Dosage: Pedigree & Performance
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Pace Parameters for 2009 Kentucky Derby Prep Races

Below is presented a variety of pace parameters for Derby contenders in 2009 prep races at a mile or more on dirt or synthetic surface.  In addition to the horse, race, track, date and distance, we have included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times.  These are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 10f (unadjusted), the predicted turn time in a 10f race (10fTT) and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in a 10f race (10fLQ).  Following 10f is Adj10f which is the projected 10f time adjusted for the differences in track speed between the track on which the prep race was run and Churchill Downs.  The various pace parameters are described here. 

The historical guideline figures for all Derby winners since 1984 plus Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid are displayed in the following table.  The Adj10f number is missing because the comparative data is unavailable for the races used in developing the guideline figures.  The significance of Adj10f is left to the reader.

3Fr TE %E 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
>=51.56 >=107.3 <=52.08 <=122.34 <=24.94 <=25.33

Cells colored green meet or exceed the guideline figures.  Cells colored red fail to meet the guideline figures.  Races for each horse are listed in chronological order with the latest race last. 
 
HORSE RACE TRK DATE DIST SLOPE INT CC EP SP AP 1FR 2FR 3FR TE %E 4F 6F 8F 9F 10F ADJ10F 10FTT 10FLQ
ADVICE SUNLAND DERBY SUN 0329 9.00 1.0584 1.0338 0.99990 55.50 52.82 54.16 56.36 53.93 50.13 105.6 52.56 46.88 72.01 97.64 110.61 123.65 124.25 25.63 26.01
ADVICE COOLMORE LEXINGTON S KEE 0418 8.50 0.9874 1.0974 0.99990 53.69 54.81 54.25 53.92 53.25 55.93 109.6 48.99 49.19 73.41 97.52 109.55 121.56 121.56 24.11 24.04
AL KHALI ALW GP 0306 9.00 1.0232 1.0677 0.99982 54.66 52.88 53.77 54.44 55.10 51.10 105.8 51.67 48.28 73.11 98.13 110.70 123.30 123.30 25.02 25.17
AL KHALI ILLINOIS DERBY HAW 0404 9.00 1.0553 1.0439 0.99982 54.57 51.79 53.18 55.04 53.65 49.00 103.60 52.67 47.77 73.29 99.28 112.42 125.64 125.44 25.99 26.36
ALMA D'ORO MDN GP 0115 8.00 1.0618 1.0339 0.99996 54.85 52.42 53.64 55.93 52.80 50.00 104.8 52.34 47.12 72.48 98.38 111.48 124.68 124.68 25.90 26.30
ALMA D'ORO ALW GP 0219 9.00 1.0689 1.0280 0.99975 55.31 51.94 53.62 55.93 54.09 48.57 103.9 53.23 46.94 72.40 98.47 111.68 124.99 124.99 26.07 26.52
AMERICAN DANCE ALW GP 0219 9.00 1.0730 1.0276 0.99980 54.92 51.55 53.24 55.72 53.38 48.18 103.1 53.27 47.16 72.87 99.22 112.59 126.06 126.06 26.35 26.84
ATOMIC RAIN ALW GP 0108 9.00 1.0525 1.0403 0.99996 55.00 52.86 53.93 55.83 53.42 50.71 105.7 52.03 47.20 72.32 97.89 110.81 123.80 123.80 25.57 25.91
ATOMIC RAIN SAM F. DAVIS S TAM 0214 8.50 1.0550 1.0454 0.99986 54.33 51.64 52.99 54.94 53.15 48.96 103.3 52.59 47.93 73.51 99.58 112.76 126.01 125.01 26.07 26.43
ATOMIC RAIN ALW GP 0306 9.00 1.0232 1.0676 0.99980 54.70 52.86 53.78 54.44 55.20 51.03 105.7 51.75 48.27 73.09 98.11 110.67 123.27 123.27 25.02 25.16
ATOMIC RAIN WOOD MEMORIAL AQU 0404 9.00 1.0163 1.0720 0.99996 54.57 53.53 54.05 54.58 54.54 52.49 107.1 50.95 48.29 72.92 97.69 110.11 122.55 121.55 24.76 24.87
AU MOON LECOMTE S FG 0110 8.00 1.0176 1.0739 1.00000 53.95 53.42 53.69 54.32 53.22 52.89 106.8 50.52 48.60 73.42 98.39 110.92 123.47 123.67 24.97 25.08
AU MOON RISEN STAR S FG 0207 8.50 1.0423 1.0624 0.99986 52.65 52.36 52.50 54.20 49.80 52.07 104.7 50.29 48.97 74.73 100.86 114.03 127.27 127.47 26.13 26.41
BEAR'S ROCKET HOLY BULL S GP 0131 9.00 1.0450 1.0494 0.99997 54.55 52.69 53.62 55.23 53.22 50.84 105.4 51.75 47.71 72.88 98.44 111.34 124.29 124.29 25.56 25.85
BEAR'S ROCKET TAMPA BAY DERBY TAM 0314 8.50 1.0256 1.0649 0.99986 54.70 52.91 53.80 54.67 54.75 51.12 105.8 51.70 48.13 72.95 97.99 110.57 123.19 122.19 25.04 25.20
BEETHOVEN HOLY BULL S GP 0131 9.00 1.0399 1.0562 0.99988 54.41 52.30 53.35 54.71 53.83 50.19 104.6 52.02 48.12 73.35 98.93 111.83 124.77 124.77 25.58 25.84
BEETHOVEN FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S GP 0228 8.00 0.9789 1.1000 0.99993 54.90 54.55 54.72 54.19 56.25 54.20 109.1 50.32 48.91 72.73 96.39 108.17 119.92 119.92 23.66 23.53
BITTEL ROAD ROBERT B. LEWIS S SA 0207 8.50 1.0087 1.0732 0.99993 54.65 55.10 54.87 55.32 53.40 55.54 110.2 49.59 47.91 72.12 96.41 108.57 120.74 122.14 24.28 24.33
BITTEL ROAD LANE'S END S TP 0321 9.00 0.9972 1.0948 0.99981 53.87 52.87 53.37 53.14 55.28 51.88 105.7 50.96 49.57 74.28 98.96 111.29 123.62 122.82 24.68 24.66
BROTHER KEITH SAN RAFAEL S SA 0117 8.00 0.9952 1.0879 0.99983 54.93 53.75 54.34 54.37 55.99 52.58 107.5 51.10 48.65 72.84 96.98 109.04 121.10 122.50 24.15 24.12
BROTHER KEITH ROBERT B. LEWIS S SA 0207 8.50 1.0449 1.0434 0.99999 55.00 53.93 54.46 56.17 52.80 52.85 107.9 50.97 47.04 71.86 97.06 109.77 122.55 123.95 25.20 25.49
CAPE ROYALE OBS SALE CHAMPIONSHIP S OTC 0216 8.50 1.0807 1.0078 0.99998 56.25 53.43 54.84 57.89 53.22 50.61 106.9 52.62 45.54 70.59 96.33 109.41 122.60 121.00 25.74 26.27
CAPT. CANDYMAN CAN FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S GP 0228 8.00 1.0810 1.0072 0.99971 56.77 52.75 54.76 57.82 54.79 48.73 105.5 53.81 45.50 70.53 96.26 109.33 122.52 122.52 25.73 26.26
CAPTAIN CHEROKEE MDN FG 0117 8.00 1.0286 1.0670 0.99980 53.31 53.79 53.55 54.56 50.96 54.27 107.6 49.55 48.56 73.70 99.07 111.83 124.63 124.83 25.38 25.56
CAPTAIN CHEROKEE ALW FG 0214 8.50 1.0755 1.0318 0.99999 53.51 51.50 52.50 55.35 50.19 49.49 103.0 51.95 47.79 73.92 100.72 114.32 128.04 128.24 26.80 27.32
CAPTAIN CHEROKEE REBEL S OP 0314 8.50 1.0698 1.0336 0.99991 54.33 51.40 52.87 55.49 52.24 48.48 102.8 52.85 47.61 73.46 99.94 113.36 126.88 126.48 26.47 26.95
CAPTAIN CHEROKEE ARKANSAS DERBY OP 0411 9.00 1.0646 1.0320 0.99985 55.14 52.14 53.64 55.98 53.60 49.14 104.3 52.87 47.10 72.52 98.51 111.67 124.92 124.52 25.99 26.42
CHARITABLE MAN TOYOTA BLUE GRASS S KEE 0411 9.00 0.9819 1.1057 0.99985 53.89 53.58 53.74 52.91 55.88 53.26 107.2 50.27 49.75 74.08 98.27 110.31 122.34 122.34 24.18 24.07
CHOCOLATE CANDY CALIFORNIA DERBY GG 0117 8.00 0.9895 1.0944 0.99977 54.68 53.66 54.17 53.75 56.56 52.64 107.3 50.96 48.99 73.17 97.27 109.29 121.30 120.90 24.10 24.03
CHOCOLATE CANDY EL CAMINO REAL DERBY GG 0214 9.00 0.9867 1.0987 0.99962 54.55 53.46 54.00 53.27 57.20 52.38 106.9 51.02 49.29 73.53 97.66 109.70 121.72 121.32 24.13 24.05
CHOCOLATE CANDY SANTA ANITA DERBY SA 0404 9.00 0.9782 1.1042 0.99998 54.19 54.50 54.35 53.50 55.61 54.82 109.0 49.72 49.33 73.35 97.19 109.05 120.89 122.29 23.84 23.71
CLIFFY'S FUTURE OCl AQUI 0122 8.32 1.0033 1.0793 0.99984 55.13 53.82 54.47 54.70 55.94 52.52 107.6 51.23 48.24 72.45 96.69 108.82 120.96 120.76 24.24 24.26
CLIFFY'S FUTURE SAM F. DAVIS S TAM 0214 8.50 1.0147 1.0814 0.99937 54.19 51.65 52.92 53.36 55.79 49.12 103.3 52.46 49.24 74.30 99.49 112.12 124.77 123.77 25.19 25.28
CLIFFY'S FUTURE RUSHAWAY S TP 0321 8.50 0.9992 1.0883 0.99996 54.17 53.63 53.90 53.87 54.75 53.09 107.3 50.48 48.97 73.42 97.88 110.10 122.33 121.53 24.45 24.45
CLIFFY'S FUTURE TOYOTA BLUE GRASS S KEE 0411 9.00 0.9866 1.1103 0.99993 52.80 52.62 52.71 52.09 54.23 52.43 105.2 50.19 50.61 75.51 100.29 112.65 124.98 124.98 24.78 24.70
CONSERVATIVE ALW GP 0319 8.00 1.0114 1.0792 0.99999 53.97 53.37 53.67 54.17 53.60 52.76 106.7 50.58 48.77 73.50 98.32 110.76 123.22 123.22 24.82 24.89
CONSERVATIVE COOLMORE LEXINGTON S KEE 0418 8.50 1.0006 1.0853 0.99997 54.04 54.42 54.23 54.34 53.45 54.79 108.8 49.67 48.73 73.11 97.49 109.68 121.88 121.88 24.38 24.39
DANGER TO SOCIETY ALW GP 0108 9.00 1.0261 1.0649 0.99993 54.55 53.05 53.80 54.67 54.30 51.56 106.1 51.41 48.16 73.01 98.08 110.69 123.32 123.32 25.07 25.24
DANGER TO SOCIETY ALW GP 0108 9.00 1.0261 1.0649 0.99993 54.55 53.05 53.80 54.67 54.30 51.56 106.1 51.41 48.16 73.01 98.08 110.69 123.32 123.32 25.07 25.24
DANGER TO SOCIETY HOLY BULL S GP 0131 9.00 1.0507 1.0502 0.99988 54.13 51.71 52.92 54.65 53.12 49.29 103.4 52.35 48.17 73.75 99.78 112.92 126.14 126.14 26.03 26.36
DANGER TO SOCIETY ARKANSAS DERBY OP 0411 9.00 1.0975 1.0033 0.99991 55.42 51.63 53.52 57.07 52.40 47.83 103.3 53.65 46.14 72.00 98.73 112.36 126.13 125.73 26.73 27.40
DESERT PARTY UAE 2000 GUINEAS NAD 0212 7.95 1.0169 1.0701 0.99995 54.70 53.54 54.12 54.77 54.54 52.38 107.1 51.07 48.12 72.68 97.38 109.77 122.18 N/A  24.70 24.80
DESERT PARTY UAE DERBY NAD 0328 9.00 1.0111 1.0774 0.99999 54.02 53.91 53.97 54.43 53.22 53.80 107.8 50.12 48.54 73.14 97.84 110.21 122.60 N/A 24.69 24.76
DUMAR OCl FG 0117 8.18 1.0351 1.0619 0.99989 53.42 53.31 53.36 54.69 51.06 53.19 106.6 50.11 48.43 73.69 99.25 112.12 125.03 125.23 25.56 25.79
DUMAR RISEN STAR S FG 0207 8.50 1.0546 1.0505 0.99998 53.16 51.90 52.53 54.62 50.48 50.64 103.8 51.21 48.47 74.33 100.67 113.99 127.39 127.59 26.35 26.71
DUMAR BORDERLAND DERBY SUN 0228 8.50 1.0154 1.0761 0.99870 55.12 51.70 53.41 53.75 57.87 48.28 103.4 53.31 48.69 73.49 98.42 110.93 123.45 124.05 24.93 25.03
DUMAR SUNLAND DERBY SUN 0329 9.00 1.0473 1.0445 0.99988 55.29 52.86 54.07 55.86 54.23 50.44 105.7 52.30 47.32 72.35 97.79 110.63 123.53 124.13 25.44 25.74
DUNKIRK ALW GP 0219 9.00 1.0355 1.0527 0.99999 55.03 53.55 54.29 55.61 53.89 52.08 107.1 51.38 47.44 72.19 97.24 109.86 122.52 122.52 25.05 25.28
DUNKIRK FLORIDA DERBY GP 0328 9.00 0.9969 1.0804 0.99989 55.59 54.79 55.19 55.02 56.72 53.99 109.6 50.73 47.93 71.80 95.65 107.57 119.48 119.48 23.85 23.83
FIERCE THUNDER MDN FG 0117 8.00 1.0219 1.0751 0.99990 53.11 53.38 53.25 54.05 51.35 53.66 106.8 49.73 49.02 74.18 99.53 112.26 125.02 125.22 25.35 25.49
FIERCE THUNDER MDN FG 0214 8.50 1.0443 1.0575 0.99999 53.51 51.91 52.71 54.32 51.96 50.30 103.8 51.55 48.55 74.15 100.14 113.24 126.42 126.62 25.99 26.28
FLAT OUT SMARTY JONES S OP 0119 8.00 1.0425 1.0538 0.99999 54.16 52.60 53.38 55.03 52.53 51.05 105.2 51.48 48.02 73.28 98.90 111.82 124.80 124.40 25.63 25.90
FLAT OUT SOUTHWEST S OP 0216 8.00 1.0216 1.0694 0.99998 54.37 53.22 53.79 54.80 53.57 52.08 106.4 51.10 48.35 73.17 98.17 110.72 123.30 122.90 25.00 25.14
FLAT OUT ARKANSAS DERBY OP 0411 9.00 1.0646 1.0263 1.00000 55.42 53.27 54.35 56.85 52.80 51.12 106.5 52.04 46.48 71.57 97.21 110.20 123.28 122.88 25.64 26.07
FLYING PEGASUS RISEN STAR S FG 0207 8.50 1.0454 1.0524 0.99994 53.67 52.95 53.31 55.09 51.05 52.23 105.9 50.68 48.06 73.43 99.19 112.19 125.26 125.46 25.76 26.06
FLYING PEGASUS LOUISIANA DERBY FG 0314 8.50 1.0250 1.0719 0.99991 53.83 52.29 53.06 53.91 53.65 50.75 104.6 51.46 48.86 74.04 99.43 112.19 124.99 125.19 25.39 25.55
FLYING PRIVATE LANE'S END S TP 0321 9.00 0.9941 1.0912 0.99991 54.42 53.85 54.14 53.87 55.48 53.29 107.7 50.53 48.95 73.25 97.50 109.61 121.72 120.92 24.25 24.22
FLYING PRIVATE ARKANSAS DERBY OP 0411 9.00 1.0508 1.0405 0.99995 54.72 53.61 54.16 56.30 51.80 52.50 107.2 51.04 47.12 72.14 97.61 110.47 123.40 123.00 25.47 25.79
FREE COUNTRY ALW GP 0108 9.00 1.0493 1.0436 0.99999 54.79 52.97 53.88 55.72 53.02 51.15 105.9 51.74 47.35 72.46 97.99 110.88 123.84 123.84 25.53 25.85
FREE COUNTRY SAM F. DAVIS S TAM 0214 8.50 1.0304 1.0627 0.99996 54.36 52.86 53.61 54.73 53.65 51.36 105.7 51.43 48.21 73.21 98.47 111.17 123.92 122.92 25.26 25.45
FREE COUNTRY LOUISIANA DERBY FG 0314 8.50 1.0443 1.0592 0.99969 53.83 50.96 52.39 53.91 53.65 48.10 101.9 52.82 48.74 74.44 100.52 113.68 126.90 127.10 26.09 26.38
FREE COUNTRY ILLINOIS DERBY HAW 0404 9.00 1.0141 1.0802 0.99979 54.09 52.51 53.30 53.68 54.87 50.93 105.0 51.51 49.06 74.01 99.09 111.66 124.25 124.05 25.07 25.16
FRIESAN FIRE LECOMTE S FG 0110 8.00 0.9918 1.0944 0.99997 53.75 54.46 54.10 53.81 53.62 55.17 108.9 49.35 49.16 73.49 97.76 109.88 121.98 122.18 24.27 24.22
FRIESAN FIRE RISEN STAR S FG 0207 8.50 1.0421 1.0546 0.99982 53.53 53.36 53.44 55.15 50.57 53.18 106.7 50.17 48.09 73.37 99.02 111.95 124.95 125.15 25.65 25.92
FRIESAN FIRE LOUISIANA DERBY FG 0314 8.50 0.9936 1.0914 1.00000 54.03 54.42 54.22 54.01 54.06 54.80 108.8 49.66 48.93 73.20 97.42 109.52 121.61 121.81 24.22 24.18
GALLANT SON SANTA ANITA DERBY SA 0404 9.00 1.0006 1.0866 0.99993 54.36 53.68 54.02 53.91 55.29 52.99 107.4 50.62 48.86 73.31 97.76 109.99 122.22 123.62 24.45 24.46
GENERAL QUARTERS SAM F. DAVIS S TAM 0214 8.50 1.0264 1.0605 1.00000 54.78 53.91 54.34 55.36 53.65 53.04 107.8 50.81 47.70 72.31 97.15 109.64 122.16 121.16 24.84 25.01
GENERAL QUARTERS TAMPA BAY DERBY TAM 0314 8.50 1.0086 1.0818 1.00000 53.94 53.49 53.71 54.05 53.71 53.04 107.0 50.41 48.88 73.57 98.34 110.75 123.17 122.17 24.77 24.82
GENERAL QUARTERS TOYOTA BLUE GRASS S KEE 0411 9.00 0.9794 1.1034 1.00000 54.03 54.59 54.31 53.52 55.06 55.14 109.2 49.48 49.33 73.37 97.25