Dosage: Pedigree & Performance
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Pace Parameters for 2008 Kentucky Derby Prep Races

Below is presented a variety of pace parameters for Derby contenders in 2008 prep races at a mile or more on dirt.  In addition to the horse, race, track, date and distance, we have included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times.  These are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 10f (unadjusted), the predicted turn time in a 10f race (10fTT) and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in a 10f race (10fLQ).  Following 10f is Adj10f which is the projected 10f time adjusted for the differences in track speed between the track on which the prep race was run and Churchill Downs.  The various pace parameters are described here. 

The historical guideline figures for all Derby winners since 1984 plus Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid are displayed in the following table.  The Adj10f number is missing because the comparative data is unavailable for the races used in developing the guideline figures.  The significance of Adj10f is left to the reader.

3Fr TE %E 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
>=51.56 >=107.3 <=52.08 <=122.34 <=24.94 <=25.33

Cells colored green meet or exceed the guideline figures.  Cells colored red fail to meet the guideline figures.  Races for each horse are listed in chronological order with the latest race last.  The top five in each category include only those horses believed still in consideration for the Kentucky Derby.
 
Pace parameters for the Gotham Stakes (G3) contested on March 8 are unavailable because the positions of the horses at the fractional distances were obscured by the weather conditions.
 
HORSE RACE TRK DATE DIST SLOPE INT CC EP SP AP 1FR 2FR 3FR TE %E 4F 6F 8F 9F 10F ADJ10F 10FTT 10FLQ
ABSOLUTELY CINDY JOHN BATTAGLIA MEMORIAL S TP 0301 8.50 0.9674 1.1175 0.99956 54.18 53.32 53.75 52.63 56.93 52.47 106.6 50.82 50.11 74.18 97.98 109.80 121.58 120.78 23.80 23.61
ABSOLUTELY CINDY ASHLAND S KEE 0405 8.50 0.9662 1.1222 0.99996 53.17 53.73 53.45 52.18 55.20 54.30 107.5 49.46 50.57 74.82 98.79 110.70 122.56 122.56 23.97 23.77
ADRIANO FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S GP 0224 9.00 1.0360 1.0632 0.99963 54.31 51.67 52.99 54.04 54.83 49.03 103.3 52.57 48.63 74.02 99.72 112.66 125.65 126.65 25.70 25.93
ADRIANO LANE'S END S TP 0322 9.00 1.0404 1.0497 1.00000 54.70 53.54 54.12 55.74 52.75 52.38 107.1 51.07 47.43 72.32 97.55 110.26 123.04 122.24 25.23 25.49
ANAL NAKAL FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S GP 0224 9.00 1.0218 1.0722 0.99973 54.48 52.47 53.48 54.11 55.20 50.45 104.9 51.94 48.68 73.67 98.84 111.48 124.15 124.15 25.17 25.31
ANAL NAKAL REBEL S OP 0315 8.50 1.0632 1.0359 0.99985 54.75 51.79 53.27 55.60 53.17 48.84 103.6 52.85 47.42 72.98 99.10 112.32 125.63 125.23 26.11 26.53
ANAL NAKAL WOOD MEMORIAL S AQU 0405 9.00 1.0509 1.0485 0.99991 54.34 51.99 53.16 55.05 53.05 49.63 104.0 52.25 47.99 73.49 99.43 112.53 125.70 124.70 25.94 26.28
ATONED TAMPA BAY DERBY TAM 0315 8.50 1.0306 1.0576 0.99968 55.36 52.91 54.13 55.17 55.72 50.46 105.8 52.32 47.65 72.37 97.34 109.90 122.51 121.51 24.97 25.17
ATONED ILLINOIS DERBY HAW 0405 9.00 0.9858 1.1003 0.99997 53.98 54.00 53.99 53.40 55.16 54.01 108.0 49.98 49.41 73.68 97.84 109.89 121.92 121.72 24.16 24.07
ATONED COOLMORE LEXINGTON S KEE 0419 8.50 1.0485 1.0412 0.99965 55.84 52.73 54.28 56.08 55.37 49.62 105.5 52.92 47.04 71.96 97.29 110.08 122.94 122.94 25.33 25.65
BARRIER REEF WHIRLAWAY S AQUI 0202 8.50 1.0057 1.0828 0.99994 54.25 53.40 53.82 54.06 54.60 52.55 106.8 50.79 48.79 73.36 97.97 110.29 122.62 122.42 24.61 24.65
BARRIER REEF TRANSYLVANIA S KEE 0404 8.50 0.9699 1.1243 0.99993 52.61 52.91 52.76 51.57 54.79 53.21 105.8 49.72 51.08 75.69 100.05 112.15 124.22 124.22 24.36 24.17
BEHINDATTHEBAR COOLMORE LEXINGTON S KEE 0419 8.50 0.9953 1.0822 0.99992 55.55 54.69 55.12 55.14 56.30 53.83 109.4 50.77 48.03 71.90 95.74 107.65 119.55 119.55 23.84 23.81
BIG BROWN ALW GP 0305 8.00 1.0734 1.0101 0.99996 56.73 53.95 55.34 58.19 54.06 51.16 107.9 52.58 45.33 70.05 95.40 108.25 121.22 121.22 25.35 25.82
BIG BROWN FLORIDA DERBY GP 0329 9.00 1.0579 1.0233 0.99998 56.57 54.34 55.46 57.64 54.54 52.11 108.7 52.04 45.73 70.22 95.20 107.83 120.54 120.54 24.98 25.35
BIG GLEN WEBN S TP 0202 8.00 0.9974 1.0911 0.99993 54.05 53.30 53.68 53.71 54.69 52.56 106.6 50.70 49.16 73.66 98.14 110.37 122.60 121.80 24.48 24.46
BIG GLEN RUSHAWAY S TP 0322 8.50 0.9887 1.0997 1.00000 53.57 53.85 53.71 53.32 54.06 54.14 107.7 49.74 49.54 73.97 98.31 110.45 122.58 121.78 24.34 24.27
BIG GLEN COOLMORE LEXINGTON S KEE 0419 8.50 1.0411 1.0416 0.99978 56.34 53.75 55.04 56.64 55.78 51.15 107.5 52.41 46.60 71.07 95.88 108.39 120.96 120.96 24.82 25.07
BIG TRUCK SAM F. DAVIS S TAM 0216 8.50 1.0105 1.0781 1.00000 54.19 53.70 53.94 54.38 53.83 53.21 107.4 50.46 48.58 73.17 97.86 110.23 122.61 121.61 24.69 24.75
BIG TRUCK TAMPA BAY DERBY TAM 0315 8.50 1.0329 1.0556 0.99977 55.29 52.99 54.14 55.27 55.31 50.69 106.0 52.16 47.59 72.34 97.37 109.97 122.61 121.61 25.03 25.24
BIG TRUCK BLUE GRASS S KEE 0412 9.00 0.9964 1.0973 0.99996 53.36 53.01 53.18 52.96 54.16 52.66 106.0 50.34 49.80 74.59 99.36 111.73 124.10 124.10 24.76 24.74
BLACKBERRY ROAD LECOMTE S FG 0112 8.00 0.9900 1.0989 0.99995 53.37 54.25 53.81 53.48 53.15 55.14 108.5 49.18 49.53 74.00 98.38 110.55 122.70 122.90 24.38 24.32
BLACKBERRY ROAD RISEN STAR S FG 0209 8.50 0.9780 1.1152 0.99991 52.38 53.90 53.14 52.38 52.38 55.42 107.8 48.59 50.59 75.21 99.65 111.81 123.95 124.15 24.44 24.30
BLACKBERRY ROAD LOUISIANA DERBY FG 0308 8.50 1.0177 1.0768 1.00000 53.52 53.15 53.34 54.06 52.51 52.78 106.3 50.35 48.93 73.92 99.06 111.67 124.31 124.51 25.14 25.26
BLACKBERRY ROAD ARKANSAS DERBY OP 0412 9.00 1.0048 1.0879 0.99992 53.91 52.96 53.43 53.59 54.50 52.01 105.9 50.91 49.30 74.10 98.93 111.36 123.80 123.40 24.84 24.87
BOB BLACK JACK SAN FELIPE S SA 0315 8.50 0.9910 1.0907 0.99997 54.25 55.08 54.66 54.32 54.09 55.91 110.2 49.23 48.68 72.75 96.75 108.73 120.69 122.09 24.00 23.94
BOB BLACK JACK SANTA ANITA DERBY SA 0405 9.00 1.0115 1.0686 1.00000 55.24 54.82 55.03 55.49 54.75 54.40 109.6 50.40 47.59 71.72 95.94 108.08 120.24 121.64 24.22 24.29
BOSS LAFITTE TRANSYLVANIA S KEE 0404 8.50 0.9427 1.1426 1.00000 52.67 54.55 53.61 51.48 55.20 56.42 109.1 48.28 51.30 75.19 98.61 110.19 121.70 121.70 23.42 23.09
CANNONBALL LANE'S END S TP 0322 9.00 1.0579 1.0395 0.99994 54.63 52.21 53.42 55.53 52.95 49.80 104.4 52.32 47.47 72.90 98.83 111.94 125.14 124.34 25.93 26.31
CAVE'S VALLEY WHIRLAWAY S AQUI 0202 8.50 1.0206 1.0778 1.00000 53.29 52.52 52.90 53.70 52.50 51.75 105.0 50.75 49.23 74.46 99.88 112.63 125.42 125.22 25.41 25.54
CAVE'S VALLEY PRIVATE TERMS S LRL 0322 8.00 1.0432 1.0519 0.99999 54.35 52.70 53.53 55.17 52.80 51.05 107.8 51.57 47.86 73.06 98.63 111.52 124.48 120.68 25.57 25.85
CHITOZ LANE'S END S TP 0322 9.00 1.0554 1.0403 1.00000 54.49 52.74 53.61 55.74 52.16 50.99 105.5 51.65 47.40 72.71 98.50 111.54 124.66 123.86 25.79 26.16
COAST GUARD ROBERT B. LEWIS S SA 0202 8.50 0.9824 1.0910 0.99998 55.39 55.61 55.50 54.81 56.56 55.82 111.2 49.81 48.14 71.70 95.11 106.78 118.43 119.83 23.42 23.31
COAST GUARD EL CAMINO REAL DERBY BM 0308 8.50 1.0436 1.0485 0.99944 55.46 52.14 53.80 55.27 55.83 48.83 104.3 53.17 47.52 72.54 97.95 110.76 123.63 125.03 25.40 25.68
COAST GUARD SANTA ANITA DERBY SA 0405 9.00 1.0189 1.0622 1.00000 55.31 54.64 54.98 55.70 54.54 53.98 109.3 50.60 47.39 71.63 96.03 108.28 120.55 121.95 24.40 24.52
COLONEL JOHN SHAM S SA 0301 9.00 0.9723 1.1137 1.00000 53.37 54.34 53.85 52.80 54.54 55.31 108.7 49.10 50.01 74.17 98.11 110.02 121.89 123.29 23.94 23.77
COLONEL JOHN SANTA ANITA DERBY SA 0405 9.00 0.9949 1.0854 0.99992 54.47 55.25 54.86 54.85 53.71 56.04 110.5 49.29 48.34 72.37 96.35 108.32 120.29 121.69 23.98 23.95
COOL COAL MAN GP ALW GP 0126 9.00 1.0729 1.0198 0.99988 55.81 52.65 54.23 56.82 53.89 49.50 105.3 53.00 46.32 71.56 97.44 110.56 123.80 123.80 25.88 26.36
COOL COAL MAN FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S GP 0224 9.00 1.0262 1.0578 0.99983 55.65 53.73 54.69 55.56 55.83 51.81 107.5 51.77 47.39 71.84 96.51 108.91 121.35 121.35 24.67 24.84
COOL COAL MAN BLUE GRASS S KEE 0412 9.00 1.0091 1.0837 0.99988 53.97 52.84 53.41 53.57 54.79 51.71 105.7 51.06 49.12 73.95 98.86 111.33 123.82 123.82 24.91 24.97
COSMIC MSW GP 0224 9.00 1.0217 1.0683 0.99998 54.41 53.39 53.90 54.69 53.86 52.37 106.8 50.94 48.24 72.99 97.93 110.45 123.01 123.01 24.94 25.08
COUNTRY STAR ASHLAND S KEE 0405 8.50 0.9855 1.1027 0.99996 53.68 53.66 53.67 53.09 54.89 53.64 107.3 50.03 49.67 74.07 98.34 110.45 122.53 122.53 24.28 24.19
COURT VISION FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S GP 0224 9.00 0.9982 1.0895 0.99982 54.48 53.41 53.95 53.79 55.83 52.33 106.8 51.02 49.03 73.50 97.94 110.16 122.38 122.38 24.45 24.44
COURT VISION WOOD MEMORIAL S AQU 0405 9.00 1.0117 1.0834 0.99970 54.06 52.31 53.18 53.53 55.01 50.55 104.6 51.68 49.27 74.25 99.33 111.90 124.49 123.49 25.08 25.16
COWBOY CAL BLUE GRASS S KEE 0412 9.00 0.9933 1.0916 0.99998 54.25 54.14 54.19 53.88 55.00 54.03 108.3 50.09 48.93 73.20 97.41 109.50 121.58 121.58 24.21 24.17
DENIS OF CORK SOUTHWEST S OP 0218 8.00 1.0014 1.0844 0.99988 54.66 53.44 54.05 54.42 55.07 52.22 106.9 51.13 48.67 73.05 97.44 109.64 121.84 121.44 24.39 24.40
DENIS OF CORK ILLINOIS DERBY HAW 0405 9.00 0.9900 1.0983 0.99993 53.91 53.61 53.76 53.29 55.16 53.31 107.2 50.29 49.47 73.90 98.25 110.40 122.54 122.34 24.35 24.29
DOUBLE OR NOTHING PRIVATE TERMS S LRL 0322 8.00 1.0464 1.0476 0.99993 54.70 52.54 53.62 55.38 53.40 50.38 107.8 52.04 47.60 72.76 98.32 111.21 124.17 120.37 25.56 25.86
EIGHT BELLES HONEYBEE S OP 0316 8.50 0.9957 1.0904 0.99999 54.10 54.01 54.05 53.91 54.47 53.92 108.0 50.09 48.96 73.32 97.64 109.78 121.93 121.53 24.32 24.29
EIGHT BELLES FANTASY S OP 0406 8.50 0.9934 1.0888 0.99997 54.63 54.35 54.49 54.27 55.32 54.08 108.7 50.25 48.62 72.74 96.81 108.82 120.83 120.43 24.06 24.02
EL GATO MALO SAN RAFAEL S SA 0112 8.00 1.0142 1.0521 0.99990 57.52 55.93 56.72 57.58 57.41 54.33 111.9 51.40 45.99 69.39 92.90 104.68 116.49 117.89 23.51 23.59
EL GATO MALO SHAM S SA 0301 9.00 0.9660 1.1206 0.99998 53.00 54.47 53.73 52.50 54.02 55.94 108.9 48.67 50.37 74.53 98.40 110.26 122.08 123.48 23.88 23.67
EL GATO MALO SANTA ANITA DERBY SA 0405 9.00 0.9979 1.0849 0.99999 54.68 54.43 54.56 54.48 55.06 54.19 108.9 50.21 48.49 72.67 96.84 108.92 120.99 122.39 24.17 24.15
ELYSIUM FIRLDS FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S GP 0224 9.00 1.0351 1.0495 0.99979 55.86 53.58 54.72 55.88 55.83 51.30 107.2 52.11 47.06 71.61 96.45 108.96 121.51 121.51 24.84 25.06
ELYSIUM FIRLDS FLORIDA DERBY GP 0329 9.00 1.1320 0.9819 0.99910 55.64 49.01 52.32 56.77 53.51 42.37 98.0 56.78 46.08 72.92 100.99 115.40 130.01 130.01 28.07 29.02
ETCHED UAE 2000 GUINEAS NAD 0214 7.95 1.0117 1.0692 0.99989 55.08 54.81 54.94 55.35 54.54 54.55 109.6 50.25 47.68 71.85 96.13 108.29 120.48   24.27 24.35
EZ DREAMER RATTLESNAKE S TUP 0120 8.00 1.0592 1.0265 0.99985 56.25 53.32 54.78 57.07 54.71 50.38 106.6 52.77 46.16 70.92 96.18 108.97 121.83 122.83 25.26 25.65
FIERCE WIND SAM F. DAVIS S TAM 0216 8.50 1.0173 1.0711 0.99999 54.40 53.64 54.02 54.69 53.83 52.88 107.3 50.69 48.27 72.91 97.70 110.14 122.60 121.60 24.79 24.90
FIERCE WIND FLORIDA DERBY GP 0329 9.00 1.1315 0.9833 0.99968 55.07 49.45 52.26 56.88 51.65 43.82 98.9 55.68 46.19 73.08 101.19 115.62 130.26 130.26 28.12 29.07
GAYEGO SAN FELIPE S SA 0315 8.50 0.9857 1.0948 0.99997 54.25 55.25 54.75 54.22 54.30 56.25 110.5 49.09 48.78 72.74 96.59 108.49 120.36 121.76 23.85 23.76
GAYEGO ARKANSAS DERBY OP 0412 9.00 1.0520 1.0349 0.99995 55.77 53.54 54.66 56.55 54.30 51.30 107.1 52.08 46.58 71.36 96.58 109.32 122.14 121.74 25.22 25.55
GEORGIE BOY SAN FELIPE S SA 0315 8.50 0.9784 1.1012 0.99994 54.11 55.48 54.79 54.01 54.30 56.85 111.0 48.75 49.00 72.87 96.55 108.35 120.11 121.51 23.69 23.56
GIANT MOON COUNT FLEET S AQUI 0105 8.32 1.0036 1.0795 0.99991 54.93 53.93 54.43 54.56 55.67 52.93 107.9 50.91 48.28 72.52 96.79 108.94 121.09 120.89 24.27 24.29
GIANT MOON WOOD MEMORIAL S AQU 0405 9.00 1.0932 1.0090 0.99998 54.62 52.07 53.34 56.96 50.39 49.51 104.1 52.47 46.47 72.39 99.14 112.77 126.53 125.53 26.75 27.39
GOLD COYOTE JIM'S ORBIT S HOU 0216 8.00 1.0546 1.0442 0.99961 54.70 51.34 53.02 55.00 54.09 47.99 102.7 53.26 47.77 73.25 99.22 112.34 125.54 123.94 25.96 26.32
GOLDEN SPIKES FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S GP 0224 9.00 1.0672 1.0250 0.99969 55.93 52.45 54.19 56.41 55.00 48.96 104.9 53.32 46.51 71.69 97.45 110.51 123.66 123.66 25.76 26.20
GOLDEN SPIKES ILLINOIS DERBY HAW 0405 9.00 1.0025 1.0837 1.00000 54.26 54.06 54.16 54.22 54.33 53.87 108.1 50.19 48.67 73.08 97.52 109.74 121.96 121.76 24.43 24.45
GOLDEN YANK REBEL S OP 0315 8.50 1.0263 1.0667 0.99984 54.50 52.60 53.55 54.58 54.36 50.70 105.2 51.81 48.37 73.33 98.52 111.18 123.88 123.48 25.19 25.36
GOLDEN YANK ARKANSAS DERBY OP 0412 9.00 1.0224 1.0715 0.99996 54.12 52.87 53.49 54.35 53.68 51.62 105.7 51.20 48.65 73.64 98.83 111.48 124.16 123.76 25.18 25.33
HALO NAJIB DARLEY OBS CHAMPIONSHIP OTC 0211 8.50 1.0179 1.0810 1.00000 53.02 52.53 52.78 53.47 52.16 52.03 105.1 50.45 49.41 74.66 100.06 112.81 125.58 123.98 25.40 25.52
HALO NAJIB FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S GP 0224 9.00 1.0236 1.0686 0.99992 54.48 52.95 53.72 54.54 54.37 51.42 105.9 51.45 48.40 73.30 98.40 111.01 123.65 123.65 25.10 25.25
HALO NAJIB LANE'S END S TP 0322 9.00 1.0369 1.0548 1.00000 54.45 53.32 53.89 55.37 52.75 52.18 106.6 51.08 47.76 72.72 97.99 110.72 123.50 122.70 25.27 25.51
HALO NAJIB BLUE GRASS S KEE 0412 9.00 0.9630 1.1264 0.99995 53.01 53.66 53.34 51.89 55.31 54.30 107.3 49.41 50.84 75.12 99.11 111.01 122.86 122.86 23.98 23.76
HEY BYRN ALW GP 0302 9.00 0.9962 1.0987 0.99974 53.52 52.41 52.96 52.60 55.46 51.29 104.8 51.07 49.94 74.79 99.61 112.01 124.40 124.40 24.82 24.80
HARLEM ROCKER WITHERS S AQU 0426 8.00 1.0110 1.0606 0.99992 56.63 55.31 55.97 56.47 56.95 54.00 110.6 51.20 46.70 70.36 94.11 106.02 117.93 116.93 23.75 23.82
HEY BYRN FLORIDA DERBY GP 0329 9.00 1.0562 1.0354 0.99969 55.79 52.60 54.19 56.11 55.16 49.41 105.2 53.03 46.91 71.98 97.54 110.46 123.47 123.47 25.56 25.92
HEY BYRN HOLY BULL S GP 0412 9.50 0.9835 1.1101 1.00000 52.81 53.25 53.03 52.39 53.65 53.70 106.5 49.58 50.38 75.06 99.61 111.84 124.06 124.06 24.55 24.45
INDIAN SUN SAN RAFAEL S SA 0112 8.00 1.0095 1.0599 0.99937 57.49 54.73 56.11 56.79 58.79 51.97 109.5 52.50 46.52 70.05 93.66 105.48 117.32 118.72 23.61 23.66
INDIAN SUN ROBERT B. LEWIS S SA 0202 8.50 0.9733 1.1032 1.00000 54.69 55.47 55.08 54.08 55.93 56.25 110.9 49.32 48.89 72.54 95.98 107.64 119.27 120.67 23.44 23.28
INDIAN SUN SAN FELIPE S SA 0315 8.50 0.9512 1.1312 0.99999 53.39 54.78 54.08 52.26 55.63 56.16 109.6 48.71 50.57 74.36 97.76 109.35 120.88 122.28 23.40 23.12
INDIAN SUN ARKANSAS DERBY OP 0412 9.00 1.0224 1.0671 0.99977 54.96 53.03 54.00 54.72 55.43 51.10 106.1 51.80 48.15 72.89 97.82 110.34 122.88 122.48 24.93 25.07
ISABULL SMARTY JONES S OP 0121 8.00 1.0620 1.0320 0.99999 54.97 52.87 53.92 56.28 52.55 50.77 105.7 52.00 46.92 72.17 97.96 111.01 124.15 123.75 25.79 26.19
ISABULL REBEL S OP 0315 8.50 1.0442 1.0492 0.99992 54.82 52.68 53.75 55.44 53.67 50.54 105.4 52.01 47.62 72.72 98.20 111.06 123.97 123.57 25.48 25.77
ISABULL ARKANSAS DERBY OP 0412 9.00 1.0664 1.0280 0.99982 55.49 52.36 53.92 56.22 54.09 49.22 104.7 53.00 46.78 72.08 97.96 111.07 124.28 123.88 25.88 26.32
J BE K LOUISIANA DERBY FG 0308 8.50 1.0656 1.0407 0.99996 53.66 51.13 52.40 54.79 51.55 48.61 102.3 52.45 48.11 74.11 100.69 114.16 127.72 127.92 26.58 27.03
J BE K WITHERS S AQU 0426 8.00 1.0297 1.0447 0.99967 57.06 54.43 55.75 56.90 57.39 51.80 108.9 52.40 46.20 70.14 94.32 106.48 118.68 117.68 24.18 24.36
KENTUCKY BEAR BLUE GRASS S KEE 0412 9.00 0.9786 1.1064 0.99997 53.90 54.14 54.02 53.16 55.41 54.37 108.3 49.77 49.61 73.77 97.76 109.70 121.61 121.61