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Pace Parameters for 2010 Kentucky Derby Prep Races

Below is presented a variety of pace parameters for Derby contenders in 2010 prep races at a mile or more on dirt or synthetic surface.  In addition to the horse, race, track, date and distance, we have included the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient derived from linear regression of the horse's fractional and final times.  These are followed by unadjusted Brohamer-type pace numbers and, from the linear regression, predicted fractional times up to 10f (unadjusted), the predicted turn time in a 10f race (10fTT) and the predicted last quarter mile fraction in a 10f race (10fLQ).  Following 10f is Adj10f which is the projected 10f time adjusted for the differences in track speed between the track on which the prep race was run and Churchill Downs.  The various pace parameters are described here.

Note that because of unresolved questions related to the pace characteristics associated with all-weather surfaces, pace parameters for races on those surfaces are shown in italics in order to differentiate them from those for races on dirt.  At this point, it is left to the reader to decide the significance of these figures on the two different types of surface.  The final table of Derby starters also will differentiate between pace parameters on dirt and synthetic surfaces.  Once the Derby entries are drawn, the rank order in each category will replace the current table of top 10 contenders, many of which will not be entered.

The historical guideline figures for all Derby winners since 1984 plus Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid are displayed in the following table.  The Adj10f number is missing because the comparative data is unavailable for the races used in developing the guideline figures.  The significance of Adj10f is left to the reader.

3Fr TE %E 10f 10fTT 10fLQ
>=51.56 >=107.3 <=52.08 <=122.34 <=24.94 <=25.33

Cells colored green meet or exceed the guideline figures.  Cells colored red fail to meet the guideline figures.  Races for each horse are listed in chronological order with the latest race last. 
 
HORSE RACE TRK DATE DIST SLOPE INT CC EP SP AP 1FR 2FR 3FR TE %E 4F 6F 8F 9F 10F ADJ10F 10FTT 10FLQ
A LITTLE WARM LOUISIANA DERBY (G2) FG 0327 9.00 1.0317 1.0570 0.99993 55.00 53.32 54.16 55.23 54.54 51.64 106.6 51.59 47.66 72.42 97.44 110.03 122.67 122.67 25.02 25.22
AFLEET AGAIN WHIRLAWAY S AQUI 0206 8.50 1.0310 1.0731 0.99995 52.55 52.20 52.37 53.60 50.57 51.85 104.4 50.33 49.41 75.05 100.96 113.99 127.07 127.47 25.91 26.12
AFLEET AGAIN GOTHAM S (G3) AQUI 0306 8.50 1.0910 1.0207 0.99995 53.80 50.45 52.12 55.47 50.69 47.11 100.9 53.32 47.60 74.09 101.40 115.31 129.35 129.75 27.32 27.95
ALPHIE'S BET SHAM S (G3) SA 0306 9.00 0.9979 1.0838 1.00000 54.61 54.74 54.67 54.67 54.47 54.88 109.5 49.87 48.37 72.49 96.60 108.64 120.69 122.29 24.10 24.09
ALPHIE'S BET SANTA ANITA DERBY (G1) SA 0403 9.00 0.9933 1.0908 0.99991 54.57 54.07 54.32 53.93 55.88 53.56 108.1 50.48 48.84 73.07 97.23 109.30 121.36 122.96 24.17 24.13
AMERICAN LION ROBERT B. LEWIS S (G2) SA 0213 8.50 1.0285 1.0527 1.00000 55.62 54.58 55.10 56.17 54.54 53.54 109.2 50.93 46.98 71.28 95.82 108.16 120.54 122.14 24.54 24.72
AMERICAN LION SAN FELIPE S (G2) SA 0313 8.50 0.9985 1.0869 0.99987 53.81 54.95 54.38 54.34 52.80 56.08 109.9 48.97 48.76 73.09 97.41 109.56 121.72 123.32 24.32 24.31
AMERICAN LION ILLINOIS DERBY (G3) HAW 0403 9.00 1.0056 1.0851 0.99989 54.10 53.10 53.60 53.66 55.00 52.11 106.2 50.94 49.03 73.71 98.44 110.81 123.20 121.60 24.73 24.76
AWESOME ACT GOTHAM S (G3) AQUI 0306 8.50 1.0397 1.0494 0.99999 55.01 53.45 54.23 55.79 53.57 51.88 106.9 51.46 47.35 72.17 97.33 110.01 122.75 123.15 25.16 25.41
AWESOME ACT WOOD MEMORIAL S (G1) AQU 0403 9.00 0.9967 1.0956 0.99988 53.68 52.97 53.33 53.05 54.95 52.27 105.9 50.69 49.62 74.33 99.02 111.35 123.68 123.48 24.68 24.66
BACKTALK SPORTSMAN'S PARADISE S DED 0226 8.00 1.0172 1.0805 0.99987 53.51 51.95 52.73 53.43 53.67 50.38 103.9 51.50 49.31 74.49 99.81 112.52 125.25 123.85 25.32 25.43
BACKTALK ILLINOIS DERBY (G3) HAW 0403 9.00 1.0139 1.0868 0.99967 53.42 51.58 52.50 52.74 54.79 49.74 103.2 51.76 49.79 75.11 100.55 113.30 126.08 124.48 25.44 25.53
BEST ACTOR ALW GP 0131 9.00 1.0413 1.0462 0.99987 55.55 53.33 54.44 55.88 54.91 51.11 106.7 52.06 47.11 71.86 96.96 109.62 122.33 122.33 25.10 25.36
BEST ACTOR FLORIDA DERBY (G1) GP 0320 9.00 1.1202 0.9936 0.99949 55.03 49.42 52.23 56.30 52.58 43.82 98.8 55.70 46.56 73.32 101.20 115.48 129.94 129.94 27.88 28.74
BRAVO WHISKEY RISEN STAR S (G2) FG 0220 8.50 1.0332 1.0707 0.99998 53.03 51.68 52.35 53.55 52.01 50.32 103.4 51.29 49.29 74.94 100.88 113.94 127.04 127.04 25.94 26.16
CARACORTADO ROBERT B. LEWIS S (G2) SA 0213 8.50 1.0087 1.0694 1.00000 55.41 55.09 55.25 55.64 54.95 54.77 110.2 50.28 47.50 71.50 95.57 107.63 119.70 121.30 24.07 24.12
CARACORTADO SAN FELIPE S (G2) SA 0313 8.50 0.9729 1.1083 0.99990 53.68 55.48 54.58 53.62 53.80 57.29 111.0 48.36 49.44 73.35 97.04 108.82 120.57 122.17 23.69 23.53
CARACORTADO SANTA ANITA DERBY (G1) SA 0403 9.00 0.9873 1.0965 0.99998 54.29 54.35 54.32 53.77 55.35 54.40 108.7 49.95 49.07 73.23 97.28 109.28 121.26 122.86 24.05 23.98
CHIEF COUNSEL LANE'S END S (G2) TP 0327 9.00 0.9885 1.1032 0.99973 53.75 52.84 53.30 52.69 55.88 51.92 105.7 50.85 49.93 74.55 99.07 111.30 123.52 124.32 24.52 24.45
CITRUS KID LECOMTE S (G3) FG 0123 8.18 1.0433 1.0534 0.99997 54.22 52.47 53.35 55.02 52.75 50.72 104.9 51.69 48.03 73.32 98.99 111.93 124.94 124.94 25.67 25.95
CLASSICAL SLEW SUNLAND DERBY (G3) SUN 0328 9.00 1.0498 1.0628 0.99998 52.51 50.57 51.54 53.33 50.84 48.63 101.1 51.94 49.53 75.81 102.54 116.04 129.61 130.81 26.73 27.07
CODOY JOHN BATTAGLIA MEMORIAL S TP 0227 8.00 1.0463 1.0614 0.99966 53.40 50.56 51.98 53.57 53.07 47.73 101.1 52.82 49.13 75.09 101.46 114.77 128.14 128.94 26.37 26.68
CODOY TOYOTA BLUE GRASS S (G1) KEE 0410 9.00 0.9740 1.1129 1.00000 53.36 54.29 53.82 52.93 54.20 55.22 108.6 49.13 50.03 74.26 98.27 110.22 122.13 123.13 24.01 23.86
CONNEMARA EL CAMINO REAL DERBY (G3) GG 0220 9.00 0.9625 1.1247 0.99954 53.73 53.27 53.50 51.87 57.62 52.81 106.5 50.45 50.60 74.76 98.61 110.45 122.23 123.23 23.85 23.62
CONNEMARA LANE'S END S (G2) TP 0327 9.00 0.9797 1.1098 0.99961 53.89 53.01 53.45 52.48 56.71 52.12 106.0 50.84 50.08 74.50 98.76 110.84 122.89 123.69 24.26 24.13
CONVEYANCE SAN RAFAEL S (G3) SA 0116 8.00 0.9944 1.0864 0.99999 54.55 55.00 54.77 54.55 54.54 55.46 110.0 49.59 48.43 72.48 96.48 108.47 120.45 122.05 24.00 23.97
CONVEYANCE SOUTHWEST S (G3) OP 0220 8.00 1.0657 1.0220 0.99991 56.09 53.24 54.66 57.14 54.09 50.38 106.5 52.67 46.09 71.00 96.48 109.38 122.38 122.78 25.47 25.90
CONVEYANCE SUNLAND DERBY (G3) SUN 0328 9.00 1.0114 1.0713 0.99995 55.15 54.22 54.68 55.00 55.46 53.28 108.4 50.88 47.88 72.15 96.52 108.73 120.96 122.16 24.37 24.44
COOL BULLET SOUTHWEST S (G3) OP 0220 8.00 1.0888 1.0088 0.99960 55.88 51.41 53.65 56.93 53.89 46.95 102.8 54.36 46.16 71.78 98.19 111.62 125.19 125.59 26.40 27.00
DAVE IN DIXIE ROBERT B. LEWIS S (G2) SA 0213 8.50 0.9964 1.0819 0.99999 55.13 54.99 55.06 55.00 55.37 54.85 110.0 50.11 48.07 72.00 95.90 107.84 119.78 121.38 23.90 23.88
DAVE IN DIXIE SAN FELIPE S (G2) SA 0313 8.50 0.9662 1.1169 0.99998 53.47 54.99 54.23 53.00 54.40 56.51 110.0 48.61 49.96 73.92 97.60 109.36 121.08 122.68 23.68 23.48
DAVE IN DIXIE ILLINOIS DERBY (G3) HAW 0403 9.00 1.0059 1.0970 0.99989 52.66 51.66 52.16 52.24 53.54 50.66 103.3 50.98 50.43 75.82 101.27 114.01 126.75 125.15 25.45 25.48
DEAN'S KITTEN LANE'S END S (G2) TP 0327 9.00 1.0017 1.0854 0.99986 54.48 53.49 53.98 53.93 55.57 52.51 107.0 50.91 48.81 73.27 97.73 109.97 122.21 123.01 24.47 24.48
DISCREETLY MINE RISEN STAR S (G2) FG 0220 8.50 1.0194 1.0728 1.00000 53.95 53.25 53.60 54.32 53.22 52.55 106.5 50.66 48.58 73.45 98.48 111.05 123.64 123.64 25.03 25.15
DISCREETLY MINE LOUISIANA DERBY (G2) FG 0327 9.00 1.0302 1.0590 0.99995 54.86 53.32 54.09 55.13 54.33 51.77 106.6 51.46 47.78 72.56 97.59 110.18 122.81 122.81 25.03 25.22
DROSSELMEYER ALW GP 0131 9.00 1.0340 1.0515 0.99997 55.41 53.82 54.61 55.88 54.50 52.23 107.6 51.49 47.20 71.79 96.66 109.18 121.75 121.75 24.87 25.09
DROSSELMEYER RISEN STAR S (G2) FG 0220 8.50 1.0131 1.0805 1.00000 53.54 53.25 53.39 53.91 52.82 52.95 106.5 50.27 49.02 73.93 98.94 111.48 124.04 124.04 25.01 25.10
DROSSELMEYER LOUISIANA DERBY (G2) FG 0327 9.00 1.0067 1.0806 0.99986 54.62 53.45 54.04 54.18 55.47 52.29 106.9 51.09 48.61 73.12 97.68 109.97 122.28 122.28 24.56 24.60
DUBLIN SOUTHWEST S (G3) OP 0220 8.00 1.0144 1.0691 0.99991 55.24 53.82 54.53 55.25 55.22 52.39 107.6 51.34 47.84 72.19 96.65 108.91 121.20 121.60 24.46 24.55
DUBLIN REBEL S (G2) OP 0313 8.50 1.0119 1.0737 0.99993 54.81 53.75 54.28 54.73 54.97 52.68 107.5 50.99 48.18 72.63 97.16 109.46 121.78 122.18 24.54 24.61
DUBLIN ARKANSAS DERBY (G1) OP 0410 9.00 1.0303 1.0545 0.99996 55.45 53.89 54.67 55.84 54.71 52.33 107.8 51.44 47.29 71.82 96.60 109.06 121.56 121.96 24.78 24.97
ENDORSEMENT MSW FG 0110 8.18 1.0027 1.0943 0.99988 52.54 53.48 53.01 53.11 51.45 54.42 107.0 49.10 49.89 74.92 99.97 112.50 125.03 125.03 25.05 25.07
ENDORSEMENT MSW OP 0220 8.50 1.0113 1.0817 0.99999 53.51 53.37 53.44 53.88 52.80 53.23 106.7 50.15 49.03 73.89 98.84 111.34 123.86 124.26 24.95 25.02
ENDORSEMENT SUNLAND DERBY (G3) SUN 0328 9.00 0.9969 1.0828 0.99996 55.08 54.66 54.87 54.69 55.88 54.23 109.3 50.40 48.20 72.21 96.19 108.17 120.15 121.35 23.98 23.96
ESKENDEREYA FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S (G2) GP 0220 9.00 1.0091 1.0740 1.00000 54.70 54.55 54.62 55.02 54.06 54.40 109.1 50.13 48.03 72.31 96.67 108.87 121.08 121.08 24.36 24.41
ESKENDEREYA WOOD MEMORIAL S (G1) AQU 0403 9.00 0.9824 1.1027 0.99999 53.88 54.21 54.04 53.35 54.95 54.53 108.4 49.71 49.45 73.65 97.70 109.69 121.65 121.45 24.05 23.95
FLY DOWN LOUISIANA DERBY (G2) FG 0327 9.00 1.0057 1.0875 1.00000 53.58 53.16 53.37 53.61 53.51 52.75 106.3 50.40 49.32 74.15 99.02 111.48 123.94 123.94 24.88 24.91
HOMEBOYKRIS HOLY BULL S (G3) GP 0123 8.00 1.0845 1.0039 0.99962 56.90 52.59 54.74 57.89 55.00 48.28 105.2 54.08 45.38 70.44 96.23 109.34 122.57 122.57 25.79 26.35
HOMEBOYKRIS ALW GP 0227 8.00 1.0015 1.0806 0.99997 54.55 55.00 54.78 54.81 54.02 55.46 110.0 49.59 48.26 72.43 96.62 108.72 120.81 120.81 24.19 24.19
ICE BOX ALW GP 0118 9.00 1.0146 1.0729 0.99995 54.63 53.57 54.10 54.56 54.75 52.51 107.1 51.01 48.28 72.85 97.55 109.93 122.33 122.33 24.69 24.79
ICE BOX FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S (G2) GP 0220 9.00 0.9993 1.0908 0.99986 54.07 53.21 53.64 53.50 55.18 52.34 106.4 50.82 49.26 73.87 98.47 110.77 123.07 123.07 24.60 24.60
ICE BOX FLORIDA DERBY (G1) GP 0320 9.00 1.0037 1.0789 0.99997 54.99 54.29 54.64 54.85 55.26 53.58 108.6 50.64 48.21 72.42 96.66 108.80 120.93 120.93 24.24 24.27
INTERACTIF SAN FELIPE S (G2) SA 0313 8.50 0.9802 1.1011 0.99974 53.68 55.74 54.71 54.03 53.00 57.81 111.5 48.14 49.12 73.09 96.90 108.76 120.59 122.19 23.81 23.69
INTERACTIF TOYOTA BLUE GRASS S (G1) KEE 0410 9.00 1.0017 1.0850 1.00000 54.22 54.00 54.11 54.18 54.30 53.78 108.0 50.21 48.77 73.20 97.65 109.87 122.10 123.10 24.45 24.46
JACKSON BEND HOLY BULL S (G3) GP 0123 8.00 1.0635 1.0197 0.99984 56.75 53.62 55.18 57.62 55.10 50.48 107.2 52.94 45.71 70.35 95.53 108.28 121.12 121.12 25.18 25.59
JACKSON BEND FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S (G2) GP 0220 9.00 1.0231 1.0663 0.99997 54.56 53.45 54.00 54.81 54.06 52.34 106.9 51.04 48.12 72.85 97.79 110.31 122.86 122.86 24.93 25.08
JACKSON BEND WOOD MEMORIAL S (G1) AQU 0403 9.00 1.0066 1.0861 0.99988 53.88 52.87 53.37 53.46 54.75 51.85 105.7 50.98 49.22 74.03 98.90 111.35 123.81 123.61 24.87 24.91
KERA'S KITTEN WEBN S TP 0130 8.00 1.0626 1.0440 0.99989 53.66 50.92 52.29 54.55 51.96 48.18 101.8 52.71 48.27 74.27 100.83 114.27 127.80 128.60 26.56 26.98
KERA'S KITTEN JOHN BATTAGLIA MEMORIAL S TP 0227 8.50 1.1427 0.9858 0.99928 53.80 47.50 50.65 55.46 50.76 41.19 95.0 56.64 47.19 75.00 104.19 119.20 134.45 135.25 29.19 30.26
LAUS DEO COUNT FLEET S AQUI 0102 8.32 1.0271 1.0755 1.00000 52.80 52.07 52.44 53.44 51.56 51.34 104.1 50.72 49.42 74.94 100.71 113.66 126.65 127.05 25.76 25.94
LETSGETITONMOM RISEN STAR S (G2) FG 0220 8.50 0.9653 1.1294 1.00000 52.18 53.24 52.71 51.49 53.52 54.30 106.5 49.00 51.36 75.97 100.28 112.36 124.39 124.39 24.32 24.10
LETSGETITONMOM LANE'S END S (G2) TP 0327 9.00 0.9742 1.1183 0.99981 53.20 52.93 53.06 51.96 55.68 52.65 105.9 50.24 50.67 75.22 99.55 111.65 123.72 124.52 24.33 24.17
LINE OF DAVID MSW SA 0205 8.50 1.0138 1.0777 0.99990 54.18 52.92 53.55 54.00 54.54 51.67 105.8 51.21 48.76 73.55 98.46 110.95 123.46 125.06 24.91 25.00
LINE OF DAVID ARKANSAS DERBY (G1) OP 0410 9.00 1.0608 1.0251 0.99997 56.09 53.70 54.89 57.14 54.09 51.30 107.4 52.23 46.11 70.89 96.18 108.98 121.87 122.27 25.29 25.69
LOOKIN AT LUCKY REBEL S (G2) OP 0313 8.50 0.9991 1.0841 1.00000 54.54 54.42 54.48 54.52 54.57 54.30 108.8 50.13 48.48 72.70 96.91 109.01 121.11 121.51 24.21 24.20
LOOKIN AT LUCKY SANTA ANITA DERBY (G1) SA 0403 9.00 0.9932 1.0894 0.99995 54.64 54.34 54.49 54.13 55.67 54.05 108.7 50.27 48.69 72.83 96.92 108.95 120.97 122.57 24.09 24.05
LOST APTITUDE FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH S (G2) GP 0220 9.00 1.1143 1.0070 0.99991 53.38 48.88 51.13 55.23 49.79 44.37 97.8 54.58 47.63 74.83 103.12 117.58 132.23 132.23 28.28 29.11
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME TOYOTA BLUE GRASS S (G1) KEE 0410 9.00 0.9957 1.0916 0.99999 54.05 53.92 53.98 53.82 54.50 53.78 107.8 50.14 49.10 73.51 97.90 110.08 122.25 123.25 24.38 24.36
MAXIMUS RULER LECOMTE S (G3) FG 0123 8.18 1.0657 1.0288 1.00000 54.85 53.05 53.95 56.41 51.96 51.26 106.1 51.69 46.82 72.12 98.00 111.11 124.31 124.31 25.88 26.31
MIDDLE OF THE NITE SAM F. DAVIS S (G3) TAM 0213 8.50 1.0739 1.0285 0.99962 54.85 50.97 52.91 55.46 53.65 47.09 101.9 53.82 47.32 73.14 99.61 113.04 126.58 126.38 26.47 26.97
MINER'S RESERVE FLORIDA DERBY (G1) GP 0320 9.00 1.1099 0.9999 0.99905 55.52 49.60 52.56 56.14 54.33 43.68 99.2 55.97 46.57 73.04 100.51 114.54 128.75 128.75 27.47 28.25
MISSION IMPAZIBLE SOUTHWEST S (G3) OP 0220 8.00 1.0691 1.0228 0.99992 55.67 52.78 54.22 56.82 53.48 49.90 105.6 52.71 46.40 71.58 97.35 110.41 123.58 123.98 25.77 26.23
MISSION IMPAZIBLE LOUISIANA DERBY (G2) FG 0327 9.00 1.0210 1.0681 1.00000 54.34 53.71 54.03 54.86 53.30 53.08 107.4 50.60 48.17 72.88 97.76 110.25 122.78 122.78 24.88 25.01
NACHO FRIEND GOTHAM S (G3) AQUI 0306 8.50 1.0526 1.0392 0.99994 55.15 52.89 54.02 56.01 53.57 50.63 105.8 52.13 47.09 72.16 97.68 110.58 123.55 123.95 25.52 25.86
NACHO FRIEND SUNLAND DERBY (G3) SUN 0328 9.00 1.0115 1.0760 0.99997 54.53 53.73 54.13 54.48 54.62 52.94 107.5 50.72 48.41 72.96 97.60 109.95 122.32 123.52 24.64 24.72
NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR MSW SA 0124 8.50 1.0152 1.0733 0.99998 54.11 54.00 54.06 54.69 53.00 53.90 108.0 50.10 48.36 72.99 97.75 110.17 122.61 124.21 24.76 24.85
NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR SHAM S (G3) SA 0306 9.00 1.0329 1.0554 1.00000 54.85 53.66 54.25 55.46 53.65 52.47 107.3 51.12 47.56 72.31 97.33 109.92 122.56 124.16 25.02 25.23
NOBLE'S PROMISE REBEL S (G2) OP 0313 8.50 1.0071 1.0761 0.99998 54.85 54.21 54.53 54.83 54.87 53.57 108.4 50.60 48.13 72.41 96.75 108.93 121.13 121.53 24.34 24.38
NOBLE'S PROMISE ARKANSAS DERBY (G1) OP