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Pace Parameters for 2010 Kentucky Derby Prep Races

Below is presented a variety of pace parameters for Derby contenders in 2010 prep races at a mile or more on dirt or synthetic surface.  In addition to the horse, race, track, date and distance, we have included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times.  These are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 10f (unadjusted), the predicted turn time in a 10f race (10fTT) and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in a 10f race (10fLQ).  Following 10f is Adj10f which is the projected 10f time adjusted for the differences in track speed between the track on which the prep race was run and Churchill Downs.  The various pace parameters are described here.

Note that because of unresolved questions related to the pace characteristics associated with all-weather surfaces, pace parameters for races on those surfaces are shown in italics in order to differentiate them from those for races on dirt.  At this point, it is left to the reader to decide the significance of these figures on the two different types of surface.  The final table of Derby starters also will differentiate between pace parameters on dirt and synthetic surfaces.  Once the Derby entries are drawn, the rank order in each category will replace the current table of top 10 contenders, many of which will not be entered.

The historical guideline figures for all Derby winners since 1984 plus Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid are displayed in the following table.  The Adj10f number is missing because the comparative data is unavailable for the races used in developing the guideline figures.  The significance of Adj10f is left to the reader.

3Fr TE %E 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
>=51.56 >=107.3 <=52.08 <=122.34 <=24.94 <=25.33

Cells colored green meet or exceed the guideline figures.  Cells colored red fail to meet the guideline figures.  Races for each horse are listed in chronological order with the latest race last. 
 
HORSE RACE TRK DATE DIST SLOPE INT CC EP SP AP 1FR 2FR 3FR TE %E 4F 6F 8F 9F 10F ADJ10F 10FTT 10FLQ
A LITTLE WARM LOUISIANA DERBY (G2) FG 0327 9.00 1.0317 1.0570 0.99993 55.00 53.32 54.16 55.23 54.54 51.64 106.6 51.59 47.66 72.42 97.44 110.03 122.67 122.67 25.02 25.22
AFLEET AGAIN WHIRLAWAY S AQUI 0206 8.50 1.0310 1.0731 0.99995 52.55 52.20 52.37 53.60 50.57 51.85 104.4 50.33 49.41 75.05 100.96 113.99 127.07 127.47 25.91 26.12
AFLEET AGAIN GOTHAM S (G3) AQUI 0306 8.50 1.0910 1.0207 0.99995 53.80 50.45 52.12 55.47 50.69 47.11 100.9 53.32 47.60 74.09 101.40 115.31 129.35 129.75 27.32 27.95
ALPHIE'S BET SHAM S (G3) SA 0306 9.00 0.9979 1.0838 1.00000 54.61 54.74 54.67 54.67 54.47 54.88 109.5 49.87 48.37 72.49 96.60 108.64 120.69 122.29 24.10 24.09
ALPHIE'S BET SANTA ANITA DERBY (G1) SA 0403 9.00 0.9933 1.0908 0.99991 54.57 54.07 54.32 53.93 55.88 53.56 108.1 50.48 48.84 73.07 97.23 109.30 121.36 122.96 24.17 24.13
AMERICAN LION ROBERT B. LEWIS S (G2) SA 0213 8.50 1.0285 1.0527 1.00000 55.62 54.58 55.10 56.17 54.54 53.54 109.2 50.93 46.98 71.28 95.82 108.16 120.54 122.14 24.54 24.72
AMERICAN LION SAN FELIPE S (G2) SA 0313 8.50 0.9985 1.0869 0.99987 53.81 54.95 54.38 54.34 52.80 56.08 109.9 48.97 48.76 73.09 97.41 109.56 121.72 123.32 24.32 24.31
AMERICAN LION ILLINOIS DERBY (G3) HAW 0403 9.00 1.0056 1.0851 0.99989 54.10 53.10 53.60 53.66 55.00 52.11 106.2 50.94 49.03 73.71 98.44 110.81 123.20 121.60 24.73 24.76
AWESOME ACT GOTHAM S (G3) AQUI 0306 8.50 1.0397 1.0494 0.99999 55.01 53.45 54.23 55.79 53.57 51.88 106.9 51.46 47.35 72.17 97.33 110.01 122.75 123.15 25.16 25.41
AWESOME ACT WOOD MEMORIAL S (G1) AQU 0403 9.00 0.9967 1.0956 0.99988 53.68 52.97 53.33 53.05 54.95 52.27 105.9 50.69 49.62 74.33 99.02 111.35 123.68 123.48 24.68 24.66
BACKTALK SPORTSMAN'S PARADISE S DED 0226 8.00 1.0172 1.0805 0.99987 53.51 51.95 52.73 53.43 53.67 50.38 103.9 51.50 49.31 74.49 99.81 112.52 125.25 123.85 25.32 25.43
BACKTALK ILLINOIS DERBY (G3) HAW 0403 9.00 1.0139 1.0868 0.99967 53.42 51.58 52.50 52.74 54.79 49.74 103.2 51.76 49.79 75.11 100.55 113.30 126.08 124.48 25.44 25.53
BEST ACTOR ALW GP 0131 9.00 1.0413 1.0462 0.99987 55.55 53.33 54.44 55.88 54.91 51.11 106.7 52.06 47.11 71.86 96.96 109.62 122.33 122.33 25.10 25.36
BEST ACTOR FLORIDA DERBY (G1) GP 0320 9.00 1.1202 0.9936 0.99949 55.03 49.42 52.23 56.30 52.58 43.82 98.8 55.70 46.56 73.32 101.20 115.48 129.94 129.94 27.88 28.74
BRAVO WHISKEY RISEN STAR S (G2) FG 0220 8.50 1.0332 1.0707 0.99998 53.03 51.68 52.35 53.55 52.01 50.32 103.4 51.29 49.29 74.94 100.88 113.94 127.04 127.04 25.94 26.16
CARACORTADO ROBERT B. LEWIS S (G2) SA 0213 8.50 1.0087 1.0694 1.00000 55.41 55.09 55.25 55.64 54.95 54.77 110.2 50.28 47.50 71.50 95.57 107.63 119.70 121.30 24.07 24.12
CARACORTADO SAN FELIPE S (G2) SA 0313 8.50 0.9729 1.1083 0.99990 53.68 55.48 54.58 53.62 53.80 57.29 111.0 48.36 49.44 73.35 97.04 108.82 120.57 122.17 23.69 23.53
CARACORTADO SANTA ANITA DERBY (G1) SA 0403 9.00 0.9873 1.0965 0.99998 54.29 54.35 54.32 53.77 55.35 54.40 108.7 49.95 49.07 73.23 97.28 109.28 121.26 122.86 24.05 23.98
CHIEF COUNSEL LANE'S END S (G2) TP 0327 9.00 0.9885 1.1032 0.99973 53.75 52.84 53.30 52.69 55.88 51.92 105.7 50.85 49.93 74.55 99.07 111.30 123.52 124.32 24.52 24.45
CITRUS KID LECOMTE S (G3) FG 0123 8.18 1.0433 1.0534 0.99997 54.22 52.47 53.35 55.02 52.75 50.72 104.9 51.69 48.03 73.32 98.99 111.93 124.94 124.94 25.67 25.95
CLASSICAL SLEW SUNLAND DERBY (G3) SUN 0328 9.00 1.0498 1.0628 0.99998 52.51 50.57 51.54 53.33 50.84 48.63 101.1 51.94 49.53 75.81 102.54 116.04 129.61 130.81 26.73 27.07
CODOY JOHN BATTAGLIA MEMORIAL S TP 0227 8.00 1.0463 1.0614 0.99966 53.40 50.56 51.98 53.57 53.07 47.73 101.1 52.82 49.13 75.09 101.46 114.77 128.14 128.94 26.37 26.68
CODOY TOYOTA BLUE GRASS S (G1) KEE 0410 9.00 0.9740 1.1129 1.00000 53.36 54.29 53.82 52.93 54.20 55.22 108.6 49.13 50.03 74.26 98.27 110.22 122.13 123.13 24.01 23.86
CONNEMARA EL CAMINO REAL DERBY (G3) GG 0220 9.00 0.9625 1.1247 0.99954 53.73 53.27 53.50 51.87 57.62 52.81 106.5 50.45 50.60 74.76 98.61 110.45 122.23 123.23 23.85 23.62
CONNEMARA LANE'S END S (G2) TP 0327 9.00 0.9797 1.1098 0.99961 53.89 53.01 53.45 52.48 56.71 52.12 106.0 50.84 50.08 74.50 98.76 110.84 122.89 123.69 24.26 24.13
CONVEYANCE SAN RAFAEL S (G3) SA 0116 8.00 0.9944 1.0864 0.99999 54.55 55.00 54.77 54.55 54.54 55.46 110.0 49.59 48.43 72.48 96.48 108.47 120.45 122.05 24.00 23.97
CONVEYANCE SOUTHWEST S (G3) OP 0220 8.00 1.0657 1.0220 0.99991 56.09 53.24 54.66 57.14 54.09 50.38 106.5 52.67 46.09 71.00 96.48 109.38 122.38 122.78 25.47 25.90
CONVEYANCE SUNLAND DERBY (G3) SUN 0328 9.00 1.0114 1.0713 0.99995 55.15 54.22 54.68 55.00 55.46 53.28 108.4 50.88 47.88 72.15 96.52 108.73 120.96 122.16 24.37 24.44
COOL BULLET SOUTHWEST S (G3) OP 0220 8.00 1.0888 1.0088 0.99960 55.88 51.41 53.65 56.93 53.89 46.95 102.8 54.36 46.16 71.78 98.19 111.62 125.19 125.59 26.40 27.00
DAVE IN DIXIE ROBERT B. LEWIS S (G2) SA 0213 8.50 0.9964 1.0819 0.99999 55.13 54.99 55.06 55.00 55.37 54.85 110.0 50.11 48.07 72.00 95.90 107.84 119.78 121.38 23.90 23.88
DAVE IN DIXIE SAN FELIPE S (G2) SA 0313 8.50 0.9662 1.1169 0.99998 53.47 54.99 54.23 53.00 54.40 56.51 110.0 48.61 49.96 73.92 97.60 109.36 121.08 122.68 23.68 23.48
DAVE IN DIXIE ILLINOIS DERBY (G3) HAW 0403 9.00 1.0059 1.0970 0.99989 52.66 51.66 52.16 52.24 53.54 50.66 103.3 50.98 50.43 75.82 101.27 114.01 126.75 125.15 25.45 25.48
DEAN'S KITTEN LANE'S END S (G2) TP 0327 9.00 1.0017 1.0854 0.99986 54.48 53.49 53.98 53.93 55.57 52.51 107.0 50.91 48.81 73.27 97.73 109.97 122.21 123.01 24.47 24.48
DISCREETLY MINE RISEN STAR S (G2) FG 0220 8.50 1.0194 1.0728 1.00000 53.95 53.25 53.60 54.32 53.22 52.55 106.5 50.66 48.58 73.45 98.48 111.05 123.64 123.64 25.03 25.15
DISCREETLY MINE LOUISIANA DERBY (G2) FG 0327 9.00 1.0302 1.0590 0.99995 54.86 53.32 54.09 55.13 54.33 51.77 106.6 51.46 47.78 72.56 97.59 110.18 122.81 122.81 25.03 25.22
DROSSELMEYER ALW GP 0131 9.00 1.0340 1.0515 0.99997 55.41 53.82 54.61 55.88 54.50 52.23 107.6 51.49 47.20 71.79 96.66 109.18 121.75 121.75 24.87 25.09
DROSSELMEYER RISEN STAR S (G2) FG 0220 8.50 1.0131 1.0805 1.00000 53.54 53.25 53.39 53.91 52.82 52.95 106.5 50.27 49.02 73.93 98.94 111.48 124.04 124.04 25.01 25.10
DROSSELMEYER LOUISIANA DERBY (G2) FG 0327 9.00 1.0067 1.0806 0.99986 54.62 53.45 54.04 54.18 55.47 52.29 106.9 51.09 48.61 73.12 97.68 109.97 122.28 122.28 24.56 24.60
DUBLIN SOUTHWEST S (G3) OP 0220 8.00 1.0144 1.0691 0.99991 55.24 53.82 54.53 55.25 55.22 52.39 107.6 51.34 47.84 72.19 96.65 108.91 121.20 121.60 24.46 24.55
DUBLIN REBEL S (G2) OP 0313 8.50 1.0119 1.0737 0.99993 54.81 53.75 54.28 54.73 54.97 52.68 107.5 50.99 48.18 72.63 97.16 109.46 121.78 122.18 24.54 24.61
DUBLIN ARKANSAS DERBY (G1) OP 0410 9.00 1.0303 1.0545 0.99996 55.45 53.89 54.67 55.84 54.71 52.33 107.8 51.44 47.29 71.82 96.60 109.06 121.56 121.96 24.78 24.97
ENDORSEMENT MSW FG 0110 8.18 1.0027 1.0943 0.99988 52.54 53.48 53.01 53.11 51.45 54.42 107.0 49.10 49.89 74.92 99.97 112.50 125.03 125.03 25.05 25.07
ENDORSEMENT MSW OP 0220 8.50 1.0113 1.0817 0.99999 53.51 53.37 53.44 53.88 52.80 53.23 106.7 50.15 49.03 73.89 98.84 111.34 123.86 124.26 24.95 25.02
ENDORSEMENT SUNLAND DERBY (G3) SUN 0328 9.00 0.9969 1.0828 0.99996 55.08 54.66 54.87 54.69 55.88 54.23 109.3 50.40 48.20 72.21 96.19 108.17 120.15 121.35 23.98 23.96
ESKENDEREYA FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S (G2) GP 0220 9.00 1.0091 1.0740 1.00000 54.70 54.55 54.62 55.02 54.06 54.40 109.1 50.13 48.03 72.31 96.67 108.87 121.08 121.08 24.36 24.41
ESKENDEREYA WOOD MEMORIAL S (G1) AQU 0403 9.00 0.9824 1.1027 0.99999 53.88 54.21 54.04 53.35 54.95 54.53 108.4 49.71 49.45 73.65 97.70 109.69 121.65 121.45 24.05 23.95
FLY DOWN LOUISIANA DERBY (G2) FG 0327 9.00 1.0057 1.0875 1.00000 53.58 53.16 53.37 53.61 53.51 52.75 106.3 50.40 49.32 74.15 99.02 111.48 123.94 123.94 24.88 24.91
HOMEBOYKRIS HOLY BULL S (G3) GP 0123 8.00 1.0845 1.0039 0.99962 56.90 52.59 54.74 57.89 55.00 48.28 105.2 54.08 45.38 70.44 96.23 109.34 122.57 122.57 25.79 26.35
HOMEBOYKRIS ALW GP 0227 8.00 1.0015 1.0806 0.99997 54.55 55.00 54.78 54.81 54.02 55.46 110.0 49.59 48.26 72.43 96.62 108.72 120.81 120.81 24.19 24.19
ICE BOX ALW GP 0118 9.00 1.0146 1.0729 0.99995 54.63 53.57 54.10 54.56 54.75 52.51 107.1 51.01 48.28 72.85 97.55 109.93 122.33 122.33 24.69 24.79
ICE BOX FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S (G2) GP 0220 9.00 0.9993 1.0908 0.99986 54.07 53.21 53.64 53.50 55.18 52.34 106.4 50.82 49.26 73.87 98.47 110.77 123.07 123.07 24.60 24.60
ICE BOX FLORIDA DERBY (G1) GP 0320 9.00 1.0037 1.0789 0.99997 54.99 54.29 54.64 54.85 55.26 53.58 108.6 50.64 48.21 72.42 96.66 108.80 120.93 120.93 24.24 24.27
INTERACTIF SAN FELIPE S (G2) SA 0313 8.50 0.9802 1.1011 0.99974 53.68 55.74 54.71 54.03 53.00 57.81 111.5 48.14 49.12 73.09 96.90 108.76 120.59 122.19 23.81 23.69
INTERACTIF TOYOTA BLUE GRASS S (G1) KEE 0410 9.00 1.0017 1.0850 1.00000 54.22 54.00 54.11 54.18 54.30 53.78 108.0 50.21 48.77 73.20 97.65 109.87 122.10 123.10 24.45 24.46
JACKSON BEND HOLY BULL S (G3) GP 0123 8.00 1.0635 1.0197 0.99984 56.75 53.62 55.18 57.62 55.10 50.48 107.2 52.94 45.71 70.35 95.53 108.28 121.12 121.12 25.18 25.59
JACKSON BEND FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S (G2) GP 0220 9.00 1.0231 1.0663 0.99997 54.56 53.45 54.00 54.81 54.06 52.34 106.9 51.04 48.12 72.85 97.79 110.31 122.86 122.86 24.93 25.08
JACKSON BEND WOOD MEMORIAL S (G1) AQU 0403 9.00 1.0066 1.0861 0.99988 53.88 52.87 53.37 53.46 54.75 51.85 105.7 50.98 49.22 74.03 98.90 111.35 123.81 123.61 24.87 24.91
KERA'S KITTEN WEBN S TP 0130 8.00 1.0626 1.0440 0.99989 53.66 50.92 52.29 54.55 51.96 48.18 101.8 52.71 48.27 74.27 100.83 114.27 127.80 128.60 26.56 26.98
KERA'S KITTEN JOHN BATTAGLIA MEMORIAL S TP 0227 8.50 1.1427 0.9858 0.99928 53.80 47.50 50.65 55.46 50.76 41.19 95.0 56.64 47.19 75.00 104.19 119.20 134.45 135.25 29.19 30.26
LAUS DEO COUNT FLEET S AQUI 0102 8.32 1.0271 1.0755 1.00000 52.80 52.07 52.44 53.44 51.56 51.34 104.1 50.72 49.42 74.94 100.71 113.66 126.65 127.05 25.76 25.94
LETSGETITONMOM RISEN STAR S (G2) FG 0220 8.50 0.9653 1.1294 1.00000 52.18 53.24 52.71 51.49 53.52 54.30 106.5 49.00 51.36 75.97 100.28 112.36 124.39 124.39 24.32 24.10
LETSGETITONMOM LANE'S END S (G2) TP 0327 9.00 0.9742 1.1183 0.99981 53.20 52.93 53.06 51.96 55.68 52.65 105.9 50.24 50.67 75.22 99.55 111.65 123.72 124.52 24.33 24.17
LINE OF DAVID MSW SA 0205 8.50 1.0138 1.0777 0.99990 54.18 52.92 53.55 54.00 54.54 51.67 105.8 51.21 48.76 73.55 98.46 110.95 123.46 125.06 24.91 25.00
LINE OF DAVID ARKANSAS DERBY (G1) OP 0410 9.00 1.0608 1.0251 0.99997 56.09 53.70 54.89 57.14 54.09 51.30 107.4 52.23 46.11 70.89 96.18 108.98 121.87 122.27 25.29 25.69
LOOKIN AT LUCKY REBEL S (G2) OP 0313 8.50 0.9991 1.0841 1.00000 54.54 54.42 54.48 54.52 54.57 54.30 108.8 50.13 48.48 72.70 96.91 109.01 121.11 121.51 24.21 24.20
LOOKIN AT LUCKY SANTA ANITA DERBY (G1) SA 0403 9.00 0.9932 1.0894 0.99995 54.64 54.34 54.49 54.13 55.67 54.05 108.7 50.27 48.69 72.83 96.92 108.95 120.97 122.57 24.09 24.05
LOST APTITUDE FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S (G2) GP 0220 9.00 1.1143 1.0070 0.99991 53.38 48.88 51.13 55.23 49.79 44.37 97.8 54.58 47.63 74.83 103.12 117.58 132.23 132.23 28.28 29.11
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME TOYOTA BLUE GRASS S (G1) KEE 0410 9.00 0.9957 1.0916 0.99999 54.05 53.92 53.98 53.82 54.50 53.78 107.8 50.14 49.10 73.51 97.90 110.08 122.25 123.25 24.38 24.36
MAXIMUS RULER LECOMTE S (G3) FG 0123 8.18 1.0657 1.0288 1.00000 54.85 53.05 53.95 56.41 51.96 51.26 106.1 51.69 46.82 72.12 98.00 111.11 124.31 124.31 25.88 26.31
MIDDLE OF THE NITE SAM F. DAVIS S (G3) TAM 0213 8.50 1.0739 1.0285 0.99962 54.85 50.97 52.91 55.46 53.65 47.09 101.9 53.82 47.32 73.14 99.61 113.04 126.58 126.38 26.47 26.97
MINER'S RESERVE FLORIDA DERBY (G1) GP 0320 9.00 1.1099 0.9999 0.99905 55.52 49.60 52.56 56.14 54.33 43.68 99.2 55.97 46.57 73.04 100.51 114.54 128.75 128.75 27.47 28.25
MISSION IMPAZIBLE SOUTHWEST S (G3) OP 0220 8.00 1.0691 1.0228 0.99992 55.67 52.78 54.22 56.82 53.48 49.90 105.6 52.71 46.40 71.58 97.35 110.41 123.58 123.98 25.77 26.23
MISSION IMPAZIBLE LOUISIANA DERBY (G2) FG 0327 9.00 1.0210 1.0681 1.00000 54.34 53.71 54.03 54.86 53.30 53.08 107.4 50.60 48.17 72.88 97.76 110.25 122.78 122.78 24.88 25.01
NACHO FRIEND GOTHAM S (G3) AQUI 0306 8.50 1.0526 1.0392 0.99994 55.15 52.89 54.02 56.01 53.57 50.63 105.8 52.13 47.09 72.16 97.68 110.58 123.55 123.95 25.52 25.86
NACHO FRIEND SUNLAND DERBY (G3) SUN 0328 9.00 1.0115 1.0760 0.99997 54.53 53.73 54.13 54.48 54.62 52.94 107.5 50.72 48.41 72.96 97.60 109.95 122.32 123.52 24.64 24.72
NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR MSW SA 0124 8.50 1.0152 1.0733 0.99998 54.11 54.00 54.06 54.69 53.00 53.90 108.0 50.10 48.36 72.99 97.75 110.17 122.61 124.21 24.76 24.85
NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR SHAM S (G3) SA 0306 9.00 1.0329 1.0554 1.00000 54.85 53.66 54.25 55.46 53.65 52.47 107.3 51.12 47.56 72.31 97.33 109.92 122.56 124.16 25.02 25.23
NOBLE'S PROMISE REBEL S (G2) OP 0313 8.50 1.0071 1.0761 0.99998 54.85 54.21 54.53 54.83 54.87 53.57 108.4 50.60 48.13 72.41 96.75 108.93 121.13 121.53 24.34 24.38
NOBLE'S PROMISE ARKANSAS DERBY (G1) OP 0410 9.00 1.0283 1.0588 0.99990 55.24 53.50 54.37 55.41 54.91 51.75 107.0 51.63 47.64 72.28 97.17 109.68 122.23 122.63 24.88 25.06
NORTHERN GIANT MSW FG 0110 8.18 1.0227 1.0793 0.99998 52.67 52.42 52.55 53.37 51.35 52.16 104.8 50.26 49.55 75.02 100.68 113.56 126.48 126.48 25.66 25.81
NORTHERN GIANT MSW OP 0204 8.50 1.0386 1.0635 0.99998 53.37 51.83 52.60 54.00 52.16 50.30 103.7 51.47 48.84 74.41 100.32 113.37 126.48 126.88 25.91 26.16
NORTHERN GIANT RISEN STAR S (G2) FG 0220 8.50 1.0128 1.0801 0.99999 53.75 53.11 53.43 53.91 53.42 52.47 106.2 50.61 48.96 73.83 98.80 111.32 123.85 123.85 24.97 25.05
NORTHERN GIANT LANE'S END S (G2) TP 0327 9.00 1.0022 1.0869 0.99986 54.27 53.26 53.76 53.72 55.37 52.25 106.5 50.96 49.01 73.58 98.17 110.46 122.77 123.57 24.59 24.60
NORTHERN GIANT ARKANSAS DERBY (G1) OP 0410 9.00 1.0511 1.0444 0.99979 55.03 52.25 53.64 55.41 54.30 49.48 104.5 52.66 47.56 72.83 98.55 111.54 124.60 125.00 25.72 26.05
PADDY O'PRADO TOYOTA BLUE GRASS S (G1) KEE 0410 9.00 1.0190 1.0664 0.99999 54.85 54.04 54.44 55.13 54.30 53.23 108.1 50.74 47.85 72.34 96.98 109.35 121.74 122.74 24.64 24.76
PEPPI KNOWS WHIRLAWAY S AQUI 0206 8.50 1.0417 1.0615 1.00000 53.08 52.01 52.54 54.12 51.15 50.93 104.0 51.04 48.83 74.50 100.53 113.65 126.83 127.23 26.03 26.31
PEPPI KNOWS GOTHAM S (G3) AQUI 0306 8.50 1.0659 1.0292 1.00000 54.91 52.77 53.84 56.33 52.28 50.63 105.5 52.05 46.88 72.22 98.14 111.27 124.50 124.90 25.92 26.35
PLEASANT PRINCE ALW GP 0107 8.00 1.0156 1.0727 0.99976 54.82 52.91 53.86 54.52 55.41 51.00 105.8 51.81 48.32 72.94 97.69 110.11 122.54 122.54 24.75 24.85
PLEASANT PRINCE ALW GP 0118 9.00 1.0094 1.0777 0.99986 54.70 53.47 54.08 54.30 55.47 52.25 106.9 51.17 48.46 72.97 97.55 109.87 122.20 122.20 24.59 24.64
PLEASANT PRINCE FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S (G2) GP 0220 9.00 1.0105 1.0803 1.00000 53.94 53.51 53.72 54.13 53.55 53.09 107.0 50.41 48.83 73.56 98.37 110.81 123.25 123.25 24.82 24.88
PLEASANT PRINCE FLORIDA DERBY (G1) GP 0320 9.00 1.0295 1.0538 0.99993 55.67 54.00 54.83 55.93 55.16 52.34 108.0 51.54 47.17 71.60 96.28 108.69 121.15 121.15 24.68 24.86
PLEASANT PRINCE TOYOTA BLUE GRASS S (G1) KEE 0410 9.00 0.9885 1.0996 0.99999 53.74 53.89 53.82 53.40 54.40 54.05 107.8 49.85 49.51 73.92 98.23 110.36 122.47 123.47 24.31 24.24
PULSION FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S (G2) GP 0220 9.00 1.0162 1.0770 0.99999 53.66 53.38 53.52 54.18 52.64 53.09 106.8 50.24 48.85 73.75 98.80 111.36 123.94 123.94 25.04 25.15
PULSION FLORIDA DERBY (G1) GP 0320 9.00 1.0689 1.0210 0.99983 56.09 52.92 54.50 56.90 54.54 49.74 105.8 53.02 46.19 71.25 96.90 109.90 123.00 123.00 25.65 26.10
PULSION ARKANSAS DERBY (G1) OP 0410 9.00 1.0223 1.0715 0.99990 54.32 52.75 53.53 54.33 54.30 51.17 105.5 51.49 48.63 73.61 98.77 111.41 124.08 124.48 25.17 25.31
RADIOHEAD ALW GP 0227 8.00 1.0003 1.0783 0.99999 55.00 55.23 55.12 55.13 54.75 55.46 110.5 49.77 47.93 71.90 95.88 107.87 119.86 119.86 23.98 23.98
RADIOHEAD FLORIDA DERBY (G1) GP 0320 9.00 1.0796 1.0165 0.99955 55.95 51.80 53.88 56.52 54.85 47.66 103.6 54.00 46.40 71.88 98.06 111.35 124.77 124.77 26.18 26.71
RAISE THE BRIDLE BORDERLAND DERBY SUN 0227 8.50 1.0351 1.0592 0.99998 54.25 52.74 53.49 54.77 53.22 51.24 105.5 51.42 48.13 73.23 98.63 111.42 124.26 125.46 25.40 25.63
RANGER HEARTLEY CALIFORNIA DERBY  GG 0116 8.50 0.9944 1.0980 0.99998 53.37 53.12 53.25 53.01 54.09 52.88 106.2 50.25 49.74 74.44 99.09 111.40 123.71 124.71 24.65 24.62
RANGER HEARTLEY LANE'S END S (G2) TP 0327 9.00 1.0505 1.0494 0.99962 54.55 51.45 53.00 54.55 54.54 48.35 102.9 53.01 48.07 73.60 99.57 112.68 125.87 126.67 25.97 26.30
RANGER HEARTLY EL CAMINO REAL DERBY (G3) GG 0220 9.00 1.0077 1.0844 0.99967 54.25 52.61 53.43 53.44 55.93 50.98 105.2 51.57 49.10 73.89 98.73 111.18 123.63 124.63 24.85 24.90
RON THE GREEK LECOMTE S (G3) FG 0123 8.18 0.9708 1.1164 0.99968 52.77 54.98 53.88 52.99 52.36 57.19 110.0 47.97 50.22 74.44 98.43 110.35 122.24 122.24 23.98 23.81
RON THE GREEK RISEN STAR S (G2) FG 0220 8.50 0.9625 1.1297 0.99999 52.35 53.65 53.00 51.70 53.62 54.94 107.3 48.79 51.19 75.62 99.75 111.72 123.65 123.65 24.13 23.90
RON THE GREEK LOUISIANA DERBY (G2) FG 0327 9.00 0.9935 1.0962 0.99997 53.78 53.50 53.64 53.40 54.54 53.21 107.0 50.27 49.47 74.00 98.49 110.71 122.93 122.93 24.48 24.44
RULE SAM F. DAVIS S (G3) TAM 0213 8.50 1.0366 1.0530 0.99998 54.85 53.37 54.11 55.46 53.65 51.89 106.7 51.40 47.54 72.38 97.53 110.20 122.92 122.72 25.15 25.38
RULE FLORIDA DERBY (G1) GP 0320 9.00 1.0560 1.0295 0.99994 56.09 53.67 54.88 56.90 54.54 51.24 107.3 52.27 46.27 71.00 96.20 108.94 121.76 121.76 25.20 25.56
SCHOOLYARD DREAMS OCl TAM 0109 8.18 1.0123 1.0889 0.99997 52.80 51.93 52.37 52.81 52.77 51.06 103.9 50.82 49.92 75.26 100.70 113.45 126.22 126.02 25.44 25.52
SCHOOLYARD DREAMS SAM F. DAVIS S (G3) TAM 0213 8.50 1.0413 1.0507 0.99995 54.78 52.94 53.86 55.36 53.65 51.10 105.9 51.73 47.60 72.61 97.97 110.76 123.60 123.40 25.36 25.63
SCHOOLYARD DREAMS TAMPA BAY DERBY (G3) TAM 0313 8.50 1.0328 1.0556 0.99975 55.31 52.96 54.13 55.32 55.28 50.61 105.9 52.23 47.58 72.32 97.35 109.94 122.58 122.38 25.02 25.23
SCHOOLYARD DREAMS WOOD MEMORIAL S (G1) AQU 0403 9.00 0.9975 1.0960 0.99989 53.54 52.84 53.19 52.95 54.75 52.13 105.7 50.65 49.73 74.52 99.28 111.66 124.04 123.84 24.77 24.75
SETSUKO SHAM S (G3) SA 0306 9.00 0.9979 1.0855 1.00000 54.43 54.52 54.47 54.46 54.36 54.60 109.0 49.94 48.56 72.77 96.97 109.07 121.16 122.76 24.20 24.19
SETSUKO SANTA ANITA DERBY (G1) SA 0403 9.00 0.9636 1.1170 0.99998 54.02 54.87 54.44 53.05 55.98 55.73 109.7 49.24 49.79 73.59 97.09 108.76 120.38 121.98 23.51 23.29
SIDNEY'S CANDY SAN FELIPE S (G2) SA 0313 8.50 0.9926 1.0892 0.99976 53.95 55.62 54.79 54.55 52.80 57.29 111.2 48.52 48.61 72.70 96.73 108.72 120.71 122.31 24.03 23.98
SIDNEY'S CANDY SANTA ANITA DERBY (G1) SA 0403 9.00 0.9898 1.0887 1.00000 54.85 55.08 54.96 54.55 55.46 55.31 110.2 49.77 48.38 72.27 96.07 107.95 119.82 121.42 23.81 23.74
SOARING EMPIRE FLORIDA DERBY (G1) GP 0320 9.00 1.0673 1.0275 0.99974 55.59 52.21 53.90 56.20 54.44 48.83 104.4 53.25 46.78 72.12 98.03 111.17 124.40 124.40 25.92 26.36
STATELY VICTOR ALW GP 0131 9.00 1.0461 1.0442 0.99993 55.23 53.11 54.17 55.82 54.09 50.98 106.2 52.01 47.22 72.16 97.50 110.29 123.14 123.14 25.34 25.64
STATELY VICTOR TOYOTA BLUE GRASS S (G1) KEE 0410 9.00 0.9789 1.1020 1.00000 54.19 54.94 54.57 53.87 54.81 55.70 109.9 49.31 49.13 73.06 96.83 108.66 120.47 121.47 23.77 23.64
STAY PUT OCl FG 0103 8.18 0.9698 1.1186 0.99993 52.82 54.42 53.62 52.58 53.27 56.02 108.8 48.55 50.41 74.69 98.72 110.67 122.57 122.57 24.03 23.85
STAY PUT RISEN STAR S (G2) FG 0220 8.50 0.9717 1.1187 1.00000 52.90 53.68 53.29 52.31 54.03 54.46 107.4 49.25 50.55 74.96 99.13 111.15 123.13 123.13 24.17 24.00
STAY PUT LOUISIANA DERBY (G2) FG 0327 9.00 0.9868 1.1017 0.99996 53.78 53.59 53.69 53.19 54.95 53.40 107.2 50.17 49.64 74.07 98.38 110.51 122.62 122.62 24.32 24.24
STORMING SAINT BORDERLAND DERBY SUN 0227 8.50 1.0150 1.0774 0.99990 54.11 52.79 53.45 53.99 54.33 51.48 105.6 51.24 48.81 73.66 98.64 111.16 123.71 124.91 24.98 25.07
STORMING SAINT SUNLAND DERBY (G3) SUN 0328 9.00 1.0008 1.0882 0.99999 53.97 53.72 53.85 53.85 54.20 53.48 107.4 50.25 49.06 73.62 98.18 110.46 122.75 123.95 24.56 24.57
SUPER SAVER TAMPA BAY DERBY (G3) TAM 0313 8.50 1.0558 1.0355 0.99994 55.31 52.96 54.13 56.17 53.65 50.61 105.9 52.23 46.89 71.95 97.48 110.39 123.38 123.18 25.53 25.90
SUPER SAVER ARKANSAS DERBY (G1) OP 0410 9.00 1.0428 1.0426 0.99997 55.67 53.84 54.75 56.39 54.30 52.01 107.7 51.69 46.82 71.45 96.45 109.06 121.72 122.12 25.00 25.27
TEMPTED TO TAPIT RISEN STAR S (G2) FG 0220 8.50 1.0176 1.0754 0.99999 53.88 53.06 53.47 54.12 53.42 52.23 106.1 50.78 48.75 73.65 98.70 111.27 123.86 123.86 25.05 25.16
TEMPTED TO TAPIT SUNLAND DERBY (G3) SUN 0328 9.00 1.0079 1.0770 0.99995 54.81 53.97 54.39 54.58 55.25 53.14 107.9 50.79 48.28 72.65 97.09 109.33 121.58 122.78 24.44 24.49
THANK U PHILIPPE  HOLY BULL S (G3) GP 0123 8.00 1.0845 1.0039 0.99962 56.90 52.59 54.74 57.89 55.00 48.28 105.2 54.08 45.38 70.44 96.23 109.34 122.57 122.57 25.79 26.35
THE PROGRAM SHAM S (G3) SA 0306 9.00 1.0122 1.0725 1.00000 54.71 54.21 54.46 54.94 54.26 53.71 108.4 50.47 48.08 72.47 96.97 109.25 121.54 123.14 24.50 24.57
THE PROGRAM LOUISIANA DERBY (G2) FG 0327 9.00 1.0282 1.0642 0.99993 54.48 52.92 53.70 54.65 54.13 51.37 105.8 51.49 48.22 73.15 98.33 110.99 123.69 123.69 25.18 25.36
THREE DAY RUSH WHIRLAWAY S AQUI 0206 8.50 1.0371 1.0666 1.00000 53.02 51.82 52.42 53.81 51.53 50.62 103.6 51.17 49.09 74.74 100.73 113.82 126.96 127.36 25.98 26.23
THREE DAY RUSH GOTHAM S (G3) AQUI 0306 8.50 1.0950 1.0101 0.99958 55.15 50.55 52.85 56.22 53.17 45.94 101.1 54.55 46.70 72.80 99.76 113.49 127.37 127.77 26.96 27.61
TURF MELODY LECOMTE S (G3) FG 0123 8.18 1.0408 1.0552 0.99999 54.16 52.71 53.43 55.02 52.55 51.26 105.4 51.38 48.06 73.30 98.89 111.78 124.74 124.74 25.59 25.85
TURF MELODY GOTHAM S (G3) AQUI 0306 8.50 1.0310 1.0609 0.99998 54.49 53.11 53.80 55.04 53.47 51.72 106.2 51.31 48.04 72.96 98.15 110.83 123.54 123.94 25.19 25.39
TURF MELODY ILLINOIS DERBY (G3) HAW 0403 9.00 1.0218 1.0792 0.99963 53.62 51.45 52.54 53.05 54.79 49.28 102.9 52.11 49.48 74.87 100.46 113.31 126.19 124.59 25.59 25.73
UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN SAM F. DAVIS S (G3) TAM 0213 8.50 1.0320 1.0611 0.99986 54.57 52.60 53.59 54.73 54.26 50.63 105.2 51.87 48.13 73.14 98.42 111.15 123.91 123.71 25.28 25.49
UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN TAMPA BAY DERBY (G3) TAM 0313 8.50 1.0544 1.0392 0.99996 54.96 52.75 53.85 55.85 53.25 50.54 105.5 52.09 47.21 72.39 98.05 111.01 124.06 123.86 25.65 26.01
VOW TO WAGER JOHN BATTAGLIA MEMORIAL S TP 0227 8.50 1.0680 1.0429 0.99985 53.40 50.42 51.91 54.31 51.73 47.44 100.8 52.97 48.52 74.81 101.72 115.35 129.09 129.89 26.91 27.37
VOW TO WAGER LANE'S END S (G2) TP 0327 9.00 1.0275 1.0666 0.99976 54.48 52.40 53.44 54.24 54.95 50.33 104.8 51.98 48.44 73.48 98.75 111.46 124.20 125.00 25.27 25.45
WHO'S UP SANTA ANITA DERBY (G1) SA 0403 9.00 1.0159 1.0736 0.99977 54.71 53.05 53.88 54.24 55.67 51.40 106.1 51.56 48.45 73.15 97.98 110.43 122.91 124.51 24.83 24.93
WILDCAT FRANKIE ALW GP 0206 8.00 1.0818 1.0132 0.99966 55.93 51.88 53.91 56.90 54.09 47.83 103.8 53.88 46.18 71.61 97.75 111.03 124.44 124.44 26.14 26.69
WILLIAM'S KITTEN HOLY BULL S (G3) GP 0123 8.00 1.0548 1.0308 0.99989 56.18 53.47 54.82 56.96 54.68 50.76 106.9 52.55 46.33 71.05 96.25 108.98 121.79 121.79 25.19 25.54
WORLDLY LECOMTE S (G3) FG 0123 8.18 1.0486 1.0461 1.00000 54.50 52.88 53.69 55.56 52.55 51.26 105.8 51.51 47.58 72.79 98.42 111.36 124.37 124.37 25.63 25.95
WORLDLY RISEN STAR S (G2) FG 0220 8.50 1.0132 1.0825 0.99996 53.54 52.61 53.07 53.55 53.52 51.67 105.2 50.90 49.26 74.29 99.43 112.03 124.65 124.65 25.14 25.22
YAWANNA TWIST GOTHAM S (G3) AQUI 0306 8.50 1.0460 1.0453 1.00000 54.74 53.42 54.08 55.90 52.57 52.11 106.8 51.25 47.32 72.32 97.71 110.52 123.40 123.80 25.39 25.69
YAWANNA TWIST ILLINOIS DERBY (G3) HAW 0403 9.00 1.0041 1.0877 0.99975 54.10 52.74 53.42 53.35 55.62 51.38 105.5 51.28 49.24 73.98 98.76 111.16 123.56 121.96 24.78 24.80

Since 1998, the Derby winner has been among the top five:
8 times in 3Fr;
8 times in TE;
5 times in %E;
7 times in 10f;
7 times in 10fTT;
 7 times in 10fLQ:
9 times in PF.

Top 10 by category through April 10 (PFs are in races on dirt or an AWS at a mile or longer in 2010):

3Fr   TE %E 10f Adj10f 10fTT 10fLQ PF
INTERACTIF INTERACTIF RON THE GREEK CARACORTADO RADIOHEAD SETSUKO SETSUKO Eskendereya (-76)
CARACORTADO SIDNEY'S CANDY  INTERACTIF DAVE IN DIXIE HOMEBOYKRIS DAVE IN DIXIE DAVE IN DIXIE Caracortado (-73)
SIDNEY'S CANDY  CARACORTADO CARACORTADO SIDNEY'S CANDY ICE BOX CARACORTADO CARACORTADO Dave in Dixie (-66)
RON THE GREEK RADIOHEAD SIDNEY'S CANDY RADIOHEAD ESKENDEREYA STATELY VICTOR CONNEMARA American Lion (-64)
DAVE IN DIXIE RON THE GREEK STAY PUT ENDORSEMENT JACKSON BEND SIDNEY'S CANDY  STATELY VICTOR  Super Saver (-59)
AMERICAN LION DAVE IN DIXIE DAVE IN DIXIE SETSUKO PLEASANT PRINCE  INTERACTIF INTERACTIF Schoolyard Dreams (-59) 
STAY PUT CONVEYANCE AMERICAN LION CONVEYANCE CARACORTADO CONNEMARA SIDNEY'S CANDY Mission Impazible (-56)
SETSUKO HOMEBOYKRIS LETSGETITONMOM  STATELY VICTOR  ENDORSEMENT DAVE IN DIXIE RON THE GREEK Sidney's Candy (-54)
STATELY VICTOR AMERICAN LION ENDORSEMENT AMERICAN LION DAVE IN DIXIE RADIOHEAD STAY PUT A LITTLE WARM (-53)
CONVEYANCE STATELY VICTOR CODOY INTERACTIF SIDNEY'S CANDY ENDORSEMENT CODOY LINE OF DAVID (-52)
          RON THE GREEK   INTERACTIF (-52)
               DROSSELMEYER (-52)

Definition of Pace Terms: 

Slope is a measure of fatigue.  It parallels the increase in time required to negotiate an additional distance.  The higher the number, the steeper the slope, indicating that the fatigue rate is greater.  Slopes will generally fall between 0.9 (slow early-fast late) and 1.2 (fast early-slow late).

Int., or Intercept is a measure of early speed and is inversely related to the slope.  In this case, the lower the intercept, the greater the relative early speed.  Intercepts also will usually fall between 0.9 (fast early) and 1.2 (slow early).

CC, or Correlation Coefficient is a measure of how efficiently a horse's speed is used throughout the whole race.  Perfect efficiency is equal to a CC of 1.00000.  Any value below 1.00000 represents less than ideal efficiency, although it is almost always greater than 0.99900.  The very best horses continually display CC's above 0.99990 while lower quality horses may not display CCs that high.

The remaining terms are part of the "Sartin Methodology" for describing pace characteristics as discussed by Tom Brohamer ("Modern Pace Handicapping", by Tom Brohamer, William Morrow and Company, Inc,. New York, 1991):

EP (Early Pace) is velocity in fps (feet-per-second) to the second call.

SP (Sustained Pace) is the average of early pace and the final fraction, thus relating a horse's speed to the second call and his ability to finish.

AP (Average Pace) is the average  of EP and SP.

1Fr (First Fraction), 2Fr (Second Fraction) and 3Fr (Third Fraction) are the average velocities in fps between each of the calls.

TE (Total Energy) is the sum of EP and 3Fr.  It is the total available energy based on current conditions of distance, surface and track as well as inherent ability.

%E (Percent Early) is a relative measure of energy used through the second call (EP/TE).  Speed types display %E figures significantly higher than off-the-pace types, although the absolute numbers are greatly affected by the distance of a race.

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