Dosage: Pedigree &
Pace Parameters as a Predictor of Performance in American Classic Races
Each year during the months leading up to the Triple Crown we publish a set of performance-related data called pace parameters that mathematically describe the pace characteristics of classic contenders in their pre-Derby prep races on dirt at route distances. There are seven pace/performance-related categories that measure various elements of a performance including aspects of early and late speed as well as an absolute evaluation of the quality of the effort. For those unfamilar with pace parameter methodology they are described on the 2012 Belmont Stakes Entries page.
For each Triple Crown event we rank order the starters in each of the seven categories from best to worst. We then highlight the top five in each category. Focusing on the top five in all the categories provided unique opportunities in the 2012 Triple Crown races.
First, we determine the total number of appearances within the seven categories of all the top-five-ranked starters. Then we sort them by decreasing number of total appearances. Finally, we consider only the five starters from the sorted list with the most total appearances.
The effectiveness of using this technique for isolating legitimate classic contenders is demonstrated in the first table below which displays all of the top five pace parameter starters in each Triple Crown race listed alphabetically. Those five with the most appearances are shown in color along with their total number of appearances. This is followed by a second table that shows how they finished, along with the results of boxing all five in each race in $2 exactas, trifectas and superfectas.
The results, in 2012 at least, are especially compelling and suggest that the pace/performance characteristics of Triple Crown contenders correlate very well with success in the American classics.
Table 1. Top Five Pace Parameter Leaders in 2012 Triple Crown Races
|CREATIVE CAUSE||5||DADDY NOSE BEST||FIVE SIXTEEN|
|DADDY LONG LEGS||I'LL HAVE ANOTHER||6||GUYANA STAR DWEEJ|
|GEMOLOGIST||TEETH OF THE DOG||PAYNTER||5|
|HANSEN||WENT THE DAY WELL||4||STREET LIFE||6|
|I'LL HAVE ANOTHER||4||ZETTERHOLM||6||UNION RAGS||6|
|WENT THE DAY WELL|
Table 2. Exotic Wagering Results for Pace Parameter Leaders in 2012 Triple Crown Races
|I'LL HAVE ANOTHER||1||$2 EX BOX||40.00||306.60|
|BODEMEISTER||2||$2 TRI BOX||120.00||3,065.60|
|DULLAHAN||3||$2 SUPER BOX||240.00||0.00|
|I'LL HAVE ANOTHER||1||$2 EX BOX||40.00||18.60|
|BODEMEISTER||2||$2 TRI BOX||120.00||70.80|
|CREATIVE CAUSE||3||$2 SUPER BOX||240.00||424.30|
|WENT THE DAY WELL||10|
|UNION RAGS||1||$2 EX BOX||40.00||31.40|
|PAYNTER||2||$2 TRI BOX||120.00||496.00|
|ATIGUN||3||$2 SUPER BOX||240.00||1,906.00|
|$2 EX BOX||120.00||356.60|
|$2 TRI BOX||360.00||3,632.40|
|$2 SUPER BOX||720.00||2,330.30|