Dosage: Pedigree & Performance
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Pace Parameters for 2010 Kentucky Derby Prep Races

Below is presented a variety of pace parameters for Derby contenders in 2010 prep races at a mile or more on dirt or synthetic surface.  In addition to the horse, race, track, date and distance, we have included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times.  These are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 10f (unadjusted), the predicted turn time in a 10f race (10fTT) and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in a 10f race (10fLQ).  Following 10f is Adj10f which is the projected 10f time adjusted for the differences in track speed between the track on which the prep race was run and Churchill Downs.  The various pace parameters are described here. 

The historical guideline figures for all Derby winners since 1984 plus Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid are displayed in the following table.  The Adj10f number is missing because the comparative data is unavailable for the races used in developing the guideline figures.  The significance of Adj10f is left to the reader.

3Fr TE %E 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
>=51.56 >=107.3 <=52.08 <=122.34 <=24.94 <=25.33

Cells colored green meet or exceed the guideline figures.  Cells colored red fail to meet the guideline figures.  Races for each horse are listed in chronological order with the latest race last. 
 
HORSE RACE TRK DATE DIST SLOPE INT CC EP SP AP 1FR 2FR 3FR TE %E 4F 6F 8F 9F 10F ADJ10F 10FTT 10FLQ
AFLEET AGAIN WHIRLAWAY S AQUI 0206 8.50 1.0310 1.0731 0.99995 52.55 52.20 52.37 53.60 50.57 51.85 104.4 50.33 49.41 75.05 100.96 113.99 127.07 127.07 25.91 26.12
AFLEET AGAIN GOTHAM S (G3) AQUI 0306 8.50 1.0910 1.0207 0.99995 53.80 50.45 52.12 55.47 50.69 47.11 100.9 53.32 47.60 74.09 101.40 115.31 129.35 129.35 27.32 27.95
AIKENITE HOLY BULL S (G3) GP 0123 8.00 1.0793 1.0097 0.99985 56.47 52.95 54.71 57.68 54.16 49.43 105.9 53.32 45.66 70.72 96.47 109.55 122.74 122.34 25.75 26.27
AIKENITE FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S (G2) GP 0220 9.00 1.0197 1.0706 0.99999 54.28 53.48 53.88 54.60 53.65 52.68 107.0 50.73 48.36 73.12 98.05 110.56 123.10 122.70 24.93 25.05
ALPHIE'S BET SHAM S (G3) SA 0306 9.00 0.9979 1.0838 1.00000 54.61 54.74 54.67 54.67 54.47 54.88 109.5 49.87 48.37 72.49 96.60 108.64 120.69 122.69 24.10 24.09
AMERICAN LION ROBERT B. LEWIS S (G2) SA 0213 8.50 1.0285 1.0527 1.00000 55.62 54.58 55.10 56.17 54.54 53.54 109.2 50.93 46.98 71.28 95.82 108.16 120.54 122.54 24.54 24.72
AMERICAN LION SAN FELIPE S (G2) SA 0313 8.50 0.9985 1.0869 0.99987 53.81 54.95 54.38 54.34 52.80 56.08 109.9 48.97 48.76 73.09 97.41 109.56 121.72 123.72 24.32 24.31
AWESOME ACT GOTHAM S (G3) AQUI 0306 8.50 1.0397 1.0494 0.99999 55.01 53.45 54.23 55.79 53.57 51.88 106.9 51.46 47.35 72.17 97.33 110.01 122.75 122.75 25.16 25.41
BEST ACTOR ALW GP 0131 9.00 1.0413 1.0462 0.99987 55.55 53.33 54.44 55.88 54.91 51.11 106.7 52.06 47.11 71.86 96.96 109.62 122.33 121.93 25.10 25.36
BRAVO WHISKEY RISEN STAR S (G2) FG 0220 8.50 1.0332 1.0707 0.99998 53.03 51.68 52.35 53.55 52.01 50.32 103.4 51.29 49.29 74.94 100.88 113.94 127.04 126.44 25.94 26.16
CARACORTADO ROBERT B. LEWIS S (G2) SA 0213 8.50 1.0087 1.0694 1.00000 55.41 55.09 55.25 55.64 54.95 54.77 110.2 50.28 47.50 71.50 95.57 107.63 119.70 121.70 24.07 24.12
CARACORTADO SAN FELIPE S (G2) SA 0313 8.50 0.9729 1.1083 0.99990 53.68 55.48 54.58 53.62 53.80 57.29 111.0 48.36 49.44 73.35 97.04 108.82 120.57 122.57 23.69 23.53
CITRUS KID LECOMTE S (G3) FG 0123 8.18 1.0433 1.0534 0.99997 54.22 52.47 53.35 55.02 52.75 50.72 104.9 51.69 48.03 73.32 98.99 111.93 124.94 124.34 25.67 25.95
CODOY JOHN BATTAGLIA MEMORIAL S TP 0227 8.00 1.0463 1.0614 0.99966 53.40 50.56 51.98 53.57 53.07 47.73 101.1 52.82 49.13 75.09 101.46 114.77 128.14 126.74 26.37 26.68
CONNEMARA EL CAMINO REAL DERBY (G3) GG 0220 9.00 0.9625 1.1247 0.99954 53.73 53.27 53.50 51.87 57.62 52.81 106.5 50.45 50.60 74.76 98.61 110.45 122.23 121.43 23.85 23.62
CONVEYANCE SAN RAFAEL S (G3) SA 0116 8.00 0.9944 1.0864 0.99999 54.55 55.00 54.77 54.55 54.54 55.46 110.0 49.59 48.43 72.48 96.48 108.47 120.45 122.45 24.00 23.97
CONVEYANCE SOUTHWEST S (G3) OP 0220 8.00 1.0657 1.0220 0.99991 56.09 53.24 54.66 57.14 54.09 50.38 106.5 52.67 46.09 71.00 96.48 109.38 122.38 121.58 25.47 25.90
COOL BULLET SOUTHWEST S (G3) OP 0220 8.00 1.0888 1.0088 0.99960 55.88 51.41 53.65 56.93 53.89 46.95 102.8 54.36 46.16 71.78 98.19 111.62 125.19 124.39 26.40 27.00
DAVE IN DIXIE ROBERT B. LEWIS S (G2) SA 0213 8.50 0.9964 1.0819 0.99999 55.13 54.99 55.06 55.00 55.37 54.85 110.0 50.11 48.07 72.00 95.90 107.84 119.78 121.78 23.90 23.88
DAVE IN DIXIE SAN FELIPE S (G2) SA 0313 8.50 0.9662 1.1169 0.99998 53.47 54.99 54.23 53.00 54.40 56.51 110.0 48.61 49.96 73.92 97.60 109.36 121.08 123.08 23.68 23.48
DISCREETLY MINE RISEN STAR S (G2) FG 0220 8.50 1.0194 1.0728 1.00000 53.95 53.25 53.60 54.32 53.22 52.55 106.5 50.66 48.58 73.45 98.48 111.05 123.64 123.04 25.03 25.15
DROSSELMEYER ALW GP 0131 9.00 1.0340 1.0515 0.99997 55.41 53.82 54.61 55.88 54.50 52.23 107.6 51.49 47.20 71.79 96.66 109.18 121.75 121.35 24.87 25.09
DROSSELMEYER RISEN STAR S (G2) FG 0220 8.50 1.0131 1.0805 1.00000 53.54 53.25 53.39 53.91 52.82 52.95 106.5 50.27 49.02 73.93 98.94 111.48 124.04 123.44 25.01 25.10
DUBLIN SOUTHWEST S (G3) OP 0220 8.00 1.0144 1.0691 0.99991 55.24 53.82 54.53 55.25 55.22 52.39 107.6 51.34 47.84 72.19 96.65 108.91 121.20 120.40 24.46 24.55
DUBLIN REBEL S (G2) OP 0313 8.50 1.0119 1.0737 0.99993 54.81 53.75 54.28 54.73 54.97 52.68 107.5 50.99 48.18 72.63 97.16 109.46 121.78 120.98 24.54 24.61
ESKENDEREYA FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S (G2) GP 0220 8.50 1.0091 1.0740 1.00000 54.70 54.55 54.62 55.02 54.06 54.40 109.1 50.13 48.03 72.31 96.67 108.87 121.08 120.68 24.36 24.41
HOMEBOYKRIS HOLY BULL S (G3) GP 0123 8.00 1.0845 1.0039 0.99962 56.90 52.59 54.74 57.89 55.00 48.28 105.2 54.08 45.38 70.44 96.23 109.34 122.57 122.17 25.79 26.35
HOMEBOYKRIS ALW GP 0227 8.00 1.0015 1.0806 0.99997 54.55 55.00 54.78 54.81 54.02 55.46 110.0 49.59 48.26 72.43 96.62 108.72 120.81 120.41 24.19 24.19
INTERACTIF SAN FELIPE S (G2) SA 0313 8.50 0.9802 1.1011 0.99974 53.68 55.74 54.71 54.03 53.00 57.81 111.5 48.14 49.12 73.09 96.90 108.76 120.59 122.59 23.81 23.69
JACKSON BEND HOLY BULL S (G3) GP 0123 8.00 1.0635 1.0197 0.99984 56.75 53.62 55.18 57.62 55.10 50.48 107.2 52.94 45.71 70.35 95.53 108.28 121.12 120.72 25.18 25.59
JACKSON BEND FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S (G2) GP 0220 9.00 1.0231 1.0663 0.99997 54.56 53.45 54.00 54.81 54.06 52.34 106.9 51.04 48.12 72.85 97.79 110.31 122.86 122.46 24.93 25.08
KERA'S KITTEN WEBN S TP 0130 8.00 1.0626 1.0440 0.99989 53.66 50.92 52.29 54.55 51.96 48.18 101.8 52.71 48.27 74.27 100.83 114.27 127.80 126.40 26.56 26.98
KERA'S KITTEN JOHN BATTAGLIA MEMORIAL S TP 0227 8.50 1.1427 0.9858 0.99928 53.80 47.50 50.65 55.46 50.76 41.19 95.0 56.64 47.19 75.00 104.19 119.20 134.45 133.05 29.19 30.26
LAUS DEO COUNT FLEET S AQUI 0102 8.32 1.0271 1.0755 1.00000 52.80 52.07 52.44 53.44 51.56 51.34 104.1 50.72 49.42 74.94 100.71 113.66 126.65 126.65 25.76 25.94
LETSGETITONMOM RISEN STAR S (G2) FG 0220 8.50 0.9653 1.1294 1.00000 52.18 53.24 52.71 51.49 53.52 54.30 106.5 49.00 51.36 75.97 100.28 112.36 124.39 123.79 24.32 24.10
LOOKIN AT LUCKY REBEL S (G2) OP 0313 8.50 0.9991 1.0841 1.00000 54.54 54.42 54.48 54.52 54.57 54.30 108.8 50.13 48.48 72.70 96.91 109.01 121.11 120.31 24.21 24.20
LOST APTITUDE FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S (G2) GP 0220 9.00 1.1143 1.0070 0.99991 53.38 48.88 51.13 55.23 49.79 44.37 97.8 54.58 47.63 74.83 103.12 117.58 132.23 131.83 28.28 29.11
MIDDLE OF THE NITE SAM F. DAVIS S (G3) TAM 0213 8.50 1.0739 1.0285 0.99962 54.85 50.97 52.91 55.46 53.65 47.09 101.9 53.82 47.32 73.14 99.61 113.04 126.58 125.38 26.47 26.97
MISSION IMPAZIBLE SOUTHWEST S (G3) OP 0220 8.00 1.0691 1.0228 0.99992 55.67 52.78 54.22 56.82 53.48 49.90 105.6 52.71 46.40 71.58 97.35 110.41 123.58 122.78 25.77 26.23
NACHO FRIEND GOTHAM S (G3) AQUI 0306 8.50 1.0526 1.0392 0.99994 55.15 52.89 54.02 56.01 53.57 50.63 105.8 52.13 47.09 72.16 97.68 110.58 123.55 123.55 25.52 25.86
NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR MSW SA 0124 8.50 1.0152 1.0733 0.99998 54.11 54.00 54.06 54.69 53.00 53.90 108.0 50.10 48.36 72.99 97.75 110.17 122.61 124.61 24.76 24.85
NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR SHAM S (G3) SA 0306 9.00 1.0329 1.0554 1.00000 54.85 53.66 54.25 55.46 53.65 52.47 107.3 51.12 47.56 72.31 97.33 109.92 122.56 124.56 25.02 25.23
NOBLE'S PROMISE REBEL S (G2) OP 0313 8.50 1.0071 1.0761 0.99998 54.85 54.21 54.53 54.83 54.87 53.57 108.4 50.60 48.13 72.41 96.75 108.93 121.13 120.33 24.34 24.38
ODYSSEUS OCl TAM 0217 8.50 1.0446 1.0461 0.99997 55.03 53.13 54.08 55.74 53.65 51.23 106.3 51.77 47.32 72.27 97.61 110.39 123.23 122.03 25.34 25.62
ODYSSEUS TAMPA BAY DERBY (G3) TAM 0313 8.50 1.0530 1.0382 0.99995 55.24 53.00 54.12 56.06 53.65 50.77 106.0 52.11 47.00 72.03 97.51 110.39 123.34 122.14 25.48 25.83
PEPPI KNOWS WHIRLAWAY S AQUI 0206 8.50 1.0417 1.0615 1.00000 53.08 52.01 52.54 54.12 51.15 50.93 104.0 51.04 48.83 74.50 100.53 113.65 126.83 126.83 26.03 26.31
PEPPI KNOWS GOTHAM S (G3) AQUI 0306 8.50 1.0659 1.0292 1.00000 54.91 52.77 53.84 56.33 52.28 50.63 105.5 52.05 46.88 72.22 98.14 111.27 124.50 124.50 25.92 26.35
PULSION FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S (G2) GP 0220 9.00 1.0162 1.0770 0.99999 53.66 53.38 53.52 54.18 52.64 53.09 106.8 50.24 48.85 73.75 98.80 111.36 123.94 123.54 25.04 25.15
RADIOHEAD ALW GP 0227 8.00 1.0003 1.0783 0.99999 55.00 55.23 55.12 55.13 54.75 55.46 110.5 49.77 47.93 71.90 95.88 107.87 119.86 119.46 23.98 23.98
RAISE THE BRIDLE BORDERLAND DERBY SUN 0227 8.50 1.0351 1.0592 0.99998 54.25 52.74 53.49 54.77 53.22 51.24 105.5 51.42 48.13 73.23 98.63 111.42 124.26 125.26 25.40 25.63
RANGER HEARTLY CALIFORNIA DERBY  GG 0116 8.50 0.9944 1.0980 0.99998 53.37 53.12 53.25 53.01 54.09 52.88 106.2 50.25 49.74 74.44 99.09 111.40 123.71 122.91 24.65 24.62
RANGER HEARTLY EL CAMINO REAL DERBY (G3) GG 0220 9.00 1.0077 1.0844 0.99967 54.25 52.61 53.43 53.44 55.93 50.98 105.2 51.57 49.10 73.89 98.73 111.18 123.63 122.83 24.85 24.90
RON THE GREEK LECOMTE S (G3) FG 0123 8.18 0.9708 1.1164 0.99968 52.77 54.98 53.88 52.99 52.36 57.19 110.0 47.97 50.22 74.44 98.43 110.35 122.24 121.64 23.98 23.81
RON THE GREEK RISEN STAR S (G2) FG 0220 8.50 0.9625 1.1297 0.99999 52.35 53.65 53.00 51.70 53.62 54.94 107.3 48.79 51.19 75.62 99.75 111.72 123.65 123.05 24.13 23.90
RULE SAM F. DAVIS S (G3) TAM 0213 8.50 1.0366 1.0530 0.99998 54.85 53.37 54.11 55.46 53.65 51.89 106.7 51.40 47.54 72.38 97.53 110.20 122.92 121.72 25.15 25.38
SCHOOLYARD DREAMS OCl TAM 0109 8.18 1.0123 1.0889 0.99997 52.80 51.93 52.37 52.81 52.77 51.06 103.9 50.82 49.92 75.26 100.70 113.45 126.22 125.02 25.44 25.52
SCHOOLYARD DREAMS SAM F. DAVIS S (G3) TAM 0213 8.50 1.0413 1.0507 0.99995 54.78 52.94 53.86 55.36 53.65 51.10 105.9 51.73 47.60 72.61 97.97 110.76 123.60 122.40 25.36 25.63
SCHOOLYARD DREAMS TAMPA BAY DERBY (G3) TAM 0313 8.50 1.0328 1.0556 0.99975 55.31 52.96 54.13 55.32 55.28 50.61 105.9 52.23 47.58 72.32 97.35 109.94 122.58 121.38 25.02 25.23
SETSUKO SHAM S (G3) SA 0306 9.00 0.9979 1.0855 1.00000 54.43 54.52 54.47 54.46 54.36 54.60 109.0 49.94 48.56 72.77 96.97 109.07 121.16 123.16 24.20 24.19
SIDNEY'S CANDY SAN FELIPE S (G2) SA 0313 8.50 0.9926 1.0892 0.99976 53.95 55.62 54.79 54.55 52.80 57.29 111.2 48.52 48.61 72.70 96.73 108.72 120.71 122.71 24.03 23.98
STAY PUT RISEN STAR S (G2) FG 0220 8.50 0.9717 1.1187 1.00000 52.90 53.68 53.29 52.31 54.03 54.46 107.4 49.25 50.55 74.96 99.13 111.15 123.13 122.53 24.17 24.00
STORMING SAINT BORDERLAND DERBY SUN 0227 8.50 1.0150 1.0774 0.99990 54.11 52.79 53.45 53.99 54.33 51.48 105.6 51.24 48.81 73.66 98.64 111.16 123.71 124.71 24.98 25.07
SUPER SAVER TAMPA BAY DERBY (G3) TAM 0313 8.50 1.0558 1.0355 0.99994 55.31 52.96 54.13 56.17 53.65 50.61 105.9 52.23 46.89 71.95 97.48 110.39 123.38 122.18 25.53 25.90
TEMPTED TO TAPIT RISEN STAR S (G2) FG 0220 8.50 1.0176 1.0754 0.99999 53.88 53.06 53.47 54.12 53.42 52.23 106.1 50.78 48.75 73.65 98.70 111.27 123.86 123.26 25.05 25.16
THANK U PHILIPPE  HOLY BULL S (G3) GP 0123 8.00 1.0845 1.0039 0.99962 56.90 52.59 54.74 57.89 55.00 48.28 105.2 54.08 45.38 70.44 96.23 109.34 122.57 122.17 25.79 26.35
THE PROGRAM SHAM S (G3) SA 0306 9.00 1.0122 1.0725 1.00000 54.71 54.21 54.46 54.94 54.26 53.71 108.4 50.47 48.08 72.47 96.97 109.25 121.54 123.54 24.50 24.57
THREE DAY RUSH WHIRLAWAY S AQUI 0206 8.50 1.0371 1.0666 1.00000 53.02 51.82 52.42 53.81 51.53 50.62 103.6 51.17 49.09 74.74 100.73 113.82 126.96 126.96 25.98 26.23
THREE DAY RUSH GOTHAM S (G3) AQUI 0306 8.50 1.0950 1.0101 0.99958 55.15 50.55 52.85 56.22 53.17 45.94 101.1 54.55 46.70 72.80 99.76 113.49 127.37 127.37 26.96 27.61
TURF MELODY LECOMTE S (G3) FG 0123 8.18 1.0408 1.0552 0.99999 54.16 52.71 53.43 55.02 52.55 51.26 105.4 51.38 48.06 73.30 98.89 111.78 124.74 124.14 25.59 25.85
TURF MELODY GOTHAM S (G3) AQUI 0306 8.50 1.0310 1.0609 0.99998 54.49 53.11 53.80 55.04 53.47 51.72 106.2 51.31 48.04 72.96 98.15 110.83 123.54 123.54 25.19 25.39
UH OH BANGO REBEL S (G2) OP 0313 8.50 1.0324 1.0576 0.99992 54.85 53.11 53.98 55.15 54.26 51.38 106.2 51.65 47.77 72.61 97.72 110.36 123.04 122.24 25.11 25.32
UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN  SAM F. DAVIS S (G3) TAM 0213 8.50 1.0320 1.0611 0.99986 54.57 52.60 53.59 54.73 54.26 50.63