Sample Race Management Spreadsheet: An Explanation

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Most of the columns are self-explanatory.  Within each category, dates are listed with the most recent race at the top.  

In the example for Favorite Trick, additional separate analyses are displayed for routes and sprints.  Similar breakouts can be done for any parameter such as distance, age, surface, track condition, class of race, etc.  The example for Marlin displays several such categories.  

Track conditions are fst (fast), wf (wet fast), sy (sloppy), my (muddy), gd (good), fm (firm), sf (soft), yl (yielding) and hy (heavy).  

Medication includes L (Lasix) and B (Bute).

Equipment includes b (blinkers), c (mud caulks) and f (front leg wraps). . 

Style refers to racing style: WTW (wire-to-wire), MTP (making the pace), PTP (pressing the pace) and OTP (off the pace).  

PR is the Pace Rating.  The rating is based on a combination of a horse's own fractional and final times converted into a single number.  It  represents performance integrated over the entire race.  In that sense, it differs from conventional speed figures which rely only on the final time.   For this methodology, the horse's entire pace line in a race is converted to a performance figure, and it is compared to the number for the class-par pace line or, occasionally, a projected pace line.  All pars are adjusted for age, distance, sex, and time of year.  Variants are then calculated in the normal way.  On the scale, a figure of "0" is the standard for an older male $10,000 claimer.  The more negative the number, the better the performance.  Pars for older males are -84 for a Grade 1, -78 for a Grade 2, and -72 for a Grade 3.  Pars for older females are -72 for a Grade 1, -66 for a Grade 2, and -60 for a Grade 3.  Pars for younger horses will vary throughout the year.  For example, par for the Kentucky Derby (in May) is -64 while par for the Belmont Stakes (in June) is -68.    

RR is the Race Rating.  It is determined the same way as the PR except it is based on the actual race fractions rather than the fractional times of the horse being analyzed.  Beaten lengths calculations are as follows: 7 points per length at less than six furlongs; 5 points per length between a seven furlongs and a mile; 4 points per length between a mile and forty yards and nine and one-half furlongs; 3 1/2 points per length at ten furlongs; and 3 points per length at greater than ten furlongs.  

Again, for both the PR and the RR, the lower the number, the higher the level of performance.  

Slope is a measure of fatigue.  It parallels the increase in time required to negotiate an additional distance.  The higher the number, the steeper the slope, indicating that the fatigue rate is greater.  Slopes will generally fall between 0.9 (slow early-fast late) and 1.2 (fast early-slow late).

Int., or Intercept is a measure of early speed and inversely related to the slope.  In this case, the lower the intercept, the greater the relative early speed.  Intercepts also will usually fall between 0.9 (fast early) and 1.2 (slow early).

CC, or Correlation Coefficient is a measure of how efficiently a horse's speed is used throughout the whole race.  Perfect efficiency is equal to a CC of 1.00000.  Any value below 1.00000 represents less than ideal efficiency, although it is almost always greater than 0.99900.  The very best horses continually display CC's above 0.99990 while lower quality horses may not display CC's that high.

The remaining terms are part of the "Sartin Methodology" for describing pace characteristics as discussed by Tom Brohamer (see the Introduction):

EP (Early Pace) is velocity in fps (feet-per-second) to the second call.

SP (Sustained Pace) is the average of early pace and the final fraction, thus relating a horse's speed to the second call and his ability to finish.

AP (Average Pace) in sprints is the average of 1Fr, 2Fr and 3Fr (see next).  In routes it is the average  of EP and SP.

1Fr (First Fraction), 2Fr (Second Fraction) and 3Fr (Third Fraction) are the average velocities in fps between each of the calls.

FX (Factor X) applies to sprints only and is the average of 1Fr and 3Fr.

TE (Total Energy) is the sum of EP and 3Fr.  It is the total available energy based on current conditions of distance, surface and track as well as inherent ability.

%E (Percent Early) is a relative measure of energy used through the second call (EP/TE).  Speed types display %E figures significantly higher than off-the-pace types, although the absolute numbers are greatly affected by the distance of a race.

How all of these figures are interpreted in the analysis may be seen in the spreadsheet summaries for Favorite Trick and Marlin.

One thing is immediately obvious upon inspecting the two colts' spreadsheets.  The "numbers" for each of these high-class colts are quite distinct from each other, reflecting the differences between a precocious two-year-old and a long-distance turf horse.  The following table captures these differences quite vividly and represents the essence of this analytical technique.  Note, in particular, the fatigue and energy distribution parameters.