97.37 109.97 122.61 121.61 25.03 25.24
BIG TRUCK BLUE GRASS S KEE<