Sample Race Management Spreadsheet:
Three- and Four-Year-Old Races of Marlin, Summary Analysis

Introduction | All Races | By Distance | By Surface | By Condition | By Class | Summary

Marlin, b.c., 1993 (Sword Dance (Ire)-Syrian Summer, by Damascus) [DP 5-7-14-4-0, DI 1.73, CD 0.43; router type] was America's best three-year-old grass horse in 1996 and a leading contender for an Eclipse Award in 1997 until a career-ending injury prior to the Breeders' Cup Turf.

His spreadsheet analysis confirms exceptional ability on grass over a distance of ground.  His quality remained consistent for a year and a half as captured in the following graphic showing the progression of his Race Ratings.  The graphic also displays the expected improvement from a young three-year-old to a mature four-year-old.

Races by Year:  Displayed an improvement of one to three lengths from three to four while retaining generally the same fatigue, early speed and efficiency characteristics.  Showed a bit more aggressiveness to the stretch as an older horse, yet his increased strength enabled him to finish equally as well as he did at three.  This shows up clearly in the average 1Fr, 2Fr, 3Fr and % Early figures.

Days Between Races:  Raced 18 times between early July, 1996, and mid-October, 1997.  Average days between races were 30 as a four-year-old and 23 as a three-year-old.  His Performance Figures at four were about one to three lengths better than at three.  At least part of the difference is attributable to maturity, but there may have been some benefit to the increased rest between races as an older horse.

Class of Race:  Except for the first start at three, all races over the next two years were at the Grade 1 or Grade 2 level.  The average distance of the Grade 1 and Grade 2 races were 10.66 furlongs and 10.88 furlongs, respectively.  Performance Figures are virtually identical, indicating no class limitations.  Fatigue, early speed, efficiency and energy distribution properties were similar at both levels and typical of a long distance runner with good speed.

Distance:  Showed remarkable ability over the range of 8½ to almost 14 furlongs.  Performance Figures suggest a superiority of about four lengths at 10 furlongs or more compared to the shorter distances.  Racing style also was retained over the entire distance range, although he expressed more early speed below 10 furlongs (higher average 1Fr and 2Fr, equivalent average 3Fr).

Racing Surface:  Raced only twice on dirt in 1996 and 1997, both in Grade 1 events at 10 furlongs.  Although his average finish was fourth on dirt compared to between second and third on turf, Performance Figures indicate no difference in ability on the two surfaces.  The conclusion must be that he was equally proficient on both but that the competition on dirt was significantly stronger.  However, he was marginally less efficient (lower average correlation coefficient) on the main track and had a tendency to use himself more in the early stages (higher average slope, lower average intercept) resulting in a bit weaker finish (higher average 1Fr, 2Fr; lower 3Fr; higher % Early).

Surface Condition:  Performance Figures indicate a three- to five-length superiority on firm turf over wet turf.  Energy parameters show more early pace on dry ground, allowing for better strategic positioning.  The preference for a firm course did not go unnoticed by the betting public.  Marlin's odds on wet turf were significantly higher than on firm turf.